2020 Labour Leadership Election

[mileslunn]

What are rules to get nomination?  My understanding is you need a minimum number of MPs to nominate one.  In past usually a hard left like Diane Abbott or Jeremy Corbyn was nominated as a token gesture assuming they wouldn't win.  After disaster I don't think any moderate MPs will do this although how many are new MPs who came under Corbyn and thus support Corbynism?

[mileslunn]

Anyway, who wants to be Neil Kinnock here? After a thumping like this, Labour is very unlikely to get back in one go.

I think a Labour majority is extremely unlikely, but Tories will have been in power for 14 years so a hung parliament is possible and if that happens pretty sure unless only a few seats shy, SNP and maybe Liberal Democts back Labour although if they chose someone too far to the left LibDems might back neither.

[mileslunn]

Are there no women between Blair and Corbyn ideologically? I don't really like to bring up US politics in UK topics, but who is your Amy Klobuchar? That seems to be the way to go, with just a hint more leftism.

Actually there is no one in the contest who could be described as “Blairite” the whole centre of gravity in the Labour is so much further to the left now that if Jess Phillips is now seen to be more moderate compared to Corbyn, she is still several quantum leaps to the left of Tony Blair

True and that has its pros and cons.  With younger voters being more left wing than older party risks split if as centrist as it was under Blair.  On other hand, it makes winning a majority much harder.  If you look at constituency breakdowns, Blair won in many areas, particularly in Midlands where Tories are now getting over 50% and in some cases even 60% so that suggests voters there are fairly centrists.  Other benefit of moving to centre is helps Liberal Democrats as I hate to say it, but if Liberal Democrats remain low, Tories will have a floor of close to 40% making them hard to beat, whereas if Liberal Democrats could win in Southwest like they did under Blair or perhaps gain in Home counties (as similar profile areas in Canada are going Liberal and Democrat in US) that could help.

Reality is Labour probably will need SNP to form government as in past their strength has always involved doing well in Scotland and SNP being centre-left has more or less cornered the progressive vote.  They used to be strongest in Northeastern part which is fairly conservative and now an SNP-Conservative battleground while middle belt where most live used to be a Labour stronghold but now SNP.

[mileslunn]

I think Starmer will win. The legions of young people who joined Labour under Corbyn also tend to be passionately pro-EU and i think he would have won their hearts by being such a great Labour shadow Brexit minister

I think it could go either way.  He is not quite as left wing as Rebecca Long Bailey and more articulate.  But his disadvantage is he is from London which is swinging towards Labour and much of the focus is on winning back the Midlands and Northern areas they lost.  At the same time Brexit will be a non-issue by next election so whether those swing back or not will depend on how Johnson governs and Labour's platform.  I think the suburban and urban ones they had a good shot at winning back, but the more rural ones like Basseltaw or Bishop Auckland, I think those might be gone for good or at least only in a landslide will they flip back and I don't see that happening next time.  If they lose next time around, then maybe in 2029 or 2028 Tories will have been in power long enough for a big shift to happen.

[mileslunn]

What are the chances of Ian Murray being deputy leader?  Considering he is the lone MP from Scotland and historically Scotland was a Labour stronghold and will probably be an area they need to gain back to ever form government again, he seems like a decent choice for deputy leader.  Or is he seen as too moderate despite that is what is best for the party.