Alberta election 2023

[mileslunn]

I think for Alberta election, NDP was heavily favoured if Kenney stayed on.  No one seemed to like him.  Right felt he was insufficiently conservative so some would have gone WIP or stayed home.  While most centrist who were okay with old PCs felt he swung too far to right and many of them would have voted NDP.

I still think Notley is likely to win next year, but with Kenney gone its less certain.  A lot though depends on who UCP chooses as leader, but likely someone even more right wing than Kenney meaning firm up their rural base, but likely costs them Calgary and if lose Calgary, they lose election.

By party:

NDP: Notley has reasonably good personal approval ratings and the scare tactics will be tough to work against her as people already know what she would be like as premier.  Likewise despite stereotype, Alberta is not that right wing and Notley is fairly pragmatic so gap between her and median Alberta voter is much smaller than many think.  Still her two main weaknesses are economy is doing well which usually favours incumbent and there are plenty of left wing social activists involved in party so she will need to vet candidates closely as unlike 2015 when no one expected her to win; they will get a lot more attention.

UCP:  They have to find a way to unite Rural Alberta + Calgary (Edmonton is a lost cause for them).  With COVID-19 that was impossible but as long as no bigger wave with COVID-19 maybe possible but tough.  Both are fiscally conservative, but Calgary is generally socially progressive while Rural Alberta is very much your right wing populist.  Real problem they have is party is too divided and many still think Alberta is a province where conservatives always win so isn't same kind of discipline to stay on same page like you see with Ontario Tories where they know it doesn't take much to lose.

By region

Rural Alberta: NDP probably win a few like Lethbridge East, Sherwood Park, Banff-Kananaskis and maybe a few more in Edmonton Capital region.  But I suspect most of this to go solidly UCP.  WIP may come in second in a few, but likely wins none.  Not enough for UCP to win on this alone, but has around 36 reliable seats so good base to work off of.

Edmonton:  NDP easily sweeps this and if UCP wins (I don't think they will, but if) they probably have to appoint someone from surrounding areas like Leduc, Spruce Grove as cabinet minister to represent Edmonton.

Calgary: Whomever wins here wins overall.  I think NDP has slight edge here but won't sweep it like Edmonton.  Likewise unlike Edmonton which fully supports NDP or Rural Alberta who wants to go hard right, median Calgary voter probably falls somewhere in between the two parties and lots will be voting for lesser of two evils, not whom they want.

For leadership, too early to say but I think Jean has better odds than Smith does although I still think Notley would beat both.

[mileslunn]

Nobody so far has taken up the one part of the comment in my post that I wrote on March 12, on how it seems, at least somewhat, that the NDP is being taken over by more centrist types who haven't had a longstanding connection to the party.

Daveberta wrote this on May 20:

Notley and NDP MLAs have been spending every spare moment in Calgary.

It’s a full-court press.

They know they have to make big gains in the province’s largest city to form government.

And they have some impressive bench strength.

Former city councillor Druh Farrell in Calgary-Bow.

Energy analyst Samir Kayende in Calgary-Elbow.

Sustainable energy expert Nagwan Al-Guneid in Calgary-Glenmore.

Canadian Forces veteran and police commission vice-chair Marilyn North Peigan in Calgary-Klein.

Physician Luanne Metz in Calgary-Varsity.

Calgarians with impressive resumes who could presumably become cabinet ministers on Day 1 of a new Notley government, which is what she will need if her party wins in 2023.

It feels more like a Progressive Conservative lineup than a traditional working-class NDP slate.

https://daveberta.ca/2022/05/ucp-chaos-good-for-notley-ndp/

Alberta is not a particularly left wing province.  Heck even in BC or Ontario, NDP couldn't win if they were too left wing.  Never mind as main alternative to UCP, they are bound to attract several federal Liberals.  I think its more being pragmatic that most in NDP have number one goal of ousting UCP and if too right wing won't happen.  I would say Notley is a lot like Horgan in terms of progressive but pragmatic.  And Horgan unlike previous NDP leaders in BC has been quite successful.

[mileslunn]

Well sure, but the question I asked earlier was (more or less) 'if you were a longtime New Democrat in Alberta, how would you feel about these people with (presumbably) no ties to the party winning nominations to become MLAs?"

The thing to keep in mind is that outside of downtown Edmonton there really are not very many "longtime New Democrats" in Alberta. Before Notley's shock win in 2015 the NDP was a tiny fringe party in Alberta with about 5,000 card carrying members in the whole province most of whom were public service employees in downtown Edmonton. In Calgary the NDP was literally non-existent and many MLAs elected in Calgary in 2015 were just "names on the ballot". Virtually everyone involved with the Alberta NDP these days in Calgary is someone with very recent ties to the party. Many may have formerly been Liberals or were non-partisan progressives. So this is really no big deal.

Even where NDP has been around for a long time, NDP in BC, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba are generally more moderate than federal or Ontario as those three are main alternative and have realistic chance at winning so goal is to have broad enough appeal to win.  Federally and Ontario, most elections party doesn't expect to win so its more about moving Overton window leftward not forming government thus why behave differently.

That being said yeah NDP in 2015 did largely come out of nowhere and largely due to unique circumstances.  People were tired of the PCs while Wildrose after floor crossing was seen as too right wing and also too closely tied to PCs so 2015 had a perfect storm. 

Heck some NDP members probably former PCs.  Because Alberta PCs always won, you had a lot join them who wouldn't be conservatives in any other province and only did so as the real decision for premier was seen as PC leadership convention not general election whereas now these type have joined party that actually align with, not one they don't but just trying to influence it to be more palatable.  I bet if you look at 2012 leadership race, a lot who supported Alison Redford are probably now voting NDP, whereas most who supported Gary Mar probably still in UCP, although some moderates maybe switched to Alberta Party.

[mileslunn]

Not a lot of polls and probably until leader chosen understandable.  Most show NDP slightly ahead but UCP still close.  While I believe NDP is favoured, below is what I think each party has in their favour

NDP: With no leadership race, they can focus on next election, building platform, door knocking and recruiting good candidates so have head start.  With a realistic chance of winning, they have a much stronger slate of candidates than did in 2015 so very much have image of government in waiting.  While Trudeau may not be popular, things like Alberta provincial police and especially Alberta pension plan not popular.  Most Albertans more concerned about things province can actually deal with like health care not picking fights with Ottawa.  With surplus likely to be large, NDP has fiscal room (as long as oil stays high off course) for big spending promises without looking reckless so UCP attacking NDP as big spenders and not being able to afford it will be harder.

UCP:  Despite my prediction of NDP win, UCP does have few things in its favour.  Economy is doing really well and with Alberta still somewhat affordable on housing front, UCP can make argument things going well now and not worth risking NDP.  UCP has most of Rural Alberta locked up and likely to win some seats in Calgary even if not majority so dominate Rural Alberta + 1/3 of Calgary seats is enough to win.  For whatever reason polls tend to overestimate NDP so unless corrected for that, possible UCP actually ahead notwithstanding polls.  For whatever reason Albertans have a long habit of looking like they will break their conservative voting habit, but when push comes to shove they return to traditional voting patterns.

So UCP while underdog is far form out of it.  And very high probability next election is an actual race, not a blowout like we are used to.  Even if UCP does win, I don't think even their biggest optimist expects them to do as well as 2019.  Its pretty much a foregone conclusion they are going to lose seats.  Likewise for NDP, I don't think anyone expects them to win as many seats as did in 2015.  You need a strong split on right for that to happen.  They may very well get a higher vote share than did in 2015 (they probably do), but without splits it will be a lot closer. 

[mileslunn]

Alberta Provincial Polling:

NDP: 44% (+11)
UCP: 42% (-13)
ALP: 4% (+3)
WIP: 4% (New)
ABP: 3% (-6)
Others: 4%

Leger / October 10, 2022 / n=1000 / Online

(% Change With 2019 Election)

Check out AB details from
@338Canada
 here: https://338canada.com/alberta/
8:13 AM · Oct 14, 2022
·Twitter Web App

So pretty close.  Smith is not exactly helping UCP, but still party is competitive.  She will be real test of whether the double down on base is way forward or not as she has made clear not interested in appealing to centrist swing voters but trying to unite base.  May work in Alberta but risky strategy and almost certain to fail in provinces that aren't as conservative by nature.

[mileslunn]

That poll was taken in the couple of says after Smith won the UCP leadership during what passes for a honeymoon. She has no where to go but down from here on in. Her crazy comments about unvaccinated people being persecuted more than any other group in her life will hurt as will revelations about her pro-Putin views on Ukraine - especially given Alberta's HUGE Ukrainian-Canadian population

Agreed.  If UCP still wins basically will show Alberta votes for a blue picket fence blindly, but I do believe Notley is likely to win, but will still be close just due to nature of Alberta politics.  If she was premier of BC or Ontario, would be a disaster.  In Ontario someone like her would put even rural ridings in danger and in BC the BC Interior ones in danger too.

[mileslunn]

It does seem federally Tories tend to do better in Alberta than provincially so any reason for that as that was case even before you had more crazy ones like Danielle Smith?  Never mind Harper and Scheer were probably more conservative than most Alberta PC leaders and similar to Kenney.

Does though suggest even if Notley wins, Poilievre likely will still win vast majority of seats in Alberta in next federal election.  Although I imagine if Notley wins both federal NDP and Liberals might spend slightly more resources on trying to win seats in Alberta but short of an agreement not to run candidates against each other, I don't expect them to win many seats and even there I suspect Poilievre led CPC would still get over 50% and win majority of seats in Alberta.  Poilievre's bigger issue is can he win BC & Ontario as loses those two then loses election.

[mileslunn]

Pales in comparison to Canada though.  US voting is much more demographically-driven.

US didn't have a single city as large as Calgary or Edmonton vote GOP.  Now true Edmonton Tories federally won more on splits as more voted left than right but in Calgary majority voted Tory federally.  In 2016, Trump did win Maricopa and Duval counties although Phoenix and Jacksonville I believe went for Hillary Clinton, latter just barely.  At same time US cities don't tend to extend all the way out to countryside and big reason Tulsa and Oklahoma City were competitive for GOP is like Calgary & Edmonton extend right out to countryside unlike most US cities.  Areas with urban types densites vote Democrat while those more suburban in nature go GOP.  Edmonton is like that, but in Calgary, Tories even win in central cores.  London is only other place in Anglosphere where that happens and even that probably changes next election.  London as a whole votes Labour, but the very central parts which are quite rich still vote Conservative.

[mileslunn]

Pales in comparison to Canada though.  US voting is much more demographically-driven.

US didn't have a single city as large as Calgary or Edmonton vote GOP.  Now true Edmonton Tories federally won more on splits as more voted left than right but in Calgary majority voted Tory federally.  In 2016, Trump did win Maricopa and Duval counties although Phoenix and Jacksonville I believe went for Hillary Clinton, latter just barely.  At same time US cities don't tend to extend all the way out to countryside and big reason Tulsa and Oklahoma City were competitive for GOP is like Calgary & Edmonton extend right out to countryside unlike most US cities.  Areas with urban types densites vote Democrat while those more suburban in nature go GOP.  Edmonton is like that, but in Calgary, Tories even win in central cores.  London is only other place in Anglosphere where that happens and even that probably changes next election.  London as a whole votes Labour, but the very central parts which are quite rich still vote Conservative.

Don’t the Nationals in New Zealand and Liberals in Australia still win upscale urban seats?

New Zealand and Australia they win in city proper, but not sure win in central parts but definitely in upscale areas unlike in Canada or US.

[mileslunn]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-a-new-poll-paints-a-grim-picture-for-danielle-smiths-united/ another poll out but no tables but devastating for Smith and before bad week.

53% NDP
38% UCP

While could be an outlier, I tend to believe it is accurate.  I think like seeing in UK, even for those on right, if you push things too far they can go over to other side.  Its not like US where you can go as far right as you want and still win a large chunk of the population.

[mileslunn]

I also think in case of Smith fact votes not weighted by riding big reason she won as I heard 70% of UCP membership came from outside Calgary and Edmonton even though only 40% of population live outside two cities.  And while she may be too extreme for Alberta as a whole, in much of Rural Alberta who views are quite mainstream.  Its more in two cities where she is toxic.  Edmonton was always going to be a lost cause for UCP, but Calgary absolutely should have been winnable and if NDP wins as I suspect, it will be because Calgary goes NDP.

[mileslunn]

I actually think NDP win comes more for bigger swings in Calgary, Capital region, and smaller cities.  NDP is already maxed out in much of Edmonton, especially central areas so little room for growth as even Edmonton as you see federally still has plenty of conservatives so party can only go so much higher.  Likewise truly rural ridings loathe NDP and I expect NDP to stay low in those no matter how crazy UCP is.  So if NDP is ahead, that means in areas I mentioned, swing is much bigger than overall swing.

In general not just Alberta, you tend to see bigger swings in swing areas than safe as 100% is maximum and it is very hard anywhere on earth to get over 80% let alone 90% for one party.  At same time in areas where weak, usually those areas that have strong dislike of party so big swings in those only possible for third party or a new upstart party that doesn't have any baggage. 

In 2015 and 2018 Ontario which were wave elections you saw this.  Liberals barely budged in rural Alberta where long hated while in strongholds they went up but not as much as in swing areas.  In 2018 Ontario, 905 belt saw biggest swing towards PCs.  They were already strong in rural Ontario so increases more modest while in downtown Toronto barely went up as PCs long loathed there thus no matter circumstances they were never going to do well there.

[mileslunn]

Here are the percentage majorities in Calgary:
McCall: -13.5
Mountain View: -10.6
Buffalo: -9.7
Falconridge: 0.7
Currie: 0.8
Varsity: 2.8
Klein: 7.7
North East: 13.7
Cross: 16.9
Beddington: 17.4
East: 17.5
Edgemont: 18.8
Acadia: 19.7
Elbow: 20.8 (but AP was 2nd with 30%)
Bow: 21.7
Glenmore: 23.6
North: 24.1
Foothills: 24.6
North West: 24.9
Peigan: 30.6
Fish Creek: 32.7
Hays: 37.8
Shaw: 39.7
West: 40.6
Lougheed: 41.2
South East: 42.2

So, 23-3 for UCP last time. On uniform swing, they would win all seats up to Glenmore with the Leger poll (16-10 for the NDP) and all the seats up to Fish Creek with the Navigator poll (21-5 for the NDP). A tied popular vote would get them up to Bow (15-11 for the NDP).

10 UCP seats in Calgary probably is enough to win provincewide albeit barely, but only 5 likely not.  That being said I suspect uniform swing won't work as you will see bigger swings in Calgary than most of province as in central Edmonton NDP close to maxed out while in truly rural ridings (not smaller urban) they hate the NDP so I don't see NDP gaining much.

[mileslunn]

Obviously next batch of polls will be telling, but below are advantages I think each party has and what is listed in other is disadvantages they have.

UCP

- Strong economy which is usually good for incumbents

-  Large surplus so lots of room for more spending and/or tax cuts (could also help Notley too as people less afraid of their spending plans)

-  Trudeau and Singh are extremely unpopular to Alberta so that probably has some negative impact on NDP but how much is question

-  UCP strongest amongst older voters who are more likely to show up

-  Strong baseline in ridings in that of the 41 seats outside two main cities, vast majority likely go UCP, so even as little as 1/3 of seats in Calgary probably enough and NDP sweep of Calgary unlikely unlike Edmonton

-  For whatever reason right tends to overperform polls and NDP under

-  Unlike most provinces uniting progressives is not enough, NDP needs to win over some who usually vote Conservative while UCP has a united right this time.

-  Most undecided voted UCP in 2019 so more likely they return to UCP than go NDP, but could stay home.

NDP

-  Notley leads Smith by large margins and often leader numbers lead indicator

-  Notley is a known quantity so fear factor will be harder to work as people know what to expect

-  Smith is crazy and well to right of even typical Alberta conservative politicians.

-  Notley is focused on swing middle of the road voters while Smith largely on base

-  NDP is talking about issues like affordability, inflation, health care, economy, otherwise top of mid issue for Albertans, not things like vaccines, sovereignty act which most Albertans don't care for

-  NDP has nominated more candidates so more time for door knocking and identifying supporters

-  NDP has better ground organization and with most elections 40-60% staying home, who can get their supporters out is often just as key as persuading undecideds  

-  Smith has worse approval ratings than Notley did in 2019 and type that typically lead to defeats.  Also lower than Harper 2015, although not quite Wynne 2018 yet.

-  Notley's approval ratings while not great, are higher than Trudeau federally in both 2021 and 2019 and similar to Legault and Ford and latter two won quite handily.  

-  NDP putting a lot of effort into Calgary which is key if they want to win since have Edmonton sewn up and most of Rural Alberta out of reach.  UCP by contrast writing off Calgary and focusing mostly on Rural Alberta which is going to go UCP anyways.  Calgary used to being front & centre in conservative governments in past likely won't appreciate this.

[mileslunn]

First view on Smith's first month in office and not looking good https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/danielle-smith-rachel-notley-ucp-ndp-alberta-janet-brown-1.6638402 .  Note Jan Brown most accurate pollster and tends to have UCP higher than others so while nothing certain, I think not only NDP winning is likely, them breaking 50% mark has a very good chance.  Even on economy where UCP should be strong more think doing a bad job than good.  Also despite what some claim, Albertans more likely to have positive than negative view of Notley.  I think many on right have failed to grasp province just isn't that right wing.  PCs were a bigger tent as well as demographic changes have pulled province leftward.

[mileslunn]

South end not only more affluent, but many work in jobs connected with energy sector.  It is somewhat akin to Montgomery County, Texas which is one of the few suburban counties even under Trump that still votes over 70% GOP.  A lot there probably don't care for right wing populism or Smith's antics and would likely prefer someone like Toews.  But fear Notley will raise their taxes is big reason they will still vote UCP.

Northeast is predominately South Asian and more working class so more like Brampton, Mississauga or Surrey.  Even federally, Liberals won one seat here.  Northwest is really where the tipping point is and if NDP sweeps that, they likely win.  If UCP can hold some there probably narrowly squeaks by.

[mileslunn]

If Notley wins which seems quite plausible, probably even likely, wonder if this changes how conservative politicians elsewhere behave?  Recently it seems many especially in Western Canada and federally have adopted the base policy of pander to base and forget about swing voters.  If in a normally conservative province like Alberta this won't work, what makes them think it will federally?  I think this election could be more consequential in how conservatism goes nationally long term.  If Smith surprises us and wins big, likely cements more right wing populist dominance of conservative politics.  If a narrow win probably leads both sides to claim their way is correct way.  If loses, I don't know how they can continue to go on idea need to go further right to win. 

[mileslunn]

On Calgary being more conservative, I think it is more economy.  Edmonton more a government town and service based economy while Calgary has a lot of headquarters of companies in energy sector and is just more pro-business.  Still Calgary I would say is more your traditional pro free market, fiscally conservative city, not your right wing populist which is why it went solidly for Kenney but Smith narrowly lost it.

[mileslunn]

I decided to look at how each party did in percentages and got following so interesting.

UCP over 80% - 1 (Drumheller-Stettler) so anyone calling them a dinosaur party is somewhat true in sense they won biggest margin in that area although most mean out of date

UCP over 70% - 15 - all rural ridings so no surprise as Rural Alberta quite right wing and likely embraced Smith

NDP over 70% - 3 (Edmonton City Centre, Edmonton-Strathcona, Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood) so your urban central ones with lots of young progressive renters.

UCP over 60% - 30 (this shows divide as didn't crack 60% in either of the two main cities, but got over that in all but 11 outside two main)

NDP over 60% - 13 (11 in Edmonton while 2 in Calgary, which were Calgary-Buffalo and Calgary-Mountainview so very urban central with lots of young renters)

UCP over 50% - 47 (37 of 41 outside two cities while 10 in Calgary)

NDP over 50% - 31 (all 20 in Edmonton, 8 in Calgary while 3 outside two main cities, Banff-Kananaskis got under but over in other three won).  31 over 50% is actually very impressive for Alberta

UCP over 40% - 66 (Only 3 in Edmonton, but 23 of 26 in Calgary while 40 of 41 in rest of Alberta with St. Albert being only one under there)

NDP over 40% - 55 (all 20 in Edmonton and 25 of 26 in Calgary with 39% being worst in city in Calgary Southeast, while 10 outside two main cities but mostly smaller cities or areas in Donut around Edmonton, only one truly rural which NDP won).  This shows NDP has strong base and if they can just improve, they are closer to power than many think.

UCP over 30% - 81 (only 6 central Edmonton ones they fell below that) which makes sense as Edmonton elects Conservatives federally and main reason UCP bombed there is non-conservative vote united whereas federally does not.  Smith only got 4% less than O'Toole did in Edmonton although I imagine most PPC voters there probably voted for Smith.

NDP over 30% - 63 - This showed big rural/urban divide as in two cities, smaller cities and areas within commuting distance of both cities, NDP mostly cracked 30%.  In the truly rural ridings however generally failed.

UCP over 20% - 86, only riding they failed that was Edmonton-Strathcona, otherwise Notley's own riding

NDP over 20% - 79 so most but slightly more under due to unpopularity in Rural Alberta.  However even federally Tories seldom get over 80% in rural Alberta. 

If you look at poll by polls, noticed UCP did crack 90% in some rural polls, some even 95%.

[mileslunn]

A lot of focus of NDP was on old PC vote and convincing them NDP was more like them than current UCP.  Looking at past elections, seems at best success there limited but won some over.  NDP pretty much won over all Alberta Party and Liberal supporters and same federally.  But amongst old PCs, it looks like got some in Calgary but relatively few in other parts of province.  Mind you in Edmonton, it does seem prior to 2015, PCs did do better there but looks like most left in 2015 for NDP and in 2019 either already going NDP or went Alberta Party.  A lot of Alberta Party supporters were old PC types.  Otherwise of PC types who voted UCP in 2019, it looks like outside Calgary, UCP was successful in holding them in 2023.  If anything the few they lost it appears more likely stayed home rather than switched parties.  Otherwise did what Ken Boessenkool did (he disliked Smith and wrote he was not going to vote at all) as opposed to Thomas Lukaszak who crossed over, but in his case pretty sure he didn't vote UCP in 2019 either.

For federal Tories it gets harder, but UCP vote was only slightly below what O'Toole got.  At same time probably fair to assume most PPC voters went UCP so it was close to awash there but does suggest some federal Tories went NDP.  Never mind it seems provincial Tories almost always do worse than federal counterparts and gap wasn't any larger than normal.  Biggest drop if anything was 2019 to 2021 as appears many who voted for Scheer went for Notley, but most of that group also went Liberal or NDP in 2021.  I think that was more an anti-Trudeau vote as Kenney still in honeymoon phase, but by 2021 many who disliked both parties went based on who they saw as lesser of two evils.

[mileslunn]

Looking at past elections, I think in terms of UCP vote losses you can breakdown the following.

Rest of Alberta: UCP vote largely held up here with exception of a few small cities.  While lots of talk of old PCs going NDP, looks like in some rural areas, particularly Northwestern Alberta (where Grant Notley came from) it appears many who voted NDP in 2015 went UCP in last two. 

Edmonton: UCP did underperform PCs further back but got identical percentage to 2019 so that suggests to me any moderate PCs they lost, they lost them earlier not most recent election.  NDP gains came mainly from collapse of third parties and virtually all of that going NDP.  NDP though I think still got slightly less than 2015 and UCP did exceed combined PC + WRP from 2015 so probably some NDP votes then were simply throw the bums out types but not actually philosophically aligned with NDP.  It does seem in Edmonton conservative vote varies more but not sure that is due to them staying home or more most are close to centre so more open to switching.

Calgary: Its clear this is one area where NDP did pick up some old PC vote and no it wasn't just as Gunter suggests conservatives staying home.  NDP only got 33% in 2015, while 49% in 2023 so definite shift here.  So NDP's decision to focus heavily on Calgary was a smart move, just the shift they needed was a very large one and despite positive shift they came up a bit short.

I noticed many conservatives who are more ideological always claim loss is due to conservatives staying home when in reality I suspect its a mix of both.  Rarely when turnout falls is all the decline of one party, it tends to be across board.

[mileslunn]

I would also give as many Calgary and Edmonton donut MLAs cabinet posts while limit rural (will be rural dominated as caucus is).  They came dangerously close to losing several more Calgary seats so probably want to showcase Calgary caucus more.  Being shut out of Edmonton, I think that means those from donut become more important.  On racial front, I would try to include as many visible minorities as possible.  Also more women.  I don't expect gender parity, but probably should aim for 1/3 to 40% women.

As mentioned including only existing MLAs probably smart as any Take Back Alberta types likely to be an embarrassment, but not including them could anger Take Back Alberta.  Could also include a few in lower profile portfolios that are not too important and then when they screw up, as they will, use that as reason they aren't fit for cabinet.

[mileslunn]

With the official counts completed, have updated the pdf file to include the 2023 results (https://drive.google.com/file/d/190e1ieCLhZhtOmR2NA9sp69hg_QjD84R/view?usp=drive_link)

Looking at Calgary, Edmonton & the rest of the province, here's how things break down:

Calgary
NDP - 49.3% (+15%), 14 MLAs (+11)
UCP - 48.3% (-5%), 12 MLAs (-11)
Swing - 10.1% NDP

Edmonton
NDP - 62.9% (+10%), 20 MLAs (+1)
UCP - 34.5% (-0%) (-1 MLA)
Swing - 5.2% NDP

Remainder
UCP - 63.5% (-1%), 37 MLAs (-2)
NDP - 32.3% (+9%), 4 MLAs (+2)
Swing - 5.2% NDP


As I illustrated earlier, had there been a uniform province-wide swing of 6.8% last week the Tories would have won a majority of 25; the big swing in Calgary (which contained a disproportionate number of Tory marginals) was mostly responsible for their majority being cut to only 11 - had the entire province swung the same way as that city, the Tory majority would have been nine, and their province-wide popular vote margin would have been only 2% instead of 8.6%.

This also gives the NDP an advantage next time, as they only need a 2.5% swing to elect their 44th MLA - that is, they can lose the popular vote by 3.7% and still win power. (Five of the six most vulnerable Tory ridings that they need to pick up are in Calgary, while the sixth is in Lethbridge, so this is quite doable for them.)

Also redistribution will likely make it even more favourable to NDP as I suspect under new boundaries majority will be even smaller as most growth in two main cities.  Surrounding areas nearby only areas good for UCP that are growing fast and Edmonton donut was fairly competitive while surrounding Calgary areas more solidly UCP but not enough to counter other fast growing areas.

I also think who is in Ottawa may help or hinder NDP.  If Tories are in power federally, which is quite possible I think that will make it easier for NDP as UCP won't have that card to bash them with.  I actually believe that had O'Toole won in 2021, Notley would have won last election in seats (not votes however) as that would have been enough to pick up those close seats.

[mileslunn]

There SHOULD be a new redistribution in Alberta based on the 2021 census and that redistribution SHOULD create a couple of new suburban seats that are likely to be NDP leaning and the redistribution SHOULD eliminate a couple of underpopulated rural seats.

But does ANYONE trust Danielle Smith not to interfere in the process and try to gerrymander the map to the benefit of the UCP?

If she does probably just leads to further backlash.  Remember Harper's so called fair elections act which was a misnomer and more about making harder to vote for those who usually don't vote Conservative.  It had opposite impact as Canadians aren't as polarized as Americans so fewer who believe in cheating to help their own preferred party.  Some do, but not as tolerated as it is in US.