European ethnicities Biden won

[mileslunn]

We don't have any real data on this and hard to get but just looking at where each live, list ones you think Biden won.   Obviously ancestry less of an issue than gender, age, where one lives and education.  For example, Biden probably won urban white college educated female 18-29 amongst all ancestries while Trump probably won your rural white without college degree male regardless of ancestry.  But still overall.  Below are my guesses.

Norwegian - Narrowly for Trump
Swedish - Narrowly for Trump
Danish - Trump
Finnish - Narrowly for Trump
German - Trump but somewhat closer than overall white vote
Dutch - Trump
Belgian - close to tied
English - Trump (but massive variance, on coasts probably most heavily Biden but in South heavily Trump)
Scottish - Narrowly Trump
Welsh - Trump
Irish - Narrowly Trump but if you exclude Scots-Irish, Biden may have won here.
Scots-Irish - Trump massively
French - close but French-Canadian narrowly Biden, Cajun massively Trump.
Swiss - Narrow Trump
Portuguese - Biden
Spanish - Biden
Italian - Narrowly Trump
Russian - Biden (most are Jewish which Biden won)
Lithuanian - Narrowly Trump
Polish - Narrowly Trump
Czech - Trump
Slovak - Narrowly Trump
Hungarian - close, Biden for Jewish, Trump narrowly for Christian
Ukrainian - Narrowly Trump
Slovenian - Narrowly Trump
Croatian - Narrowly Trump
Serbian - Biden
Bosnian - Biden
Greek - Biden

So ones bolded I am pretty sure Biden won.  So Portuguese, Spanish, Russian, Serbian, Bosnian, and Greek only ones I am pretty confident Biden won.  By same time most close enough that Biden probably won a few others.  Danish, German, Dutch, English, Welsh, Scots-Irish, and Czechs only ones I am pretty sure Trump won.  Scots-Irish probably the most heaviest for Trump.  Admittedly though Biden may have won those who identify as English as a lot of English descent in heavy Trump areas identify as American.

[mileslunn]

Waaat
That's too favourable to Biden lmao
Trump won the European American vote by, what, 17 percentage points?
I'm certain most groups were not "narrowly" for Trump, and *eyeroll* at Biden potentially winning the English American vote.


Here is some context, courtesy of reagente:

I calculated these estimates awhile ago based on the White vote by County project of mine (the granularity is only at the county level, so there is some degree of error here):

I looked at white vote by state and a lot of groups are largest in Midwest where Trump narrowly won white vote (AP Fox News exit poll shows Biden narrowly taking white vote in Minnesota and Illinois, Michigan Trump by 8 while in Wisconsin Trump by 3, Trump by 20 in Ohio), while Northeast which is also quite diverse has Biden winning all except New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania.  New Jersey tied, New York will probably show Biden winning once all done.  Pennsylvania is Trump by 8.  A lot of the big Trump wins amongst whites are in South which is least diverse region for whites.

[mileslunn]

Well for that matter a healthy majority of Europeans would pick Biden over Trump, and a clear majority of European Americans voted Trump over Biden.
I actually find the reverse weirder?

I'll bet the majority of European-born Americans voted for Trump as well.  Of course many of them are old and immigrated to the US decades ago.

Or perhaps maybe since Canada and US are quite similar, European immigrants decide partially on ideology.  The more liberal minded move to Canada, the more conservative minded move to US.

[mileslunn]

Among the European immigrants to the US, probably a split between working class "ethnics" and "liberal cosmopolitans."

Probably also an East/West split.  I am guessing most born in Western Europe unless they came as children voted for Biden, while most born in Eastern Europe went for Trump.  Even in Europe, polls showed in Eastern Europe many were rooting for Trump while in Western Europe Trump is pretty hated.  On a lot of cultural issues, the Iron Curtain still very much exists with areas East of it still quite conservative and areas West of it more liberal.

[mileslunn]

No doubt FSU immigrants definitely voted for Trump.  Not sure about Poles that came in the 80s and 90s.  Or those from the former Yugoslavia (did Trump get a boost from Slovenian Americans?)

Bosnians probably went for Biden as Muslims while Kosovar Albanians for Biden too as it was Clinton who helped liberate Kosovo so Clintons are loved there (I have been there).  Area with largest concentration of Slovenians is Cleveland metro area and it appears Obama won them both times, but then they went for Trump both times, but most are 2nd, 3rd, or 4th generation, very few actually born in Slovenia.  Otherwise they voted same way Italians and other Eastern European groups did in Rust Belt and since many are white working class they swung from Obama to Trump.