Oregon 2020 GE PRES Megathread

[mileslunn]

I earlier ran #'s for Clackamas County and looks like Biden won big in the Portland suburbs (Trump got in low 30s and 20s in most of those) but the towns on south and east side as well as rural areas Trump won.  For Lane County, Eugene massively Biden, Springfield despite its closeness, Trump got over 40% but still went Biden.  Trump would have won county if you remove those two cities.  For Jackson County, Medford went for Trump and numbers close to county.  Ashland was what made it close as Biden got close to 80% there.

For curiosity, do you have any numbers of the suburbs in Washington County, what was Bend?  Also Astoria and Salem?  I can help on any if you wish as most it is easy to match precincts.

[mileslunn]

Below is Salem split by county

Marion County:

Salem:

Biden:  38,550
Trump: 25,678
Total:  66,260

Polk County:

Salem:

Biden:  9,154
Trump: 6,977
Total: 16,722

Total:

Biden:  47,704   -     57.5%
Trump:  32,655  -     39.4%
Total: 82,982

So yes Biden won Salem, but seems quite a bit more conservative than either Eugene or Portland.  I would have thought with the civil service there, Democrats would do a bit better, do you know why?

[mileslunn]

Douglas County- Oregon Vote Share by Place 2012 to 2020:



Douglas County is overwhelmingly rural in that only a relatively small population lives within "Cities".

Roseburg is the largest City in Douglas County, representing roughly 20% of the County Vote Share, then you got  some folks living right down the Highway in Winston & Sutherlin...

Other than that not too much out there, other than a small Coastal Town Reedsport, Myrtle Creek, and a few small rural Towns that are centers of local neighborhood and commerce.

Although the rural population is gradually declining, still almost 60% of Voters live in "Rural Areas".

Next stop Roseburg--- to give some props to Rafe, not to mention the largest population center within the County... 

How did Roseburg vote?

[mileslunn]

I was able to do Multonomah, Clackamas, Deschutes and parts of Coos and Lane county so I can go re-calculate and add those.  Also with precinct listings could do Washington county too.

[mileslunn]

Here is Clackamas County

Barlow: Trump 56.1% - Biden 43.9%
Canby: Trump 51.5% - Biden 45.1%
Estacada: Trump 58.9% - Biden 36.3%
Gladstone: Biden 56.3% - Trump 40%
Happy Valley: Biden: 54.9% - Trump 42.4%
Johnson City: Biden 53.7% - Trump 43.9%
Lake Oswego: Biden 71.4% - Trump 26.1%
Milwaukie: Biden 68.7% - Trump 27.9%
Molalla: Trump 65% - Biden 31.7%
Oregon City: Biden 52.6% - Trump 43.9%
Portland (Clackamas portion only): Biden 55.5% - Trump 41.5%
Rivergrove: Biden 68% - Trump 27.7%
Sandy: Trump 55.3% - Biden 40.2%
Tualatin (Clackamas portion only): Biden 63.3% - Trump 33.3%
West Linn: Biden 65.4% - Trump 31.5%
Wilsonville: Biden 59.1% - Trump 37.6%

Seems Trump was strongest in unincorporated areas and towns outside Portland metro area while Portland suburbs went massively Biden save Oregon City which was close to Clackamas county average and Portland portion surprisingly Trump got over 40%.  Rest look a lot like Washington County so guessing Clackamas County more competitive due to larger rural population.

[mileslunn]

I got Deschutes County breakdown earlier but cannot find it, but will try again.  I know Biden won Sisters while in Bend Trump got under 1/3 of popular vote while rest of county went Trump, but county site doesn't give breakdown anymore but see if I can find it.

[mileslunn]

Here is Lane County

Eugene: Biden 73.5% - Trump 23%
Springfield: Biden 55.2% - Trump 40.9%
Cobourg: Biden 54.98% - Trump 42.37%
Cottage Grove: Trump 51.17% - Biden 44.96%
Creswell: Trump 53.49% - Biden 42.62%
Dunes City: Trump 53.47% - Biden 44.06%
Florence: Biden 51.28% - Trump 46.42%
Junction City: Trump 56.82% - Biden 39.03%
Lowell: Trump 56.4% - Biden 40.2% (note this extends beyond city limits so precinct including it)
Oakridge: Trump 52.23% - Biden 44.04%
Veneta: Trump 53.57% - Biden 42.56%
Westfir: Trump 53.58% - Biden 43.61%

Of unincorporated sections, Trump won most but coastal one narrowly went for Biden, while Biden dominated those just outside Eugene (probably a lot commute into city so spillover of liberal culture and suburban like in nature rather than rural).  Florence is a popular tourist place on coast while Cobourg is close enough more like a bedroom community of Eugene.

[mileslunn]

Here is Jackson County

Ashland:  Biden 85.2% - Trump 12.2%
Butte Falls: Trump 72.69% - Biden 25.17%
Central Point: Trump 62.8% - Biden 34.2%
Eagle Point: Trump 63.95% - Biden 32.63%
Gold Hill: Trump 63.95% - Biden 32.63%
Jacksonville: Biden 56% - Trump 41.45%
Medford: Trump 50.3% - Biden 46.3%
Phoenix: Biden 54.64% - Trump 42.15%
Rogue River: Trump 60.18% - Biden 36.38%
Shady Cove: Trump 65.67% - Biden 31.81%
Talent: Biden 71.53% - Trump 24.86%

Interesting how Biden won all the bedroom communities of Medford but lost city itself.  Ashland off course has long been an uber-liberal community.

[mileslunn]

Here is Benton County by municipality

Corvallis: Biden 78.7% - Trump 17.2%
Philomath: Biden 59.85% - Trump 35.08%
Albany (Benton county portion only): Biden 51.73% - Trump 44.53%
Adair Village: Biden 56.51% - Trump 37.99%
Monroe: Trump 56.21% - Biden 41.81%

[mileslunn]

Deschutes County:

Bend: Biden 63.7% - Trump 33.5%
Redmond: Trump 57% - Biden 39.6%
La Pine: Trump 62.99% - Biden 33.65%
Sisters: Biden 55.08% - Trump 42.44%

Bend main reason Biden won Deschutes County which is the first time since 1992 the Democrats have won a county East of the Cascades.  Sisters which is fairly touristy also went for Biden, while Trump dominated rest of county.

[mileslunn]

Coos County

Bandon: Biden 50.48% - Trump 47.4%
Coos Bay: Trump 51.11% - Biden 45.23%
Coquille: Trump 62.99% - Biden 34.01%
Lakeside: Trump 64.93% - Biden 32.50% (note precinct overlaps into unincorporated areas)
Myrtle Point: Trump 69.47% - 27.65%
North Bend: Trump 53.68% - 43.53%
Powers: Trump 73.14% - Biden 24.12% (includes unincorporated areas)

Looks like only Bandon voted for Biden.  Is it a more touristy area?  I believe Obama won Coos Bay and North Bend both times, but flipped to Trump in 2016.  Very blue collar so not really surprising.

[mileslunn]

Here is Hood River County

Hood River: Biden 76% - Trump 21%
Cascade Locks: Trump 48.59% - Biden 45.92%

Interestingly enough Cascade Locks was the only precinct to vote for Trump, all others went for Biden.  Hood River most lopsided for Biden, unincorporated more competitive than Hood River but still favored Biden, while Cascade Locks for Trump narrowly

[mileslunn]

Here is Multonomah County

Portland: Biden 83.8% - Trump 13.4%
Lake Oswego (Multonomah portion only): Biden 76.56% - Trump 20.53%
Milwaukie (Multonomah portion only): Biden 82.84% - Trump 14.4%
Fairview: Biden 59.35% - Trump 37.29%
Gresham: Biden 56.95% - Trump 39.68%
Maywood Park: Biden 80.2% - Trump 16.07%
Troutdale: Biden 50.86% - Trump 45.66%
Wood Village: Biden 56.99% - Trump 39.16%

Biden won all, but appears ones to south along I5 corridor massively for Biden as well as Maywood Park which is surrounded by Portland.  East end suburbs seem most pro-Trump of Portland suburbs even more so than neighboring counties although Biden still won them.

[mileslunn]

What is the reason Hood River County is so blue?  Is it tourism?  They do have a large Hispanic population but many counties in Eastern Oregon and Eastern Washington even higher yet still voted for Trump.

[mileslunn]

Wondering if east of the Cascades Democrats have any other pockets.  Deschutes County was only one Biden won, but any towns or cities in other counties Biden might have won.  Not sure if any major ski resorts or tourist areas.  There are though some areas that are majority Hispanic where agriculture is big so possible Biden won in those areas.  I know in Eastern Washington, specifically Yakima County, many of the unincorporated areas and smaller farm towns that are over 70% Hispanic voted for Biden even though county went for Trump.  It does seem in Pacific Northwest, Trump didn't gain amongst Hispanics unlike in other states.

[mileslunn]

Here is Josephine County

Cave Junction: Trump 58.03% - Biden 38.88%

Grants Pass: Trump 58.93% - Biden 37.98%

[mileslunn]

Klamath County

Bonanza: Trump 85.11% - Biden 13.06%

Chiloquin: Biden 50.42% - Trump 45.42%

Klamath Falls: Trump 57.56% - Biden 38.57%

Malin:  Trump 69.46% - Biden 25.50%

Merrill: Trump 64.66% - Biden 32.76%

Chiloquin is 50% Native American thus why Biden won it.

[mileslunn]

Here is Curry County

Brookings: Trump 58.28% - Biden 38.97%

Gold Beach: Trump 54.65% - Biden 41.79%

Port Orford: Biden 58.31% - Trump 39.09%

Guessing Port Orford more touristy or perhaps well to do retirees while Trump areas more blue collar types?  Biden did better in unincorporated northern coastal than southern coastal areas too.

[mileslunn]

Here is Linn County

Albany: Biden 48.7% - Trump 46.8%

Brownsville: Trump 63.96% - Biden 33.21%

Gates: Trump 61.54% - Biden 38.46%

Halsey: Trump 67.67% - Biden 28.54%

Harrisburg: Trump 67.73% - Biden 30.10%

Idanha: Trump 80.49% - Biden 19.51%

Lebanon: Trump 58.26% - Biden 40.56%

Lyons: Trump 74.48% - Biden 23.56%

Mill City: Trump 66.2% - Biden 30.62%

Millersburg: Trump 63.3% - Biden 32.94%

Scio: Trump 66.98% - Biden 28.84%

Sodaville: Trump 65.75% - Biden 30.59%

Sweet Home: Trump 67.34% - Biden 28.98%

Tangent: Trump 60.89% - Biden 35.05%

Waterloo: Trump 74.64% - Biden 23.19%

[mileslunn]

Here is Polk County

Salem (Polk County portion only): Biden 54.74% - Trump 41.72%

Dallas: Trump 56.93% - Biden 39.51%

Falls City: Trump 61.24% - Biden 33.33% (includes surrounding rural areas so whole precinct)


Independence: Biden: 56.31% - Trump 39.87%

Monmouth: Biden 56.81% - Trump 38.57%

[mileslunn]

Here is Washington County

Banks: Trump 53.74% - Biden 40.98%

Beaverton: Biden 72.3% - Trump 24.41%

Cornelius: Biden 58.94% - Trump 37.73%

Durham: Biden 67.79% - Trump 28.72%

Forest Grove: Biden 55.29% - Trump 40.59%

Gaston: Trump: 57.18% - Biden 38.51%

Hillsboro: Biden 63.56% - Trump 32.41%

King City: Biden 60.24% - Trump 36.82%

North Plains: Biden 52.12% - Trump 44.3%

Sherwood: Biden: 56.62% - Trump 39.66%

Tigard: Biden 66.25% - Trump 30.27%

Tualatin: Biden 62.37% - Trump 33.5%

Most of Trump's support came from the rural unincorporated parts.  King City was interesting as it is a planned seniors community with average age of 76 and 80% over 65 yet still voted pretty strongly for Biden.  One of the reasons I figured Portland was so Democratic is it is the youngest metro area in US and younger Americans tend to lean more in progressive direction while far from unanimous, seniors due to lean right.  Its one of the big reasons despite being more urbanized than most of the country and slightly less white, Florida still often votes GOP.

[mileslunn]

For Hood River County

Cascade Locks: Trump 48.59% - Biden 45.92%

Hood River: Biden 76.02% - Trump 20.99%

Cascade Locks precinct was the only one to vote for Trump in Hood River county.  On other hand Hood River precincts were the most lopsided with others solidly for Biden but not as lopsided.