UK local by-elections, 2023 (user search)
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  UK local by-elections, 2023 (search mode)
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Author Topic: UK local by-elections, 2023  (Read 17568 times)
DL
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,496
Canada


« on: November 17, 2023, 10:43:04 AM »

Here's Ballot Box Scotland's chart of the transfers in Motherwell South East & Ravenscraig:

That's a very strong Con -> Lab transfer rate.

Yes, though not unusual. My rule of thumb for Con transfers when there’s only Lab and SNP left is that only a handful go SNP and the rest split roughly evenly between Lab and non-transferable, which is pretty much what happened here.

It’s also a noticeably poor first preference total for the Tories: if there were a full four seat STV election with those first preferences you’d expect them to lose their seat.

To what extent do Tories bother preferencing at all? Would there be a chunk of them who would only vote Tory and then not bother to preference anyone else because they regard all other parties as equally bad (from their perspective)?
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DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,496
Canada


« Reply #1 on: December 23, 2023, 12:56:18 PM »

Its amazing how few local byelections result in switches between Labour and Tory
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