Why did NV swing back to a swing state after Obama but not NM?

[mileslunn]

New Mexico has much larger Hispanic and the Hispanos are more reliably Democrat than Mexicans who vote Democrat but more variable.  But biggest reason is education as New Mexico has higher percentage with college degree than Nevada does.  Its a big reason why Colorado is now voting more Democrat than New Mexico which was not the case under either Bush or Obama.

[mileslunn]

Before Obama, Nevada was a red state, while NM was already purple. After Obama, Nevada became a swing state, while NM became a blue state.

Nevada was a swing state in 2000 and 2004, it was heavily contested by Kerry. Clinton won it twice

Both were swing states since gaining statehood.  Nevada has only voted for losing candidate twice (Ford 76 and Clinton 16) while New Mexico 3x (Ford 76, Gore 00, and Clinton 16).  In fact since gaining statehood New Mexico has voted for popular vote winner in all but one election.  1976 was a lot different than today as strong East vs. West divide as GOP really dominated West then whereas nowadays only does in more rural and religious Western states, not so much in more urban.  At same time Carter was last Democrat to dominate South.

[mileslunn]

Before Obama, Nevada was a red state, while NM was already purple. After Obama, Nevada became a swing state, while NM became a blue state.

Nevada was a swing state in 2000 and 2004, it was heavily contested by Kerry. Clinton won it twice

Both were swing states since gaining statehood.  Nevada has only voted for losing candidate twice (Ford 76 and Clinton 16) while New Mexico 3x (Ford 76, Gore 00, and Clinton 16).  In fact since gaining statehood New Mexico has voted for popular vote winner in all but one election.  1976 was a lot different than today as strong East vs. West divide as GOP really dominated West then whereas nowadays only does in more rural and religious Western states, not so much in more urban.  At same time Carter was last Democrat to dominate South.

I’m surprised Ford won NM after the tamale incident

He won every Western state except Hawaii.  Texas was the most westerly mainland US state to vote for Carter

[mileslunn]

It was noted at the time that Nevada in 2008 was especially poised to swing against the incumbent GOP. This was cause Las Vegas was one of the Housing Crisis hotspots, and the Vegas metro decides Nevada elections. There is a argument then that even with the 2008 landslide, Obama was outperforming expected outcome.

While not as important, 2008 was when Washoe County flipped as GOP win it every election from 1968-2004 but since 2008 has gone Democrat every time.  Reno being a smaller city likely reflects trend of those becoming somewhat more Democrat throughout country.  Obama in 2008 also won Carson City, but has voted GOP in last three elections.  I believe Washoe County has more college educated whites than Clark County so maybe partly why it flipped while Clark County only goes Democrat due to large non-white population and even then GOP does quite well considering its size and non-white population despite falling short.