Is Ohio Gone for Democrats Now?

[mileslunn]

For next decade, I would say it is gone, but not necessarily forever.  It could swing back if two things happen

1.  Columbus metro area continues to grow so has more clout

2.  Cincinnati suburbs start voting like Cleveland and especially Columbus.  Cincinnati suburbs still voting quite Republican compared to other suburbs

Also Democrats need to do better in smaller urban centers too.  I don't think rural areas are going to swing back, those are gone.  I think Iowa is gone for good, but its a lot whiter and more rural than Ohio is.

[mileslunn]

Why do we get so many threads about OH being gone, it has a significant AA population and will stay a purple state

Mississippi also has a significant AA population, doesn’t mean it’s a blue state.

Two big differences:

1.  Mississippi is in Deep South where racial polarization is much greater.  Democrat support is usually in teens amongst whites there.  Its usually north of 40% amongst whites in Ohio, high 30s at worst.

2.  Ohio has three metropolitan areas over a million people (Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati) while Mississippi has none over 300,000.  Large metro areas tend to go Democrat and can counter rural GOP blowouts while smaller urban may narrowly go Democrat but not nearly enough to counter rural GOP blowouts.

[mileslunn]

In a number of these states, including but not limited to Ohio and Iowa, I'd like to see what happens once Trump is no longer relevant before declaring trends that only appeared during the Trump era permanent.

David Perdue, Bruce Poliquin, and Joni Ernst agree with this sentiment.

No Virginia's and Georgia trend is permanent because its Democratic  but Iowa and Ohio are actually going to bounce back.

Iowa is gone for Democrats.  Ohio is definitely gone for at least a decade.  Only if Cincinnati suburbs start voting like Columbus and Cleveland ones and Columbus metro area grows so more clout could Ohio swing back.  But in 2024 its not swinging back.  Nonetheless if Ohio has their own Stacy Abrams it would be helpful.  Georgia was not winnable in 2012 and Abrams focused on turning it blue in a decade not next election and that is what happened.

[mileslunn]

In a number of these states, including but not limited to Ohio and Iowa, I'd like to see what happens once Trump is no longer relevant before declaring trends that only appeared during the Trump era permanent.

David Perdue, Bruce Poliquin, and Joni Ernst agree with this sentiment.

No Virginia's and Georgia trend is permanent because its Democratic  but Iowa and Ohio are actually going to bounce back.

Iowa is gone for Democrats.  Ohio is definitely gone for at least a decade.  Only if Cincinnati suburbs start voting like Columbus and Cleveland ones and Columbus metro area grows so more clout could Ohio swing back.  But in 2024 its not swinging back.  Nonetheless if Ohio has their own Stacy Abrams it would be helpful.  Georgia was not winnable in 2012 and Abrams focused on turning it blue in a decade not next election and that is what happened.

Ha, HA, Ha, SHERROD BROWN ISNT LOSING IN 2024

I meant presidential election, I don't see Democrats flipping Ohio in 2024.  Florida, North Carolina, and Texas are only states I could see Democrats flipping.  On other hand Wisconsin will be tough to hold while Nevada at risk.  Georgia and Arizona are trending blue but close enough I could see GOP winning them in 2024 but probably flip back in 2028 or 2023 and stay blue there on.  Michigan possible too but somewhat better shape.  Pennsylvania also too, but of blue wall states I think Democrats have brighter future there than other two.  New Hampshire also possible if next GOP leader a more Reagan like, but at this point I suspect more Trump like.

[mileslunn]

Why do we get so many threads about OH being gone, it has a significant AA population and will stay a purple state

No, it doesn't. We have a smaller AA population than the nation as a whole, and an even smaller Latino population. We are no longer comparable to the nation demographically speaking, which is why we are no longer one of the competitive swing states.

Hispanic is smaller, but African-American is 12% so pretty close to national average.  Cleveland and Cincinnati both large African-American communities as do smaller industrial cities.  Ohio has a larger African-American population than either Wisconsin or Pennsylvania which Biden won.