European ethnicities Biden won

[mileslunn]

We don't have any real data on this and hard to get but just looking at where each live, list ones you think Biden won.   Obviously ancestry less of an issue than gender, age, where one lives and education.  For example, Biden probably won urban white college educated female 18-29 amongst all ancestries while Trump probably won your rural white without college degree male regardless of ancestry.  But still overall.  Below are my guesses.

Norwegian - Narrowly for Trump
Swedish - Narrowly for Trump
Danish - Trump
Finnish - Narrowly for Trump
German - Trump but somewhat closer than overall white vote
Dutch - Trump
Belgian - close to tied
English - Trump (but massive variance, on coasts probably most heavily Biden but in South heavily Trump)
Scottish - Narrowly Trump
Welsh - Trump
Irish - Narrowly Trump but if you exclude Scots-Irish, Biden may have won here.
Scots-Irish - Trump massively
French - close but French-Canadian narrowly Biden, Cajun massively Trump.
Swiss - Narrow Trump
Portuguese - Biden
Spanish - Biden
Italian - Narrowly Trump
Russian - Biden (most are Jewish which Biden won)
Lithuanian - Narrowly Trump
Polish - Narrowly Trump
Czech - Trump
Slovak - Narrowly Trump
Hungarian - close, Biden for Jewish, Trump narrowly for Christian
Ukrainian - Narrowly Trump
Slovenian - Narrowly Trump
Croatian - Narrowly Trump
Serbian - Biden
Bosnian - Biden
Greek - Biden

So ones bolded I am pretty sure Biden won.  So Portuguese, Spanish, Russian, Serbian, Bosnian, and Greek only ones I am pretty confident Biden won.  By same time most close enough that Biden probably won a few others.  Danish, German, Dutch, English, Welsh, Scots-Irish, and Czechs only ones I am pretty sure Trump won.  Scots-Irish probably the most heaviest for Trump.  Admittedly though Biden may have won those who identify as English as a lot of English descent in heavy Trump areas identify as American.

[Asta]

Wild guess from me

Biden: Bosnian
Trump won by 1-4: Serbian, Russian, Ukrainian, Greek, Hungarian, Portuguese, Spanish
Trump won by 5-9 : Swedish, Finnish, Italian, Slovak, Slovenian, Lithuanian, Polish
Trump won by 10-15: All others
Trump won by 15+: Scots-Irish

To be honest, I wouldn't be surprised if Biden did not win any of them.
Biden may have won Russians with significant % of them being Jews, but with huge number of Russian immigrants in the past several years, this seems more doubtful.

[It’s so Joever]

Why would Trump not win Serbians?
Wouldn’t they be more likely to vote like Poles?

[Asta]

Why would Trump not win Serbians?
Wouldn’t they be more likely to vote like Poles?

Typo. I meant to put Serbians in tilt Trump column. Bosnia on the other hand may have gone to Biden by a hair though I'm not at all confident.

[Seattle]

Bosnian - Biden
Greek - Biden

This is quite literally me.

[It’s so Joever]

Why would Trump not win Serbians?
Wouldn’t they be more likely to vote like Poles?

Typo. I meant to put Serbians in tilt Trump column. Bosnia on the other hand may have gone to Biden by a hair though I'm not at all confident.

I’m hopeful in Bosnians.
The religious divide and the fact most of them are newer immigrants should be enough.
Hopefully.

[lfromnj]

French Canadian in Maine swung towards Trump again . They were 70% Obama in 2012 but now voted for trump.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Waaat
That's too favourable to Biden lmao
Trump won the European American vote by, what, 17 percentage points?
I'm certain most groups were not "narrowly" for Trump, and *eyeroll* at Biden potentially winning the English American vote.


Here is some context, courtesy of reagente:

I calculated these estimates awhile ago based on the White vote by County project of mine (the granularity is only at the county level, so there is some degree of error here):

[Brittain33]

I'm guessing those Russian and Polish numbers are significantly shifted left by Jews?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Trump won the European American vote by, what, 17 percentage points?
I'm certain most groups were not "narrowly" for Trump, and *eyeroll* at Biden potentially winning the English American vote.

I think the English vote comment was about regional variance. White people in the Tidewater/Lowland South+Mormons are mostly English. So are a bunch of UMC liberals in big metro areas. I'm sure the English vote in NY/CA/NJ/PA/MD/WA/CT/UT/etc was one of Biden's strongest white demographics, while it was one of his weakest in AL/MS/NC/SC/etc.

Also, a lot of groups definitely were narrowly Trump considering the white vote was closeish.

[mileslunn]

Waaat
That's too favourable to Biden lmao
Trump won the European American vote by, what, 17 percentage points?
I'm certain most groups were not "narrowly" for Trump, and *eyeroll* at Biden potentially winning the English American vote.


Here is some context, courtesy of reagente:

I calculated these estimates awhile ago based on the White vote by County project of mine (the granularity is only at the county level, so there is some degree of error here):

I looked at white vote by state and a lot of groups are largest in Midwest where Trump narrowly won white vote (AP Fox News exit poll shows Biden narrowly taking white vote in Minnesota and Illinois, Michigan Trump by 8 while in Wisconsin Trump by 3, Trump by 20 in Ohio), while Northeast which is also quite diverse has Biden winning all except New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania.  New Jersey tied, New York will probably show Biden winning once all done.  Pennsylvania is Trump by 8.  A lot of the big Trump wins amongst whites are in South which is least diverse region for whites.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Trump won the European American vote by, what, 17 percentage points?
I'm certain most groups were not "narrowly" for Trump, and *eyeroll* at Biden potentially winning the English American vote.

I think the English vote comment was about regional variance. White people in the Tidewater/Lowland South+Mormons are mostly English. So are a bunch of UMC liberals in big metro areas. I'm sure the English vote in NY/CA/NJ/PA/MD/WA/CT/UT/etc was one of Biden's strongest white demographics, while it was one of his weakest in AL/MS/NC/SC/etc.

Also, a lot of groups definitely were narrowly Trump considering the white vote was closeish.

Yeah I understand the regional variance, I was referring to the very last comment about self-reported American ancestry (which is mostly Scotch-Irish actually I think?) versus English ancestry, which sounded off.

I guess it depends on the definition of "narrowly"... but I'd be quite shocked if Trump won the Irish (or Scottish!) by less than 5 points.

[H. Ross Peron]

The Dutch vote went overwhelmingly for Trump but narrowed considerably compared to recent Republican candidates due to Dutch Calvinist voters being similar to Mormons in having very conservative cultural and theological views but also a distinctly middle-class bourgeois ethos not very amenable to Trumpian populism.

[Skye]

Fall River, MA, has a good chunk of Portuguese-Americans and it swung to Trump. He still lost the city, but it stands out on the swing map.

[Tender Branson]

Are Austrians lumped together with the Germans ?

[Mike88]

Fall River, MA, has a good chunk of Portuguese-Americans and it swung to Trump. He still lost the city, but it stands out in the swing map.

Indeed, the Portuguese-American community seems to have swung in favour of Trump in this election. The counties where there is a big % of Portuguese-Americans communities in Massachusetts, New Jersey and California, all had a swing towards Trump although the magnitude varies: in Massachusetts it was quite a strong swing, while in California/New Jersey the swing may have been a bit smaller.

Not sure about the reasons, however, Portuguese-Americans tend to be more conservative as the mail ballots for general elections in Portugal show: the US vote tends to be more in favour of PSD/CDS and other smaller rightwing parties. The Socialism thing may have had an impact in the community also.

[Tender Branson]

Are Austrians lumped together with the Germans ?

Most Austrians settled in CA, NY, PA, OH and WI - so who knows how they voted.

I assume slightly for Biden.

[Sir Mohamed]

It's really ironic Trump won most European ethnics when at the same time barely any European country would have voted for him. Vast majority of Europeans wanted Biden to win. Trump would have been wiped out in Scandinavia, Germany, France, Austria, the Netherlands and even most Southern countries.

[Torrain]

Come on Scots. You’re letting us down!

_{I mean, I know we accidentally gave the world Donald Trump, by scaring off Mary Anne MacLeod, who ran away from our collapsing economy to New York and into the arms of Fred Trump. It was an accident though. We promise.}

[Asta]

It's really ironic Trump won most European ethnics when at the same time barely any European country would have voted for him. Vast majority of Europeans wanted Biden to win. Trump would have been wiped out in Scandinavia, Germany, France, Austria, the Netherlands and even most Southern countries.

I don't think the origin is as important as nativism vs non-nativism. The ones who most identify as natives are more likely to vote for preservation of self-interest instead of looking out for minority groups. You can see that those who plainly identify as "American" were most likely to vote for Trump.

Also, once immigrants live in a country long enough, they tend to align their views more uniform to the standards of the country.

I also speculate that some sort of self-selection in immigration is in play here. The ones who tend to immigrate tend to be disproportionately more Christian than their native counterparts.

[Non Swing Voter]

None of those numbers look accurate or scientific.  They tend to contradict voting behavior that is well known, such as the fact that Republicans actually tend to lose the white vote by quite a lot when you factor out white-evangelicals.  This would suggest that Irish, Italians, and other groups probably voted for Biden in larger numbers than the above suggests.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Are Austrians lumped together with the Germans ?

Most Austrians settled in CA, NY, PA, OH and WI - so who knows how they voted.

I assume slightly for Biden.

I have some Austrian ancestry and I voted for Biden, if that makes you feel better.

[King of Kensington]

I like this ancestry map, as it puts English + American and many of the so-called "Scotch-Irish" together*, as well as a Scandinavian combination (which helps separate German and Scandinavian areas of the upper Midwest):

https://i.redd.it/ukv4tc3enmt21.png

* The "English" and "Scotch-Irish" are all white people of British ancestry, and are basically the same group - so it makes sense to cluster them together.  The so-called "Celtic South" thesis is weird neo-Confederate pseudo-history.

[Tender Branson]

Are Austrians lumped together with the Germans ?

Most Austrians settled in CA, NY, PA, OH and WI - so who knows how they voted.

I assume slightly for Biden.

I have some Austrian ancestry and I voted for Biden, if that makes you feel better.

Some also settled in NJ.

It's unclear though what Austrian ancestry even means in the US.

A lot of Austrians at the time were registered as "Germans", because they spoke some kind of German.

And some might have claimed Austrian ancestry, even though their ancestors came from the Austrian-Hungarian Empire and not from today's post 1918-borders Austria.

Since 1918, emigration to the US has gone down significantly and especially after the 1950s when the economy started booming after WW2.

Last year, there were actually more Americans immigrating to Austria than Austrians emigrating to the US ...

Because Austrians tend to very quickly assimilate into US culture, I assume that they mostly vote like the US as a whole: coastal Austro-Americans voted for Biden, inland Austro-Americans (PA, OH, WI) voted more for Trump.

[BlueSwan]

Seems completely weird that Scandi-Americans voted for Trump. Everybody in actual Scandinavia pretty much despises Trump.