UK Local Elections 2022

[DL]

I assume most if not all of these council seats will have last been elected in 2018. Does anyone know what the estimated national popular vote was from the local elections of 2018 so we know what the baseline is?

Actually i see that 2018 was not a bad year for Labour and the estimated national popular vote was 35-35 - but these days Labour is typically ahead by 5 points or so AND the British tend to treat local elections as an opportunity to register a protest vote against an incumbent national government that is screwing up.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections

[DL]

Word is that Labour has won Barnet and will also win Westminster!

[DL]

A few thoughts on Scotland.

Arguably, Labour underperformed in terms of seats. Again an unanticipated surge for the Lib Dems and the Greens. They had done noticeable advancements, but also a number of stand stills.

The Tories could argue it could have been worse. But it was pretty fkn bad. Lots of demographic churn. 5th in Edinburgh, and it's only two Glasgow wins being a bit...orangey.

The SNP picked up the most seats of any party. It secured it's best local election result in terms of seats and possibly vote share ever.

After 15 years of government.

Lib Dems will be happy.

Greens too.

Keep in mind that because Scotland uses a form of proportional representation for local elections there is ZERO incentives for people to vote tactically for Labour to knock off Tories (or SNP) - in a general election it could be a different situation - especially if it looks like Labour is poised to depose the Tories

[DL]

As more results come in it gets more and more catastrophic for the Tories. Yesterday the spin from the Tory supporting tabloids was that a loss of more than 350 seats would be "catastrophic" for the Tories. They have now lost over 450 with more to come! They may even reach the 500 loss mark!

[DL]

The only possible way the Tories stay in power after the next election is if it’s either a Tory majority or if the Tories plus the DUP have a majority and both look extremely unlikely right nkw

[DL]

Can finally complete the new London map. This shows the councilors elected, so in the event of a divided ward the dot shows the minority party, or the second place party in the event of a 2-MMD  council seat. Data comes from the @ElectionMapsUK handle and their Google spreadsheet. Colors should be self-explanatory, but the nonobvious ones are: Purple for Localists, grey for Independents, White (if in a seat) delayed Post-election Vacancy seats.



Compared to those elected in 2014, the central, western, and northeastern Conservatives got carved up by their various oppositions. The southeastern and northwestern strongholds still stand strong. Lib-Dems had a very good night in their neck of the woods.

What is the explanation for why the LibDems do so well in that cluster of wards and boroughs in the southwest of London? is there anything unique about the demographics of the kinds of people who live in southwest London that makes them amenable to voting LibDem that is not present anywhere else?

[DL]

Another explanation I once heard for the LibDem strength in SW London is that the LibDems have a historic base of support in the south west of England (i.e. Devon and Cornwall) and that when people from southwest England migrate to London they often settle in SW London and bring their political DNA with them. not sure if there is any truth to that or if that is a fanciful theory.

[DL]

I guess I'm just curious why the LibDems can do so well in SW London but they are dead as a doornail in NW and SE corners of London which are very blue. What sorts of people decide to live in the SE rather than the SW?