Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[mileslunn]

I think Lula is favoured to win, but Bolsonaro has a chance albeit long shot.  However he probably makes it much closer than many on left would like.  My guess is Bolsonaro gets between 47-49% so strong enough he can probably falsely claim election rigged and like Trump make handover very messy.  Real question is will military who mostly supports him back him if he orders a coup?  A more decisive loss would make it harder for him to find a way to stay on, not that he wouldn't try.

[mileslunn]

Why did Brazilians living in Japan vote so overwhelmingly for the right?

Most of the Brazilian immigrants in Japan are nissei or sansei, who moved to the country of their ancestry.
Most of the Japanese-Brazilians vote for the right, like an average middle class citizen from the states of São Paulo and Paraná. These are the states who hold the biggest Japanese-Brazilian community.

What is the white vs. black like as is Brazil like US in Blacks going heavily one way or is it more mixed?  I presume Bolsonaro won white vote but probably not a landslide?

[mileslunn]

Why did Brazilians living in Japan vote so overwhelmingly for the right?

Most of the Brazilian immigrants in Japan are nissei or sansei, who moved to the country of their ancestry.
Most of the Japanese-Brazilians vote for the right, like an average middle class citizen from the states of São Paulo and Paraná. These are the states who hold the biggest Japanese-Brazilian community.

What is the white vs. black like as is Brazil like US in Blacks going heavily one way or is it more mixed?  I presume Bolsonaro won white vote but probably not a landslide?

Bolsonaro won the whites, Lula won the blacks, but the gap is not like the one in the US. There is the racial divide in Brazil due to the income divide.

What would have Bolsonaro received amongst Blacks approximately?

[mileslunn]

Actually Brazil makes some sense as there was a time in West, particularly in Europe, somewhat less so in US where voting was largely along income lines.  Wealthy generally voted for parties on right, poor for parties on left.  Its more recently that has disappeared.  Also poverty in Latin America is way worse than anything in North America or Europe.

I think what stumps a lot is when North America and Europe voted along income lines, right was more your traditional low tax, smaller government type, not your right wing populist or culturally conservative like you see today.  As right drifted more into latter, then many wealthy abandoned right, but in exchange they gained more working class.  Despite Bolsonaro fitting latter more than former, it seems voting is still more like it was in North America and Europe 40-50 years ago as opposed today.  Ditto urban/rural split.  Urban/rural split is largely a 21st century phenomenon and for most of 20th century lots of urban areas voted for parties on right and many rural voted for parties on left. 

[mileslunn]

I think this has been answered in the past, but why is Brasília a stronghold of the right? Comparable cities like Ottawa, Washington, and Canberra are stronghold of left-of-centre establishment parties.

It is interesting.  Only place in Europe & North America I can think of still like this is Madrid, but it also financial centre too and largest city so civil servants probably have less impact.  Stockholm as recently as a decade ago voted to right of Sweden, but now usually votes to left of it.  Lisbon still votes slightly to right of Portugal although left won it in last two elections.  At subnational level, Quebec City is a good example as it tends to be more conservative than most of Quebec.  So Brasilia is not only but it seems in North American & Europe such cities are exceptions not norm while in Latin America seems more common.

[mileslunn]

I think this has been answered in the past, but why is Brasília a stronghold of the right? Comparable cities like Ottawa, Washington, and Canberra are stronghold of left-of-centre establishment parties.

It is interesting.  Only place in Europe & North America I can think of still like this is Madrid, but it also financial centre too and largest city so civil servants probably have less impact.  Stockholm as recently as a decade ago voted to right of Sweden, but now usually votes to left of it.  Lisbon still votes slightly to right of Portugal although left won it in last two elections.  At subnational level, Quebec City is a good example as it tends to be more conservative than most of Quebec.  So Brasilia is not only but it seems in North American & Europe such cities are exceptions not norm while in Latin America seems more common.

In Latin America, Santiago has started consistently voting to the left of Chile as a whole and Petro overperformed in Bogota. On the other hand, Buenos Aires votes to the right of the country which is complicated by the fact that the city is a stronghold of anti-Peronism of both the right and the left, so non-Peronist left parties do pretty well there.

Although I think part of the comparison in the original post was in that Brasilia was a purpose chosen/built capital city. As in they none of them are the largest cities of principle economic centres of their respective countries. Which in turn means that they are all particularly dominated by civil servants and public sector workers in a way that other capital cities aren't. Which you would sort of instinctively think would make them particularly receptive to the left.

The only European capitals that might be comparable would be Bern; and potentially The Hague but for the fact it isn't technically the capital (and St Peterbsurg but for the fact it actually stopped being the capital quite along time ago. And even if Bern has some superficial similarities, it is still a much older city and political centre and not really comparable.

Plenty of examples in Africa (eg Yamoussoukro) or Asia (eg Naypyidaw or Isalamabad) that tend to suffer the fact of not being democracies meaning there isn't really much to say about their voting habits.

More common in North America.  Both Ottawa and Washington are not largest cities and more civil servant based.  In US vast majority of state capitals tend to be this too and usually only a handful of state capitals vote GOP even in solid red states.  But true in Europe much like most of South America although not Brazil, capital is often largest city too so financial centre as well.

[mileslunn]

Ottawa is kind of similar, and arguably has a similar sort of pattern to Brasilia where the downtown ridings full of Federal workers vote left while the suburbs, exurbs and boonies are way to the right.

Not really *way* to the right, other than the outermost exurbs/boonies--sensible-middle that can park right of centre on occasion and according to circumstance is more like it.  They certainly aren't *Bolsonaro* right, unless you want to frame Pierre Poilievre in such terms.  (In fact, provincially speaking, Ottawa has generically and contrarily swung *away* from Doug Ford Tory populism relative to the rest of the province.  So the parallels are really more w/NOVA...)

Exactly.  A decade ago it voted to right of country and province as left dominated city centre, but suburbs and rural areas generally voted right.  In last decade has swung quite a bit to left and only reason right still wins some ridings is it includes a lot of rural areas.  Poilievre's riding may technically be in Ottawa but its largely rural, small towns, and exurban.  It would be comparable to Frederick county, Maryland or Stafford County, Virginia which Trump won in 2016 although Biden flipped in 2020.

One I can think of that leans right is the Cities of London & Westminster.  London as a whole very much leans left but central part is a Tory stronghold as Tories won it even in 1997 landslide.  That constituency is where parliament and most government buildings are.  Mind you so is the stock exchange and a lot of the large firms.  Never mind its a very wealthy constituency.  Although margins have fallen a lot in recent elections and good chance Tories lose it in next one