UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[mileslunn]

So, if Truss is the Kim Campbell in this hilarious scenario, who would the Jean Charest and Elsie Wayne be?

Jean Charest would be one of the Scottish MPs strongly against independence (doubt any Tories in Scotland survive though) and Elsie Wayne some older female MP who doesn't like gays (she was very homophobic)

[mileslunn]

If Truss is Campbell, who is Manning

Nigel Farage maybe as like Canada, there is even a party called Reform and Reform party in Canada was in single digits before campaign started and rose during campaign.

[mileslunn]

How likely do people here think it is the mini budget gets amended?  Seems there are enough Tory MPs who want to bring back cap on banker's bonus and re-instate additional rate of 45% so wonder what happens there?  My guess is Truss doubles down and threatens to remove whip on any who disobey but she may have lost control.  Both are going over horribly in Red Wall for obvious reasons.

[mileslunn]

What are chances Boris Johnson returns as PM?  I am pretty sure if Boris Johnson was PM, party wouldn't be doing as badly.  Trailing sure, but not by 30 points.

[mileslunn]

Fact only cabinet wasn't told about the abolition of additional rate of 45% is telling.  Probably suggests knew didn't have full backing so this was way to push it through.  Anyways even if many Tories may in theory support abolishing it, most have enough sense to know you don't give tax cuts to wealthy when many struggling.  Timing was horrible.  Some point out George Osborne cut additional rate from 50% to 45% a decade ago, but that actually was backed by many independent groups including IFS.  Never mind it was coalition then and LibDems could have vetoed it if a bad idea so had much broader support.  Many economists argue when top rates exceed 50%, it creates a psychological barrier as government taking more than half so actually there is lots of reasons for it not to hit 50% even though some economists disagree.  By contrast only your supply side types think 45% is too high.

[mileslunn]

Apparently Truss' father is not a huge fan of her politics.  Both her parents were fairly left wing and her father is a retired professor of mathematics from University of Leeds.  While not in her riding, I wonder if her father will vote Conservative out of love for daughter or will his opposition to her policies mean he votes Labour?

[mileslunn]

I don't think Truss had a choice.  It was either reverse it or get it voted down by parliament and risk a possible election that party would lose badly.

[mileslunn]

Obviously Truss will lead Tories over cliff edge if she remains leader so to have any chance of winning, need change in leader.  But do people here think Tories have even an outside chance of winning with a new leader or are they finished?  It is almost feeling like people have decide they are ready for a Labour government.

[mileslunn]

Yeah see this is the thing: if you have a lead nationally of 25pts or whatever you basically sweep the board or close to it with FPTP. It's been so long since we've had a General Election with a PV lead like that that there's a lack of awareness of what it would mean if we really did actually have one...

I kind of think it tightens.  I believe around 20% of 2019 Tory voters planning to vote Labour, but barely 50% planning to go Conservative so that means around 25% or so are undecided and I suspect when push comes to shove most return to Tories.  In particular if a life long Tory voter and upset with them but it's clear they are going to lose anyway, some may feel it's okay to vote for them just to ensure a decent size opposition.  After all Tony Blair had similar leads through much of 90s.  That being said with Labour having a lead this big, only way I could possibly see them not winning is if Tories dump Truss and choose someone public likes more but even that probably not enough to save them.

[mileslunn]

Is Boris Johnson likely to stay on as MP until election or possibly step down triggering a by-election?  His seat was already a marginal even before poll tanking and Labour would almost certainly pick it up so wondering if will stay on.