Canadian by-elections 2023

[mileslunn]

Three New Brunswick all safe Liberal ones so should hold easily.  While margins interesting, Higgs has never done well in Francophone parts so whether he is in trouble as polls suggest or not will more depend if Anglophone support holding up or not.  Hamilton Centre will be solid NDP and I expect PCs as always do, to do poorly.  Sainte Anne-Saint Henri favours PLQ but QS upset possible.

For federal none are really swing ones.

Calgary-Heritage: Solid CPC and should win it easily but if called before provincial election possible direction could be first sign of what is to come.  While NDP provincially could win in this area, federally it will stay easily CPC.  But if they underperform could suggest UCP is hurting them but not enough to lose seat or even make it competitive. 

Oxford: Solid CPC but that was a riding PPC got 11% in so do Tories swallow most of that or fall short so could be good read on whether Poilievre is winning over PPC support and is he doing it without losing moderate Tories or not.

Winnipeg South Centre: Yes Tories won it in 2011, but that was in a perfect conditions and I don't see it being winnable for them right now.  For Liberals over 20 points good news, teens suggests probably in minority territory while single digits more worrisome.  Tories won't win it but need to get over 30% if they are going to win nationally.  NDP got 20% and while won't win, be interesting to see if they hold or much of it goes to Liberals.  If a lot goes to Liberals, bad news for Tories as suggests many strategically voting Liberal to stop Tories as I get impression NDP voters dislike both O'Toole and Poilievre, but Poilievre frightens them a lot more.

[mileslunn]

I suspect Portage-Lisgar is an easy Conservative win.  By interesting how PPC vote holds up and how much swings back, but my guess is most of it swings back to Tories.

[mileslunn]

How about Toronto doesn’t elect a conservative mayor this time. Do that challenge.

John Tory was very much a Red Tory so yes a Conservative, but most in the base today would not consider him one.  He was more like what party once was but is much less so today.

[mileslunn]

Merrillee Fullerton is resigning https://twitter.com/DrFullertonMPP/status/1639335799136059411/photo/1 .  This is sort of a bellwether as narrowly went Liberal federally but PC provincially.  Was solid Tory a decade ago but like many suburban ridings has shifted left.  So this could be a good indicator if PC support holding up or falling.  And likewise also sign if OLP or NDP gaining.

[mileslunn]

Sad news, Derek Meyers of Regina-Walsh Acres has died https://regina.ctvnews.ca/sask-mla-derek-meyers-dies-following-battle-with-cancer-1.6332612 so at some point later a by-election there.  Way too young as only 45

[mileslunn]

I suspect Durham stays Conservative as its more exurban than suburban and Tories do tend to dominate exurbs but struggle in suburbs.  Its actually in population density and demographics not a whole lot different than Poilievre's own riding which is close by a large city but still largely rural in characteristics.

[mileslunn]

NDP typically underperforms in by-elections, except ones which they hold or could conceivably pick up, and none of these three fall into that category.

My impression is that in general all parties tend to do badly in byelections in ridings where they are not seen to be in contention and are not historically a factor. Same is true in the UK. When there is a byelection in Labour-Tory marginal, the LD vote tends to evaporate and similarly when there is a byelection in Tory-LD marginal, the Labour vote tends to evaporate compared to what they would get in a general election.

I have found that too.  Harper Tories in by-elections between 2006 and 2011 generally outperformed previous election except in ridings they had no hope in where would often lose deposit.  NDP tends to bomb badly in ridings they have no hope also.  And yes in UK, you definitely see it although with Liberal Democrats and Labour Party, you have a fair bit of tactical voting too.  While parties fairly different, I find when Tories have been in power over a decade, the throw the bums out sentiment is strong enough many will go for whichever is seen as more likely to win.  When Labour in power or Tories relatively new in power than crossover is somewhat less.

[mileslunn]

For elections coming up here are my thoughts on the ones this week.

Calgary-Heritage:  Obviously Tories will win this pretty easily, but second might be interesting and also share of popular vote.  If over 70% suggests in good shape in Alberta and potential to gain in suburbs elsewhere.  60s as expected while if CPC gets under 60%, suggests struggling to appeal in urban/suburban areas which likely means losing where it counts if trend spreads nationally.  Off course by-elections have low turnout so best not to read too much into them.

Ontario by-elections

Kanata-Carleton: PCs definitely favoured but as it becomes more suburbanized its not impossible of an OLP or even NDP upset (latter very long shot) but with left more split provincially than federally and Ford also generally doing somewhat better in suburbs than federal counterparts, I think PCs likely hold this, but upset not impossible.

Scarborough-Guildwood - Likely easily Liberal win but this could be a test if OLP has much chance at rebounding or not.  PCs likely do better than they do federally but would be a huge shocker if they won here and even bigger if NDP did.

[mileslunn]

Does anyone think there is chance PCs could lose Kanata-Carleton or is that likely to stay with them.  My guess is hold it, but fact goes Liberal federally suggests it is not the safe seat it once was and in right conditions could lose it.  But right now seems conditions that would cause loss aren't apparent.  OLP losing Scarborough-Guildwood would be a huge blow and probably severely dampen interest in leadership race.

[mileslunn]

With only four polls left here are my thoughts.

Conservatives: Won as expected, but I think 65% is a pretty good showing.  Sure not as high as 2011 or 2019 but with urban areas trending left its still a decent showing.  Off course its Alberta where Trudeau and Singh are super unpopular so doesn't say a lot

Liberals: Maybe second maybe third but at least get deposit back.  Down slightly from 2021 and well below 2015 high but while looks awful on surface, again its Alberta where outside a few pockets, Trudeau pretty loathed.

NDP:  Also down slightly but up for 2019 but if they were hoping to get those who voted NDP provincially to crossover, failed as AB NDP got in mid 40s here although would have gone UCP.  At same time NDP usually does bad in by-elections and Notley and Singh are very different.  Notley is sort of type you might want leading a united Liberal + NDP merger if it were to hypothetically happen (I doubt it does anytime soon even though suggested it might down road but not in near future).

PPC: Didn't do well to begin with but down however this is more your upper middle class professionals who are pro energy sector and like low taxes, not a riding conducive to right wing populism so never did well here.

Greens: Did poorly as usual.  Lots work in the office towers for energy companies so not exactly the crowd who is going to be friendly to party.

While not a bellwether, I think Durham is a better indicator but still more conservative than most of country but if lose bad news for them and size of win might give some indicators.

[mileslunn]

With only four polls left here are my thoughts.

Conservatives: Won as expected, but I think 65% is a pretty good showing.  Sure not as high as 2011 or 2019 but with urban areas trending left its still a decent showing.  Off course its Alberta where Trudeau and Singh are super unpopular so doesn't say a lot

Liberals: Maybe second maybe third but at least get deposit back.  Down slightly from 2021 and well below 2015 high but while looks awful on surface, again its Alberta where outside a few pockets, Trudeau pretty loathed.

NDP:  Also down slightly but up for 2019 but if they were hoping to get those who voted NDP provincially to crossover, failed as AB NDP got in mid 40s here although would have gone UCP.  At same time NDP usually does bad in by-elections and Notley and Singh are very different.  Notley is sort of type you might want leading a united Liberal + NDP merger if it were to hypothetically happen (I doubt it does anytime soon even though suggested it might down road but not in near future).

PPC: Didn't do well to begin with but down however this is more your upper middle class professionals who are pro energy sector and like low taxes, not a riding conducive to right wing populism so never did well here.

Greens: Did poorly as usual.  Lots work in the office towers for energy companies so not exactly the crowd who is going to be friendly to party.

While not a bellwether, I think Durham is a better indicator but still more conservative than most of country but if lose bad news for them and size of win might give some indicators.

Don't forget, one of the best showings the CPC had in Calgary Heritage was during the 2017 by-election after Harper's resignation. 71% result that year.

65% is still an improvement by 7 points over 2021 though.

True enough although I think progressives are more motivated in Alberta than in past thanks to UCP so the North Korean margins you used to see them winning in Calgary probably a thing of the past.  Based on demographics, I never bought idea city was so lopsided in how conservative it was.  I just think since it was known conservatives would win, progressives were less likely to show up.  Still is especially on south side a conservative city, but 65% in any metro area over a million people is pretty much unheard of elsewhere in Anglosphere.  Madrid is the only city larger than Calgary I can think of elsewhere, where parties on right get those kind of numbers in sections (don't for city as whole but do in most conservative parts) and maybe Milan but beyond that its really only rural areas where you see parties on right getting that kind of support.

[mileslunn]

Also, just in general, I think having by-elections or any kind of elections in the middle of summer is a terrible idea. Turnout would be extremely low, as was the case this time.

I mean it seems pretty standard turnout for a mid-summer by-election in a safe seat, which is to say embarrassingly low. Even I've been paying less attention to politics lately, and I'm on this forum lmao.

I don't this by-election is particularly indicative of anything really, but a lot of "in the know" conservatives are really hyping up Shuv Majumdar, so we'll see if there's anything to the hype. Putting together a strong front bench is a big part of gaining voters' trust, and it's one that the CPC has desperately struggled with in recent years.

Having a strong team that looks like they are government in waiting definitely helps.  I also think in general better candidates more likely to run for an opposition party if they think they have a good chance of winning next election than if they don't. 

[mileslunn]

Especially considering transposing recent provincial results, AB NDP got in mid 40s in this riding and while UCP would have won it, federal NDP only got about 1/3 what their provincial counterparts got.  Yes I get a lot of AB NDP votes in Calgary unlike Edmonton were borrowed ones of federal Liberals and former PCs who thought UCP too extreme so obviously NDP would never do quite that well, but still gap is pretty strong and expected at least some spillover from those who don't pay too much attention to politics.

[mileslunn]

When was the last time there was a byelection in a riding where the NDP has been at all competitive in the modern era?

Yes, I made this point. I guess the most competitive race was Nanaimo-Ladysmith in 2019. They haven't really bothered in any by-election since then, and with good reason. But, it's still a bad streak. It's pretty bad to not even get a dead cat bounce anywhere.

It's not the end of the world, but I do think the NDP should take byelections more seriously. Take the Lib Dems/SDP in the 80s and 90s for example, they built their profile largely by upsetting Tories and Labour in byelections. The Cameron-Clegg coalition killed them and was a terrible conclusion to an era of ascendance, but the fact that they were able to even momentarily upset the status quo of the Tories or Labour always having a majority was substantial (of course with Canada's political divisions, forcing a minority isn't nearly as difficult, so I guess it makes sense that the NDP doesn't have to clutch at byelections as much).

Even now, the Lib Dems remain by-election kings. But that's because a lot more people vote tactically in by-elections in the UK than in Canada.

And the Lib Dems' policy of being "equidistant" between Labour and Tories is particularly helpful with tactical voting. Not sure how true their "equidistant" status is anymore, their stance on Brexit certainly wasn't, and Starmer has positioned Labour to LD's right on social/cultural issues, but the point still stands that the LDs can chip off both Labour and Tory voters to an extent the NDP can't with the CPC.

But anyway, back to the country we're actually discussing. The ONDP's by-election successes in the likes of Waterloo and Niagara Falls during the early Horwath years shows that it can happen, given strong candidates and favourable political conditions. The conditions are there actually, in that the Trudeau Liberals are, if anything, less popular than the McGuinty Liberals were at the time, and there's a large swath of voters who don't care for either the Liberals or the Tories. But it's also harder for Singh to replicate what Horwath did. The federal NDP is perceived as much more left-wing than the ONDP was in Horwath's early years, and while Trudeau's approvals are quite low, he's also a much stronger retail politician with a better machine backing him than in McGuinty's case.

Also Tim Hudak was leader then and I think in those two it was more people unhappy with McGuinty but didn't want Tim Hudak whereas I think federally lots dislike Poilievre but most of those are types who see Trudeau as lesser of two evils so they will go Liberal while those that really dislike Trudeau are going Conservative.  Hudak was not just unpopular with people on left, even many on right disliked him whereas Poilievre at least is very popular amongst people on right.  Just unpopular for those who are not thus why struggles in ridings that are more swingy. 

[mileslunn]

There is also the very small detail that McGuinty was seen as a rightwing Liberal so whe he was OLP leader and premier there was a ton of territory for the ONDP to appeal to. It’s more challenging for the federal NDP to outflank Trudeau on the left.

And it didn't work when Mulcair tried to outflank Trudeau on the right in 2015.

I think Mulcair was a decade behind as Occupy Wall Street focus on inequality and concerns of austerity slowing growth had changed economic thinking.  A decade earlier running on higher taxes on rich (which Mulcair opposed but Trudeau favoured) and balanced budgets made sense but Trudeau picked up public thinking change on those issues and won on it.  While problems with both were mostly elsewhere with former in US and latter in Europe, I think there was a view Canada should avoid going down either road.  McGuinty was largely before either of those two events and governed at time when view was you pushed taxes on rich too high, they would re-locate and deficits were bad so McGuinty represented mainstream thinking at time.  Wynne I think picked up on change on this too although party lost badly in 2018 as by then OLP had so much baggage they were going to lose no matter what.

[mileslunn]

McGuinty was definitely a big spender and on role of market was somewhat like Liberals often are championing certain companies rather than leaving to market.  He did though have Dwight Duncan as finance minister who definitely had right tilt.  Since leaving, Duncan has argued all crown corporations should be completely privatized, something even PCs won't do.  On taxes it was a mix as while he ran on promise not raise people's taxes, he did bring in health premium.  So McGuinty was sort of a mixed bag.  Maybe tilted left but at times leaned right and certainly less consistent than Trudeau but on certain issues was as left as Trudeau but less consistent.

[mileslunn]

I would say on balance it was following for parties.

PCs:  Bad night overall as dropped in both and while yes suburbanization of Kanata-Carleton making it more competitive than past, still 32% is quite bad, worse than federal counterparts got which was 39%.  That being said it is tough to know if overall backlash against government or just PC supporters not motivated to show up?

NDP:  Good but not great.  Didn't win either but up from 2022 and considering NDP historically hasn't done well in either, showing was not that bad.

Liberals:  Definitely a good night overall.  Won Scarborough-Guildwood albeit down a bit while flipped Kanata-Carleton which yes has been trending their way, but wasn't too long ago one of the safest Tory ridings in the province.  Even John Tory in 2007 and Tim Hudak in 2014 which were bad elections for PCs won that riding.  Yes riding boundaries a bit more favourable those two times but pretty sure even with present would have won it although both federally and provincial by-election, Tories probably would have held riding if previous boundaries used as Mississippi Mills lopped off and it is pretty solidly conservative still.

[mileslunn]

For Saskatchewan by-elections later this week my thoughts are:

Regina-Coronation Park: One of the most marginal seats in province so would be very surprised if it doesn't flip NDP and if they cannot gain it bad news for them.

Regina-Walsh Acres:  I expect NDP to also win this but possible Saskatchewan Party holds.  This is type of riding NDP needs to be winning by a sizeable margin if any chance at winning and just winning to even form a more decent opposition.

Lumsden-Morse: Like rest of rural Saskatchewan, solid Saskatchewan party but what will be interesting is how well further right parties like Buffalo Party do here.  If they get in double digits, expect Moe to sharpen fight with feds and move to right.

[mileslunn]

Very good results for PCs although I think those interpreting it with respect to federal is stretching it.  I think you could say Tim Houston is fairly popular and is doing well now.  But federally, I don't think it says much.  Houston is very much a Red Tory and has little in common with current federal Tories so maybe they do well in Atlantic Canada, but maybe they don't; this says little

[mileslunn]

Regina-Walsh Acres all in for preliminary count and final count usually benefits NDP so NDP pickup.  Probably not a big enough swing to win provincewide but seems to jive with polls.  Although does seem NDP tends to do better in by-elections than general in Saskatchewan so hard to say if trend or means nothing like other ones.

Jared Clarke
New Democratic Party (N.D.P.)
2395   54.0%

Nevin Markwart
Saskatchewan Party
1783   40.2%

Rose Buscholl
Progressive Conservative Party of Saskatchewan
215   4.8%

Joseph Reynolds
Saskatchewan Green Party
38   0.9%

[mileslunn]

Regina-Coronation Park flips and this is a much bigger swing

Noor Burki
New Democratic Party (N.D.P.)
2039   56.6%

Riaz Ahmad
Saskatchewan Party
1131   31.4%

Olasehinde Ben Adebayo
Progressive Conservative Party of Saskatchewan
222   6.2%

Kendra Anderson
Saskatchewan Green Party
122   3.4%

Reid Hill
Saskatchewan Progress Party
85   2.4%

[mileslunn]

So far not looking like a good night for Saskatchewan Party.  PCs also doing better than expected so maybe some confusion but also perhaps some on right tired of Moe and looking for an alternative.  While a long shot anyone think NDP has a chance next year in Saskatchewan?

[mileslunn]

Anyone know when Durham by-election is.  While barring some massive surprise, should stay Conservative but will be interesting to see shifts as so far to date by-elections have not aligned with national polls showing Liberals doing much better and Conservatives worse than polls suggest they would.