Cities vs. rest of county

[mileslunn]

Anyone want to try Fort Smith, AR or Jonesboro, AR for both 2016 and 2020?

I will work on them over next week.  Just to point out this was more to focus on large metro areas.  Essentially I created it to get greater detail how suburbs voted as looking just at neighboring counties only works in independent cities like San Francisco, Baltimore, Philadelphia etc.  Doesn't work when county includes suburbs and even can reveal interesting things.  Clark and Maricopa County are entire metro area so breaking it down shows division.  For Cleveland and Columbus, just looking at adjacent suburbs would suggest Trump won suburbs, but include Cuyahoga and Franklin county suburbs, looks like a split with Biden winning most close by suburbs and Trump only winning outerlying ones.  Even King County in Washington showed suburbs were even more lopsided for Biden then if you just looked at Snohomish and Pierce Counties.

I will however include those but perhaps we should do a separate thread for smaller cities as most smaller tend to lack suburbs and rest of county largely rural.  And we know rural areas have largely swung rightward while suburbs leftward.

[mileslunn]

Here is Chattanooga vs. rest of Hamilton county.  Pretty strong divide mind you suburbs and rural parts of Hamilton County very white while city itself has large African-American community.  Although in suburbs Trump won most but not by big margins while rural parts more heavily Trump.

Chattanooga:

Biden: 40,379 (62.1%)
Trump: 23,301 (35.8%)
Total: 65,022

Rest of Hamilton County

Trump: 68,477 (64.8%)
Biden: 35,105 (33.2%)
Total: 105,608

[mileslunn]

For Fort Smith, Arkansas vs. rest of Sebastian County.

Fort Smith

Trump: 16,820 (57.3%)
Biden: 11,475 (39.1%)
Total: 29,333

Rest of Sebastian County

Trump: 14,378 (80.7%)
Biden:  3,012 (16.9%)
Total: 17,807

For Joplin, Missouri doesn't look like have precinct results up but maybe someone could find them on this site https://www.jaspercounty.org/election.html

For Cape Girardeau vs. Cape Girardeau County have precinct breakdowns but only in person vote so below is that but knowing absentee is more Democrat I give below that rough estimate in percentages as they don't breakdown absentee ballots. 

Cape Girardeau:

Trump: 5,952 (61.2%)
Biden:  3,457 (35.6%)
Total: 9,718

Rest of Cape Girardeau County

Trump: 13,799 (82.5%)
Biden: 2,567 (15.3%)
Total: 16,728

So adjusting for difference between in person and absentee rough estimate is

Cape Girardeau

Trump 57%
Biden 40%

Rest of Cape Girardeau County

Trump 79%
Biden 19%

[mileslunn]

This is Knoxville vs. Knox County.  Admittedly this is by location of polling place as some precincts overlap so NOVA green might have slightly different #'s.  Another calculation by order showed Knoxville at 57% Biden to 40% Trump as the that was only 1-55 while 56-93 appeared to a mix so maybe someone could confirm

Knoxville

Biden: 62,343 (49%)
Trump: 62,034 (48.8%)
Total: 127,181

Rest of Knox County

Trump: 57,165 (69.7%)
Biden: 23,436 (28.6%)
Total: 81,977

If I do only 1-55 then I get

Knoxville:

Biden: 43,490 (57%)
Trump: 30,931 (40.6%)
Total: 76,268

Rest of Knox County

Trump: 93,609 (64.9%)
Biden: 47,932 (33.3%)
Total: 144,133

Second seems more reasonable but be nice if someone confirm which is correct.

[mileslunn]

Here is Modesto, California

Modesto:

Biden: 46,065 (52.16%)
Trump: 39,039 (44.2%)
Total: 88,332

Rest of Stanislaus County

Trump: 65,106 (51%)
Biden: 59,776 (46.82%)
Total: 127,665

[mileslunn]

Here is Stockton vs. rest of San Joaquin County

Stockton:

Biden: 73,754 (66.95%)
Trump: 32,600 (29.59%)
Total: 110,158

Rest of San Joaquin County

Trump: 88,498 (49.27%)
Biden: 87,383 (48.65%)
Total: 179,623

[mileslunn]

Here is Stockton vs. rest of San Joaquin County

Stockton:

Biden: 73,754 (66.95%)
Trump: 32,600 (29.59%)
Total: 110,158

Rest of San Joaquin County

Trump: 88,498 (49.27%)
Biden: 87,383 (48.65%)
Total: 179,623

Could you do Springfield, OH?

Here it is:

Springfield

Biden: 10,974 (53.53%)
Trump: 8,935 (43.59%)
Total: 20,499

Rest of Clark County

Trump: 28,494 (68.06%)
Biden: 12,425 (29.68%)
Total: 41,866

[mileslunn]

Here is Stockton vs. rest of San Joaquin County

Stockton:

Biden: 73,754 (66.95%)
Trump: 32,600 (29.59%)
Total: 110,158

Rest of San Joaquin County

Trump: 88,498 (49.27%)
Biden: 87,383 (48.65%)
Total: 179,623

Could you do Springfield, OH?

Here it is:

Springfield

Biden: 10,974 (53.53%)
Trump: 8,935 (43.59%)
Total: 20,499

Rest of Clark County

Trump: 28,494 (68.06%)
Biden: 12,425 (29.68%)
Total: 41,866

How about, also from from the Rust Belt

Mansfield
Muncie
Ashtabula
Anderson
Lima

The Ohio ones I can easily pull up, Indiana may be a bit tougher but I will try later.

[mileslunn]

Here is for Fort Collins vs. Larimer County

Fort Collins:

Biden: 68,160 (67.82%)
Trump: 29,059 (28.91%)
Total: 100,500

Rest of Larimer County

Trump: 62,430 (50.4%)
Biden: 57,960 (46.8%)
Total: 123,840

Trump dominated suburbs and rural areas east of Rockies even narrowly winning Loveland.  Biden did win Estes Park and some parts in Rockies area.

[mileslunn]

Here is Stockton vs. rest of San Joaquin County

Stockton:

Biden: 73,754 (66.95%)
Trump: 32,600 (29.59%)
Total: 110,158

Rest of San Joaquin County

Trump: 88,498 (49.27%)
Biden: 87,383 (48.65%)
Total: 179,623

Could you do Springfield, OH?

Here it is:

Springfield

Biden: 10,974 (53.53%)
Trump: 8,935 (43.59%)
Total: 20,499

Rest of Clark County

Trump: 28,494 (68.06%)
Biden: 12,425 (29.68%)
Total: 41,866

How about, also from from the Rust Belt

Mansfield
Muncie
Ashtabula
Anderson
Lima

The Ohio ones I can easily pull up, Indiana may be a bit tougher but I will try later.

Can you throw in Joplin, MO and Daytona Beach, FL?

Joplin, Missouri I checked earlier and couldn't find data.  Can try Daytona Beach later.

[mileslunn]

For Ohio ones see below.

Mansfield

Trump: 10,251 (55.1%)
Biden: 7,927 (42.61%)
Total: 18,603

Rest of Richland County

Trump: 31,221 (74.81%)
Biden: 9,713 (23.27%)
Total: 41,733

Lima

Trump: 5,884 (49.1%)
Biden: 5,780 (48.23%)
Total: 11,984

Rest of Allen County

Trump: 27,232 (74.88%)
Biden: 8,369 (23.01%)
Total: 36,369

Ashtabula

Biden: 3,337 (52.49%)
Trump: 2,783 (43.78%)
Total: 6,357

Rest of Ashtabula County

Trump: 24,107 (62.96%)
Biden: 13,160 (34.37%)
Total: 38,292

[mileslunn]

Here is Stockton vs. rest of San Joaquin County

Stockton:

Biden: 73,754 (66.95%)
Trump: 32,600 (29.59%)
Total: 110,158

Rest of San Joaquin County

Trump: 88,498 (49.27%)
Biden: 87,383 (48.65%)
Total: 179,623

Could you do Springfield, OH?

Here it is:

Springfield

Biden: 10,974 (53.53%)
Trump: 8,935 (43.59%)
Total: 20,499

Rest of Clark County

Trump: 28,494 (68.06%)
Biden: 12,425 (29.68%)
Total: 41,866

How about, also from from the Rust Belt

Mansfield
Muncie
Ashtabula
Anderson
Lima

The Ohio ones I can easily pull up, Indiana may be a bit tougher but I will try later.

Can you throw in Joplin, MO and Daytona Beach, FL?

Joplin, Missouri I checked earlier and couldn't find data.  Can try Daytona Beach later.

Could you throw in Warren, Ohio, and Ocala and Palatka while you're looking at Florida?

Just realized I forgot to ask for results from Port St. Lucie too, I think, I meant to ask for results from there like two weeks ago in the thread.

I will get to those over time. 

[mileslunn]

This is for St. Lucie County

Port St. Lucie

Biden: 54,904 (49.9%
Trump: 54,177 (49.3%)

Rest of St. Lucie County

Trump: 32,654 (52.4%)
Biden: 29,133 (46.7%)

So really not much difference but its pretty sprawled out and Fort Pierce is like its own separate city.

For Volusia County it in PDF not spreadsheet form see http://www.volusiaelections.org/2020%20Updates/GEN%202020%20-%20Official%20Results%20-%20EL30A%20-%20Precinct%20Summary.pdf  If anybody has a faster way to do it that would be great, otherwise have to wait until weekend as will take a little while to calculate.

[mileslunn]

Here is three for Illinois, Winnebago County, Peoria County, and Sangamon County

Peoria:

Biden: 29,092 (61.02%)
Trump: 17,364 (36.42%)
Total: 47,679

Rest of Peoria County

Trump: 20,888 (57.56%)
Biden: 14,486 (39.92%)
Total: 36,288

Springfield:

Biden: 32,260 (55.04%)
Trump: 25,046 (42.73%)

Rest of Sangamon County

Trump: 28,433 (61.63%)
Biden: 16,657 (36.11%)
Total: 46,134

Rockford:

Biden: 33,702 (60.8%)
Trump: 20,453 (36.95)
Total: 55,434

Rest of Winnebago County

Trump: 40,407 (55.56%)
Biden: 30,354 (41.74%)
Total: 72,725

[mileslunn]

Here is three for Illinois, Winnebago County, Peoria County, and Sangamon County

Peoria:

Biden: 29,092 (61.02%)
Trump: 17,364 (36.42%)
Total: 47,679

Rest of Peoria County

Trump: 20,888 (57.56%)
Biden: 14,486 (39.92%)
Total: 36,288

Springfield:

Biden: 32,260 (55.04%)
Trump: 25,046 (42.73%)

Rest of Sangamon County

Trump: 28,433 (61.63%)
Biden: 16,657 (36.11%)
Total: 46,134

Rockford:

Biden: 33,702 (60.8%)
Trump: 20,453 (36.95)
Total: 55,434

Rest of Winnebago County

Trump: 40,407 (55.56%)
Biden: 30,354 (41.74%)
Total: 72,725

How about Charleston and Mattoon each vs. Coles County? Or Macomb vs. McDonough County?

I can get to those later.  My focus is more on mid and large sized cities rather than small as goal to see how suburbs voted and nearby rural areas vs. town and rural, but if I have time later will do those.

[mileslunn]

For Anderson, Indiana my computer blocked site due to firewall.  My firewall has been blocking a few county sites, but if anyone can access it, should be able to get it there.  For Delaware county, I have data but need to know which precinct #'s are Muncie but if someone provides that I can crunch the numbers.

http://www.delawarecountyelectionday.com/

[mileslunn]

For Anderson, Indiana my computer blocked site due to firewall.  My firewall has been blocking a few county sites, but if anyone can access it, should be able to get it there.  For Delaware county, I have data but need to know which precinct #'s are Muncie but if someone provides that I can crunch the numbers.

http://www.delawarecountyelectionday.com/

How about:

Davenport, IA
South Bend, IN
Tyler, TX
West Lafayette, IN
Logan, UT
Elkhart, IN
Port Arthur, TX
Beaumont, TX
Bentonville, AR
Dubuque, IA

Davenport and Dubuque I can do.  West Lafayette only gives by township so doesn't match city exactly but if you have exact precinct range can do it.  Beaumont and Port Arthur I tried but couldn't get it exactly but I have link if anyone else can do them.

[mileslunn]

For Anderson, Indiana my computer blocked site due to firewall.  My firewall has been blocking a few county sites, but if anyone can access it, should be able to get it there.  For Delaware county, I have data but need to know which precinct #'s are Muncie but if someone provides that I can crunch the numbers.

http://www.delawarecountyelectionday.com/

How about:

Davenport, IA
South Bend, IN
Tyler, TX
West Lafayette, IN
Logan, UT
Elkhart, IN
Port Arthur, TX
Beaumont, TX
Bentonville, AR
Dubuque, IA

Davenport and Dubuque I can do.  West Lafayette only gives by township so doesn't match city exactly but if you have exact precinct range can do it.  Beaumont and Port Arthur I tried but couldn't get it exactly but I have link if anyone else can do them.

I would LOVE Davenport and Dubuque at least.

Can get those later tonight, just finished South Bend.  I will check spreadsheet to see if Bentonville, Arkansas doable, but not sure if precincts given by city or just number.

[mileslunn]

Here is South Bend.

South Bend:

Biden: 25,355 (67.4%)
Trump: 11,495 (30.55%)
Total: 37,621

Rest of St. Joseph County

Trump: 41,669 (53.69%)
Biden: 34,541 (44.5%)
Total: 77,617

Biden narrowly won Mishawka and also the townships of Clay and Portage which are right beside cities.  Rural parts especially those that don't border city, Trump got north of 60% and in some cases north of 70% as is typical in much of Rural America.

[mileslunn]

Here is South Bend.

South Bend:

Biden: 25,355 (67.4%)
Trump: 11,495 (30.55%)
Total: 37,621

Rest of St. Joseph County

Trump: 41,669 (53.69%)
Biden: 34,541 (44.5%)
Total: 77,617

Biden narrowly won Mishawka and also the townships of Clay and Portage which are right beside cities.  Rural parts especially those that don't border city, Trump got north of 60% and in some cases north of 70% as is typical in much of Rural America.

Is Elkhart doable?

Tried earlier but couldn't.  Splits on township lines.

[mileslunn]

Dubuque:

Biden: 16,605 (54.86%)
Trump: 12,972 (42.86%)
Total: 30,266

Rest of Dubuque County

Trump: 14,242 (60.19%)
Biden: 9,052 (38.26%)
Total: 23,660

Davenport:

Biden: 27,565 (56.33%)
Trump: 19,937 (40.74%)
Total: 48,933

Rest of Scott County

Trump: 23,004 (52.14%)
Biden: 18,186 (41.22%)
Total: 44,120

Most of county went solidly for Trump, but Biden narrowly won Bettendorf by one point which is suburban

And just while I am it at since I know you will ask for more I added those two as a bonus

Waterloo:

Biden: 17,853 (59.01%)
Trump: 11,810 (39.04%)
Total: 30,254

Rest of Black Hawk County

Trump: 17,830 (49.07%)
Biden 17,794 (48.97%)
Total: 66,593

Biden won Cedar Falls by almost same margin as Davenport, but rural parts and other smaller suburbs all went for Trump.

Cedar Rapids:

Biden: 43,419 (60.53%)
Trump: 26,418 (36.83%)
Total: 71,726

Rest of Linn County

Biden: 27,455 (49.26%)
Trump: 26,946 (48.35%)
Total: 55,732

Biden won Mount Vernon by 37 points as liberal arts college there while also won Fairfax, Hiawatha, and Marion which are all suburbs of Cedar Rapids.  Trump not surprisingly dominated the rural portions of county

[mileslunn]

Here is some from Kansas

Manhattan:

Biden: 11,060 (55.54%)
Trump: 8,221 (41.29%)
Total: 19,911

Rest of Riley County

Trump: 3,389 (64.23%)
Biden: 1,705 (32.41%)
Total: 5,260

Lawrence:

Biden:  34,539 (75.44%)
Trump: 10,226 (22.34%)
Total: 45,784

Rest of Douglas County

Trump: 7,060 (51.49%)
Biden: 6,246 (45.55%)
Total: 13,711

Wichita:

Trump: 80207 (49.47%)
Biden: 77,117 (47.56%)
Total: 162,141

Rest of Sedgwick County

Trump: 42,209 (67.3%)
Biden: 18,753 (29.9%)
Total: 62,721

Topeka:

Biden: 31,340 (57.22%)
Trump: 21,996 (40.16%)
Total: 54,770

Rest of Sedgwick County

Trump: 18,447 (59.72%)
Biden: 11,675 (37.8%)
Total: 30,887

Kansas City:

Biden: 34,302 (66.53%)
Trump: 16,059 (31.15%)
Total: 51,556

Rest of Wyandotte County

Trump: 2,875 (52.13%)
Biden: 2,486 (45.08%)
Total: 5,515

Interesting that Biden won Johnson County, but Wyandotte County suburbs go for Trump, any reason why?  Wichita also went for Trump which is unusual for cities as large as it but perhaps it extends into areas that were suburbs elsewhere, sort of like Jacksonville and Oklahoma City.

[mileslunn]

For Kansas, state has central precinct data, I can DM you the spreadsheet and all of those calculated.  For Iowa, their website for secretary of state makes it super easy.

[mileslunn]

Here are few of the secondary cities in Michigan

Grand Rapids:

Biden: 67,985 (69.59%)
Trump: 27,158 (27.8%)
Total: 97,696

Rest of Kent County

Trump: 138,583 (52.43%)
Biden: 119,930 (45.37%)
Total: 264,335

Flint:

Biden: 28,231 (82.35%)
Trump: 5,542 (16.17%)

Rest of Genesee County

Trump: 93,172 (49.7%)
Biden: 91,159 (48.62%)
Total: 187,484

Lansing:

Biden: 37,899 (73.26%)
Trump: 12,758 (24.66%)
Total: 51.735

Rest of Ingham County

Biden: 56,313 (60.67%)
Trump: 34,881 (37.58%)
Total: 92,815

Kalamazoo:

Biden: 25,139 (76.91%)
Trump: 6,763 (20.69%)
Total: 32,686

Rest of Kalamazoo County

Biden: 58,547 (52.72%)
Trump: 50,060 (45.07%)
Total: 111,060

Saginaw:

Biden: 14,207 (76.31%)
Trump: 4,150 (22.29%)
Total: 18,617

Rest of Saginaw County

Trump: 46,635 (54.95%)
Biden: 36,881 (43.46%)
Total: 84,866

Ann Arbor:

Biden: 59,210 (87.4%)
Trump: 7,662 (11.31%)
Total: 67.749

Rest of Washtenaw County

Biden: 97,926 (65.64%)
Trump: 48,579 (32.56%)
Total: 149,182

[mileslunn]

Miles, I saw someone on Twitter calculated different results for Port St. Lucie that had Biden flipping it after it voted for Trump in 2016. He had Trump winning it in 2016 42,501 to Clinton's 42,048, and then Biden winning it in 2020 with 54,904 to Trump's 54,177. Maybe recheck your numbers?

I can update that.  Admittedly it went by where polling station so I think mine included those outside Port St. Lucie, but polling station in Port St. Lucie will re-calculate.