Cities vs. rest of county

[mileslunn]

I think in Seattle metro area, Asians likely swung towards Biden.  A lot are university educated and work in areas like tech sector so would be naturally turned off by Trump.  Unlike Hispanics, I believe Asians as a whole did not swing towards Trump, notable exception being Vietnamese-Americans who did for same reason Cuban-Americans did.

[mileslunn]

This gives https://er.ncsbe.gov/contest_details.html?election_dt=11/03/2020&county_id=60&contest_id=1373 Mecklenburg County so if anyone can just tell me which precincts in terms of range are Charlotte proper vs. suburbs of Mecklenburg County

[mileslunn]

Travis County as shown below

Austin

Biden: 77.3%
Trump 20.2%

Rest of Travis County

Biden: 59.4%
Trump: 39%

[mileslunn]

Dallas County

Dallas

Biden: 69.7%
Trump: 27.5%

Rest of Dallas County

Biden: 60.7%
Trump: 38.3%

[mileslunn]

This gives https://er.ncsbe.gov/contest_details.html?election_dt=11/03/2020&county_id=60&contest_id=1373 Mecklenburg County so if anyone can just tell me which precincts in terms of range are Charlotte proper vs. suburbs of Mecklenburg County

You can figure out the precincts by looking at a race confined to Charlotte like this one. Issue is that mail-in votes are lumped into one central precinct so you'd probably have to figure out some form of estimation.

Perfect I will work on that later.  Probably quicker to just calculate precincts outside and subtract from there.

[mileslunn]

LA County but only enight final results (missing about 1.2 million counted after eday)

LA

Biden 77.3%
Trump 20.9%

Rest of LA County

Biden 68.1%
Trump 30.0%

El Paso County

El Paso

Biden 66.9%
Trump 31.3%

Rest of El Paso County

Biden 65.5%
Trump 32.6%

Do you have a link to LA county results by municipality?  For El Paso looks like almost no divide between city and rest of county which is unusual but again also in Rio Grande Valley where votes more along ethnic lines although Trump did see strong swings amongst Hispanics towards him.

[mileslunn]

For Mecklenburg County, this is rough approximation.  They only give for in person votes, not absentee breakdown so I adjusted.  Below is actual for in person and then beside is estimated.

Total

In person                   Total

Biden: 63.6%              66.7%
Trump  34.7%             31.6%

Charlotte

In Person                       Approximate Total

Biden: 67.9%                   71.2%
Trump: 30.4%                  27.7%

Rest of Mecklenburg County

In Person                Approximate Total

Trump: 54.1%          49.3%
Biden:  44.4%          46.6%

So pretty sure Trump won rest of Mecklenburg County suggesting that if Charlotte suburbs especially if you include adjacent counties voted more like Atlanta suburbs would have been enough for Biden to win state.

[mileslunn]

I want to see Houston vs. rest of Harris County.

Houston

Biden: 63.9%
Trump 34.8%

Rest of Harris County

Trump: 49.9%
Biden 48.8%

Question: How did you compile this? Houston's city limits don't match precinct shapes.

I got this off twitter from someone who does maps.  Its an estimate not precise but close enough.  Whichever municipality the precincts are predominately in is used.

[mileslunn]

A summary of ones still outstanding I am looking for:

Sacramento vs. rest of Sacramento county
Las Vegas vs. rest of Clark County
Phoenix vs. rest of Maricopa County
Tucson vs. rest of Pima County
Omaha vs. rest of Douglas County
Tulsa vs. rest of Tulsa County
OKC vs. rest of Oklahoma County
Indianapolis vs. rest of Marion County
Memphis vs. rest of Shelby County
Rochester vs. rest of Monroe County
Buffalo vs. rest of Erie County (once counting finished)
Raleigh vs. rest of Wake County
Jacksonville vs. rest of Duval County
Tampa vs. rest of Hillsborough County
Orlando vs. rest of Orange County
Miami vs. rest of Miami-Dade County.

[mileslunn]

I was able to figure this out by calculating Pima county totals minus Tucson and I get following:

Tucson

Biden:  65.4%
Trump: 32.6%

Rest of Pima County - Total votes 262,393 votes

Biden: 51.9% (136,356 votes)
Trump: 47.1% (123,823 votes)

[mileslunn]

Here is Honolulu

Honolulu

Biden: 67.3% (122,804 votes)
Trump: 30.4% (55,367 votes)

Rest of Honolulu County

Biden: 58.1% (116,065 votes)
Trump: 40.5% (80,892 votes)

[mileslunn]

Could someone get the data for Portland vs the rest of Multnomah County, Las Vegas vs the rest of Clark County, Wichita vs the rest of Sedgewick County, and Little Rock vs the rest of Pulaski County.

We have Portland vs. Multonomah County earlier.  I checked three mentioned but not up yet but will check again and maybe someone else is able to get the data for those three.

[mileslunn]

I guess I stand corrected. Looks like Trump gained in Seattle proper by a similar amount as in Portland proper after all?

Just a tiny bit. The margin overall still grew in favor of Biden.

In a lot of urban cores, Democrats were maxed out anyways so more a dead cat bounce for Trump.  Also raw vote margin still widened.  In urban cores, Democrats job is to increase turnout as not many votes left to win over.  Its in suburbs and rural areas they need to try and swing over votes and were successful in former but failed in latter.

[mileslunn]

Here are the rest of the counties for each

rest of Franklin County:

Biden:  137,362 (54.3%)
Trump: 106,402 (42%)
Total: 253,199

Biden dominated Northern suburbs, but Southern which I think are more working class voted for Trump.  Westerville where Kasich comes from went for Biden by almost 15 points, while I believe Romney in 2012 won Westerville so Kasich was in line with many where he lived even if not in much of his state.

rest of Cuyahoga County

Biden: 304,537 (62%)
Trump: 172,268 (35.9%)
Total:  491,453

So lots of shifting similar to nationally.  Southern suburbs such as Parma which voted for Obama both times flipped to Trump in 2016 and stayed there in 2020.  By contrast the more affluent ones like Westlake and Bay Village went for McCain in 2008 and Romney in 2012 but Clinton in 2016 and Biden by a somewhat larger margin.  Otherwise affluent suburbs swung towards Biden but white working class swung hard to Trump in 2016 and stayed with him in 2020.

rest of Hamilton County

Biden:  139,647 (47%)
Trump: 149,089 (50.2%)
Total: 296,991

Long term if Democrats want to retake Ohio, they probably need to start getting Cincinnati suburbs to vote like other Midwestern suburbs as neighboring counties still went over 60% for Trump.  And even that might not be quite enough but make it closer and thus modest gains elsewhere needed.

rest of Lucas County

Biden:  43,749 (46.5%)
Trump:  47,112 (50%)
Total: 94,065

rest of Summit County

Biden: 97,833  (47.8%)
Trump: 100,949 (49.3%)
Total:  204,775

[mileslunn]

Here is rest of Montgomery County

rest of Montgomery County

Biden: 98,352 (45.1%)
Trump: 114,050 (52.3%)
Total:  217,902

[mileslunn]

While unincorporated how do Vashon Island vote and also how did Bainbridge Island in neighboring Kitsap County vote.  Liberal island enclaves.  Also do you have Pierce County by municipality as Tacoma I think went heavily for Biden and since Trump got north of 40% there its likely he won some municipalities there.

[mileslunn]

Anybody know what date California posts their municipal breakdown?  Be interested in Nevada with how Clark County went.  Did Trump hold Henderson or did that flip to Biden.  Other is New York state as Monroe and Erie counties now finalized but not sure if they give municipal breakdown but looks like Biden did a lot better than Clinton so wouldn't be surprised if Biden won rest of Erie county and almost certainly won rest of Monroe County.

[mileslunn]

For Erie County, New York and these are the final posted on twitter WRGZ

Buffalo:

Biden 79,581 (79%)
Trump: 18,751 (18.6%)
Total: 100,792

Rest of Erie County

Biden: 187,593 (49.9%)
Trump: 178,776 (47.5%)
Total: 375,995

Biden won Buffalo, Lackawanna, Tonowanda (city), Amherst, Aurora, Cheektowaga (gain from Trump), Tonowanda (town)

[mileslunn]

Curious why New York has Conservative party and Working Families yet former has some nominee as GOP and latter same as Democrat so why some split votes, any rationale here even though same president?

[mileslunn]

Here is for Albany county, New York

Albany:

Biden: 29,243 (81.2%)
Trump: 5,727 (15.9%)
Total: 36,001

Rest of Albany County

Biden: 70,231 (59.2%)
Trump: 45,354 (38.2%)
Total 118,276

[mileslunn]

Can someone do Phoenix vs the rest of Maricopa County

I would like that too and also Las Vegas vs. rest of Clark County.  For New York and California, they are pretty good of posting results by municipality so just waiting for them to be finalized.

[mileslunn]

Got one for Shelby County and Memphis, just need to enter into spreadsheet, but should get that later today.

[mileslunn]

Here it is

Memphis:

Biden: 175,428 (76.8%)
Trump: 49,272 (21.6%)
Total: 228,521

Rest of Shelby County

Trump:  80,543 (52.5%)
Biden:  70,677 (46.1%)
Total: 153,362

[mileslunn]

Here is exact for Atlanta vs. rest of Fulton County.  Note this is only Atlanta portion in Fulton County, excludes DeKalb county which doesn't breakdown by municipality, but probably still similar to below.

Atlanta:

Biden:  179,264 (81.8%)
Trump:  37,132 (17%)
Total:  219,047

rest of Fulton County

Biden:  201,880 (66.1%)
Trump: 100,108 (32.8%)
Total:  305,623

Only municipalities Trump won are Chattahoochee Hills (fairly rural) and Milton (on extreme northern edge, ironically Biden won Mountain Park which is fairly rural and 95% white).  Even northern parts of Fulton County which normally go GOP swung to Biden.

[mileslunn]

Here it is

Memphis:

Biden: 175,428 (76.8%)
Trump: 49,272 (21.6%)
Total: 228,521

Rest of Shelby County

Trump:  80,543 (52.5%)
Biden:  70,677 (46.1%)
Total: 153,362

Interesting that Memphis cast more votes than Atlanta, but the suburbs have so few votes compared to the ATL suburbs. Does Memphis city just contain a lot of suburban areas similar to Charlotte?

It does indeed although it seems in Shelby County very racially polarized and perhaps municipal boundaries divided on racial lines as Memphis is over 60% African-American, while suburbs predominately white.