French presidential election, 2022

[mileslunn]

What are changes of Le Pen actually winning?  Its highly likely she does better than 2017 and probably cracks 40%, but could she actually win?  Also if she does does she still favor a referendum on leaving EU or has she dropped this? 

For second round any chance any other parties make it or is pretty much a foregone conclusion it will be Macron vs. Le Pen? 

Likewise since some of her policies will probably run afoul with EU law, while EU come down hard on her or will they like with Orban turn a blind eye and let her get away with it.  I think if Greens win in Germany and Le Pen in France, that could make things interesting, perhaps cause more troubles in EU as often Franco-German meeting tends to set EU agenda and two countries tend to play an outsized role in determining direction of union.  In past by and large despite differences, leaders from two countries have had enough in common they can work together but if Baerbock in Germany and Le Pen in France, I don't see how that is possible.

[mileslunn]

Macron seems to really be surging over his handling of Russia conflict so barring some major misstep don't see how he doesn't get re-elected.  He may even on second round get over 60% which a month ago seemed near impossible.  He did though say he wants to raise retirement age to 65 by 2032 which is good policy (most of Europe is 66 or 67) but seeing backlash Sarkozy faced over just raising it to 62, this may hurt him somewhat, but doubt enough to cost him election.

[mileslunn]

What is causing the tightening?  Is it Macron's promise to raise retirement age to 65 (most European countries are not 66 or 67 so seems hardly radical but can see how some in 50s might not like having to work an extra 3 years).  Other than that cannot see reason but that would seem most logical.