2022 French legislatives

[DL]

I wonder who RN voters support in the second round if they face a runoff between the left and a Macronist

[DL]

Its interesting how a two round system can favour a centre party like LREM at the expense of the more ideologically extreme parties on the right and left as long as the centre party is strong enough to make it into most run-offs. The long run danger for a party like LREM is if their vote share drops and they start coming in third everywhere and most second round contests start to be far right vs far left...

[DL]

It looks like Macron's party will get another majority - but does it matter who comes in second? is there such a thing as an "official opposition" in the National Assembly? In other words if NUPES is the clear second largest block with well over 100 seats and the RN and the remains of LR are way back - does that affect the tenor of French politics for the rest of Macron's tenure or does it not really matter?

[DL]

If Reconquete ends up with 0 or 1 seat - does it fold and get swallowed up by RN? Seems to me that after Zemmour flopped in the presidential vote - there really is no raison d'etre for him to have his own party

[DL]

When it comes to these "triangulaires" etc... I suppose I can see the logic that if you have three candidates with between 25 and 30% of the vote - none of them are likely to stand down in round 2. But if you have a scenario where (for example) in round 1 the LREM candidate has 35%, the NUPES candidate has 30% and the RN candidate has - say - 19%. How many RN voters will trudge out to the polls again for the second round to vote for a third place candidate with no path to victory?

Has there ever been talk of making legislative elections be like the presidential election and only allow the top 2 candidates on the second round ballot?

[DL]

In other news, Zemmour announced he is standing in a Var constituency.

Isn't Var a big RN stronghold? Would RN stand aside for him or would he have to compete with them?

[DL]

If these polls and projections are correct Macron may only have a narrow majority and by far the largest opposition to him will be from NUPES. Does it actual matter for French politics over the next few years if the left (NUPES) is the main opposition in the NA and the LR and RN are way behind...or does anyone care?

[DL]

Do we know if third place NUPES candidates who got over 15% in the first round will necessarily drop out of the second round in the interest of stopping the RN from winning seats?

[DL]

What would happen if the Presidential Majority fails to gain a majority? Coalition with LR?

Would they need any formal coalition with anyone or would they pass some bills with LR support and other bills with support from parts of NUPES - I assume that there will be no party discipline within NUPES and that on many bills you could see EELV and/or PS deputies vote one way and FI and Communists vote another way...

[DL]

Does it really matter that much in practical terms whether Macron has just over or just below 289 seats given that 99.9999% of his policies are things LR would agree with and vote for?

[DL]

Are there ANY policies whatsoever where there is a difference of opinion between Ensemble and LR?

[DL]

Why is the Côte d'Azur so far-right?

I have wondered about this as well. You'd think that anyone lucky enough to live in a paradise-like place like the Cote d'Azur would be too happy to vote RN. Usually the extreme right appeals to angry, unhappy people filled with resentment. Who do you resent when you live in a place like Antibes or Cannes? 

[DL]

I thought old people were the most pro-Macron and the least pro-LePen voting block?