Native Hawaiian vote

[mileslunn]

Hawaii is a solid blue state, but GOP usually wins Niihau which is 100% Hawaiian so wondering if Democrats usually wins here or did they vote GOP unlike rest of state and what would approximate breakdown be?  Kind of tough as most precincts are mixed and few where overwhelming majority but any correlation or guess?

[mileslunn]

Niʻihau is not representative of the Native Hawaiʻian community at all.

I figured it wasn't as lopsided but still curious if GOP won here or if went Democrat.  Pretty sure Trump did better amongst Native Hawaiians than he did overall in state.  Guessing probably similar to Filipino community which appears Biden won, but Trump got north of 40%.  It seems Japanese the most heavily Democrat ethnic group in Hawaii while whites pretty close to overall average.

[mileslunn]

Niʻihau is not representative of the Native Hawaiʻian community at all.

I figured it wasn't as lopsided but still curious if GOP won here or if went Democrat.  Pretty sure Trump did better amongst Native Hawaiians than he did overall in state.  Guessing probably similar to Filipino community which appears Biden won, but Trump got north of 40%.  It seems Japanese the most heavily Democrat ethnic group in Hawaii while whites pretty close to overall average.

The Filipino community is quite religious, so I would expect them to be more Republican. I think a substantial percentage of Native Hawaiians are Mormon (centered around Laie, where BYU has a campus), so that is likely to have a significant effect as well.

I am guessing Biden still won Native Hawaiian vote but Trump probably did better amongst them than he did amongst state overall.  Guessing amongst both Filipinos and Hawaiians he got over 40% whereas amongst whites probably in 30s while Japanese I believe are most Democratic in Hawaii so Biden likely got over 70% amongst them and Trump only in 20s.  Chinese and Hispanics I believe are somewhat more Democrat than whites but not quite to extent of Japanese while Koreans similar to whites in split.  African-Americans off course most Democrat group in Hawaii but only 2% of population so not huge and with less racial divides and many in military, I suspect Trump probably did better amongst Blacks in Hawaii than he did nationally even if lost them badly.  I doubt there was any ethnic group Trump won in Hawaii, but Filipinos and Hawaiians were probably his best.  Bush in 2004 is probably last time GOP won any group in Hawaii.

[mileslunn]

mileslunn do you have any sources for your claims re: Hawaii voter group tendencies?

Chinese Hawaiians were historically more R than Japanese or Filipino Hawaiians due to their relative pre-statehood upward mobility out of plantation labor and possibly also in response to Japanese bloc voting later on? To my knowledge there are Filipino ethnoburbs of Honolulu as well as Japanese ones.

My intuition is that Hawaiian Filipinos are somewhat more D/less R than Native Hawaiians, but this is entirely based on my RL interactions with Filipino Hawaiians who moved to the mainland US for school and work. However, this 2020 pre-election poll has the Native Hawaiian crosstab as being more D than the Japanese, Filipino, and Chinese crosstabs (listed in order of decreasing D margin).

Mine are more based on precinct results and guesses from those.  Chinese I am guessing are like on mainland as they used to be GOP, I believe even Bob Dole won them, but have swung massively Democrat in past 20 years.  A lot are college educated but with above average incomes and that cohort used to go GOP but has swung Democrat.  So on Chinese more guessing based on how they vote in other states with actual data like California. 

With Whites, I have Fox News exit poll but also looked at some heavily white precincts and ironically that was one part of Hawaii Romney outperformed Trump and perhaps only group he did better amongst.

Native Hawaiians I know tend to be fairly religious and looking at precincts seems GOP did better in precincts where they are large in numbers but still voted for Biden.