Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[mileslunn]

Is their best hope Singh's popularity you mention below splitting the left?

Conservative ceiling is lower than a decade ago, thus making it harder to benefit from vote-splitting on their left.

That is true although if you add PPC + Maverick party only slightly lower, but definitely country has shifted leftward in past decade, in fact shift has been very strong and I don't think any other country has seen as big a shift leftward.  By contrast the movement to right in 80s and 90s was much more gradual.  Part of it too is left through 80s and 90s largely accepted the right wing narrative of balanced budgets, lower taxes and never really challenged it.  In last decade they have challenged it while right has surprisingly not defended it and instead focused on culture wars, which may be a vote winner in some countries, but not in Canada.

[mileslunn]

I think another big risk for Tories is anti-vaxxer candidates.  Only need a few and could seriously damage them.  After what we've gone through in pandemic, I don't think public is interested in being lectured on freedom with vaccine passports.  Most of us got our vaccines and want our lives back to as normal as possible with some minor restrictions.  Never mind party should look South and see what a mess entertaining this does.  Even many in GOP are now begging their supporters to get vaccinated as worried its killing off their own supporters.

[mileslunn]

In Metro Vancouver, there's definitely been a Liberal shift that was not a 2015 fluke (Delta being a good example) and its voting patterns increasingly resemble the GTA.  Tories being pushed further out.  The NDP is holding its own in east side and inner suburban seats though where they've been traditionally been strong.

BC agree is moving left, but a lot could be high cost of living forcing many younger families who used to live closer to centre out to suburbs.  Also province historically was not that right wing.  Liberal antipathy to West and disastrous NDP rule of 90s I think pushed province rightward, but as those become distant memories starting to swing back.

Alberta I also think is swinging left too.  If this was 2001, Kenney would be solidly ahead even with all his mess ups so he is partly trailing due to incompetence, but also Alberta is not as right wing as once was.  Now yes Tories got 69% federally there, but that was more an anti-Trudeau vote then vote for Conservatives. 

Ontario is tougher to say as while Tories getting 44% like they did in 2011 seems unlikely, in 2004, I thought Harris' 45% in 1999 was no longer feasible so province maybe shifting left slightly but generally Tories have floor of 30% and ceiling of 45%, but perhaps ceiling now down to 40%.

Saskatchewan is swinging right however and Quebec maybe although I think their style of right of centre politics is quite distinct from rest of country so whether CAQ success is rightward shift or more simply there wasn't a party like them before, hard to say.  I think in Quebec, left vs. right matters less than rest of Canada.

Atlantic Canada hasn't swung left, just Tories have swung right thus why still can win provincially where like old PCs but not federally where too Reform like. 

Manitoba I think has seen more a stronger urban/rural polarization.  Even if NDP wins provincially in 2023, which they may very well, I don't see them winning back many of the lost rural ridings.  It will probably be by sweeping Winnipeg.

[mileslunn]

What are some notable Tories and NDPers running if someone could make a list?

Probably best to look at shadow cabinets for both but neither exactly have impressive list of people running.  Part of it could be few expect either to win.  I think with Tories probably strongest are more younger ambitious types who hope to run for leadership in future when things are more favourable for party.

[mileslunn]

What are some notable Tories and NDPers running if someone could make a list?

He doesn't have a hope of winning in West Vancouver, but Avi Lewis is something of a mini-celebrity.  He's the grandson of former Federal NDP leader David Lewis and the son of former Ontario Provincial NDP leader Stephen Lewis.  He's also married to Naomi Klein and they did at least one documentary film together (The Take, good film.)

Avi Lewis was also a personality on MuchMusic back when they still showed music videos (he wasn't a V.J though.)

That said, he's running in a riding the NDP has never come close to winning federally before, and I'm not actually sure he's all that well known outside of Ontario.

I think he might come in second depending on how big the Green implosion is and what is the state of the Greens during the campaign, and I doubt the Greens will be in a good state considering their financial troubles and the legal problems caused that resulted in the implosion.

I am guessing Tories come in second there.  West Vancouver is wealthiest municipality in Canada so while only 1/3 of riding, it will be a Tory-Liberal battle with NDP likely in single digits, especially with their wealth tax (which is popular in most of Canada, but probably not so much there as would hit many residents).

[mileslunn]

So no big names for the Tories in the GTA except for Melissa Lantsman in Thornhill (a seat that's already safe Conservative).  

Scheer was a terrible fit for Ontario, and yet O'Toole who checks a lot of the right boxes is poised to do no better and likely worse.  

I imagine a lot of potential big names in the GTA are sitting it out because they don't see a realistic chance of winning a seat, and even less a chance of sitting in government.

Agreed.  I think if party was leading in the polls, you would see them attract a lot more.  Ontario PCs had a much stronger roster as they were leading in polls two years up to election so many expected them to be next government.  Few expect Tories federally to win.

[mileslunn]

https://twitter.com/CPC_HQ/status/1426242355422765056
The person who made this should be shot

HAHAHAHAHAHA WHAT THE HELL DID I JUST WATCH

Party has horrible comms team.  People running campaign are right wing hacks he want to own Libs.  O'Toole actually himself on paper is pretty moderate and is making a huge mistake letting these people run things.  It won't work.  Only danger is O'Toole may ensure party remains out of power until 2029 instead of just 2025 as many will argue party lost for not being right wing enough so go even further right and lose 2025.  While things change, I think my idea of party being out of power for at least a decade seems very plausible.  Most in base are too dumb to know what it takes to win and no matter how many times, they lose they keep doubling down.

[mileslunn]

So no big names for the Tories in the GTA except for Melissa Lantsman in Thornhill (a seat that's already safe Conservative).  

Scheer was a terrible fit for Ontario, and yet O'Toole who checks a lot of the right boxes is poised to do no better and likely worse.  

I imagine a lot of potential big names in the GTA are sitting it out because they don't see a realistic chance of winning a seat, and even less a chance of sitting in government.

Agreed.  I think if party was leading in the polls, you would see them attract a lot more.  Ontario PCs had a much stronger roster as they were leading in polls two years up to election so many expected them to be next government.  Few expect Tories federally to win.

The reverse of this can be seen with Ontario Liberals. The federal Liberal caucus from Ontario is absolutely stacked, and it seems like they'll add Naqvi and Couteau, the latter of whom is a sitting MPP. The provincial Liberals, meanwhile, are nominating a whole bunch of nobodies for the next election.

Agreed.  While OLP has a chance, I think its much lower than federal Liberals and Ontario PCs still despite Ford's mistakes have a decent chance at winning although I think Ontario is less certain than federal. 

And with Tories being in government in most provinces, that too could limit their ability to get the best not just for candidates, but also communications team too.  In BC though I would think with BC Liberals in opposition and BC Conservatives being a joke some might be interested even if unlikely to win this time rather to learn the ropes to be ready in 2025 (if they win then).  And in Alberta too for open seats as lets be clear even if UCP does recover, they will win a lot less seats than they did in 2019 and not a whole lot of ones who have been members for a long time who are likely to retire.  Most who retire more likely will do so to avoid defeat.

[mileslunn]

I'm still not over that unreal CPC ad and I won't be for some time. It just screams "unprofessional" and "petty". I stand by my theory that Tories can afford to come off a little petty and nasty, but they can't look like clowns, because the appeal of conservatism to moderates is the "adult in the room" thing.

Anyway, Innovative has a poll out. They typically favour LPC so I wouldn't put too much stock into it, but good grief, look at those CPC numbers in Ontario and BC.

Even most Tories I follow on twitter are slamming the ad and also slamming O'Toole's stance on vaccine passports.  Its one thing for Liberal partisans to criticize Tories, that is expected.  But when your own party supporters aren't happy, then you know you've got trouble.

Even one MP and Brad Wall slammed this ad so when you have them commenting on this, you know its a major mistake.  While early on, reminds me of Kim Campbell Chretien face ad and Liberal's soldiers in our streets from 2006 ad as both got condemned by own party and both were damaging.

[mileslunn]

Does anyone think there's a chance of the Liberals or NDP picking up a seat or two in either Calgary or Edmonton?

Yes, there is, but... I don't entirely trust polls showing Conservatives at <50% in Alberta; still, if they're lucky, I think Liberals could gain one or more of Edmonton Centre, Edmonton Mill Woods, Calgary Centre, Calgary Skyview and maybe Calgary Confederation or Calgary Forest Lawn. The only obvious NDP target is Edmonton Griesbach. But if you want riding by riding predictions in Canada, at the start of a campaign, in cities that may or may not swing away from a previously dominant party, you might as well toss a coin  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Agreed, only way Tories fall below 50% is if Maverick Party or PPC get in double digits, then it is certainly possible.  Rural Alberta will go over 70% right wing likely over 80%, but possible Maverick or PPC get in double digits in several ridings there as many feel O'Toole not right wing enough.

In Calgary and Edmonton different story.  Split on right non-issue but Liberals and NDP do have a few seats they could flip.  I think for Liberals 2-4 seats most likely, NDP 1-2 seats.  Kenney's unpopularity hurting Tories a fair bit.  At same time no way right wing vote in Alberta falls below 50%.  Below 60%, I think its quite likely and certainly would be 69% like last time, but I still think in end combined right wing vote will be in 50s in Alberta.  However, this will probably be first election where Tories get higher percentage in Saskatchewan over Alberta.

[mileslunn]

I don't see Regina-Wascana going Liberal.  It was not a Liberal riding, it was a Ralph Goodale riding.  If Tories do lose it which is possible, it will be to NDP not Liberals.  Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River only Saskatchewan riding Liberals might have a shot in as NDP MLA running and large aboriginal population.

For Alberta, I think Liberals likely win Edmonton Centre.  Edmonton-Mill Woods possible if things go well.  Calgary-Skyview is by far their best chance in Calgary.  Calgary Centre and Calgary-Confederation possible but long shots.  Yes Kenney will hurt Tories, but at same time Notley is a lot more popular than Trudeau is in Alberta so you will get some who plug their noses and vote Tory federally but NDP provincially for that reason.

[mileslunn]

I don't see Regina-Wascana going Liberal.  It was not a Liberal riding, it was a Ralph Goodale riding.  If Tories do lose it which is possible, it will be to NDP not Liberals.  Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River only Saskatchewan riding Liberals might have a shot in as NDP MLA running and large aboriginal population.

For Alberta, I think Liberals likely win Edmonton Centre.  Edmonton-Mill Woods possible if things go well.  Calgary-Skyview is by far their best chance in Calgary.  Calgary Centre and Calgary-Confederation possible but long shots.  Yes Kenney will hurt Tories, but at same time Notley is a lot more popular than Trudeau is in Alberta so you will get some who plug their noses and vote Tory federally but NDP provincially for that reason.

338Canada has rated the riding a lean CPC riding, with the Conservatives sitting at 40%, the Liberals at 34% and the NDP at a distanct third at 17%. It also rated Calgary Centre as the only riding in Calgary that is a tossup. Skyview and Confederation are rated as lean CPC. In Edmonton, Centre and Mill Woods are rated tossup and Strathcona is likely NDP.

I think Regina-Wascana will likely see Liberals in third as Ralph Goodale got lots of personal votes.  Just look at 2011 when he won riding, but no other LPC candidate got over 9% in rest of province so it was more a Ralph Goodale riding than Liberal one.  In fact I think splits will probably help CPC there, but whichever party comes in second has better odds next time.

[mileslunn]

I don't see Regina-Wascana going Liberal.  It was not a Liberal riding, it was a Ralph Goodale riding.  If Tories do lose it which is possible, it will be to NDP not Liberals.  Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River only Saskatchewan riding Liberals might have a shot in as NDP MLA running and large aboriginal population.

For Alberta, I think Liberals likely win Edmonton Centre.  Edmonton-Mill Woods possible if things go well.  Calgary-Skyview is by far their best chance in Calgary.  Calgary Centre and Calgary-Confederation possible but long shots.  Yes Kenney will hurt Tories, but at same time Notley is a lot more popular than Trudeau is in Alberta so you will get some who plug their noses and vote Tory federally but NDP provincially for that reason.

338Canada has rated the riding a lean CPC riding, with the Conservatives sitting at 40%, the Liberals at 34% and the NDP at a distanct third at 17%. It also rated Calgary Centre as the only riding in Calgary that is a tossup. Skyview and Confederation are rated as lean CPC. In Edmonton, Centre and Mill Woods are rated tossup and Strathcona is likely NDP.

I think Regina-Wascana will likely see Liberals in third as Ralph Goodale got lots of personal votes.  Just look at 2011 when he won riding, but no other LPC candidate got over 9% in rest of province so it was more a Ralph Goodale riding than Liberal one.  In fact I think splits will probably help CPC there, but whichever party comes in second has better odds next time.

Well, the only thing is that even if the Liberals get the lowest end of the margin of error from 338Canada, and the NDP the highest, they will still be in third. 338Canada has a nearly 97% accuracy rate in terms of being around the margin of error.

Generally true, but you cannot ignore local candidate factors which no model will pick up.  2011 proves that since Regina-Wascana is maybe slightly more Liberal than other SK ridings, but not so much so you get 40%, but not above 9% anywhere else.  That shows it was a local candidate.  Model also would mess up in Vancouver-Granville where JWR won as independent but not running again.  Most ridings local candidates only make a minor difference, but you do have a handful where they make massive differences.

[mileslunn]

They include riding polls too and I am pretty sure Mainstreet will have one for Regina-Wascana at some point.

[mileslunn]

I was wondering what others here think of future of PPC?  Was 5% a blip over vaccine mandates or can party sustain itself longer?  I am thinking once pandemic ends if it does, PPC will back to its 2% it got in 2019.  At same time I am not sure it will help Tories as much as some think.  While PPC undoubtedly took some votes that would have gone Conservative otherwise, I don't buy every single PPC voter would have gone Conservative.  I think a fair number were single issue voters and also a lot habitual non-voters who are alienated with system and would just stay home otherwise.

[mileslunn]

While provincial politics, BC Liberals just rejected Aaron Gunn as leadership candidate.  Interesting.  No doubt his right wing populist style and more divisive is probably something they didn't want as they need to regain foothold in Lower Mainland and his style of politics is a sure fire way to ensure that doesn't happen.  Do wonder if risk of split although I think much like PPC his supporters are loud on social media but smaller in numbers.

I have long supported parties rejecting candidates that are too extreme.  It seems grassroots parties far from being moderate and more representative tend to attract the most extreme types.  And sort of makes sense as most don't live and breathe politics so those on fringes tend to be angriest and most motivated to sign up.  So while such blockings may seem anti-democratic, I actually think they enhance democracy.  Parties are vehicles for expressing certain values, not open for anyone to hijack.  More importantly a healthy democracy needs at least two if not more parties that are actually capable of winning so by blocking extreme ones, they are doing a service to greater public by ensuring there is a viable alternative if people are unhappy with present government.  So far Horgan government fairly popular, but who knows what it will be like in 2024.  But more importantly popular or not, there should be a viable alternative, not a choice of an extreme party only.  Nothing is stopping Aaron Gunn from starting his own party just like Maxime Bernier did.

[mileslunn]

Energy industry won't be happy with Steven Guilbeault as environment minister while climate activists will applaud this.  I would have thought with Kenney's falling approval and electing two Liberal MPs, Trudeau would give an olive branch to province.  This kind of move my just help UCP recover whereas if he had just waited for 18 months until Notley likely wins next election, he could probably get more cooperation with Alberta than would now.

Some like Anita Anand seem like good choices, others like Melanie Joly bad ones.  Dropping Marc Garneau clearly shows he wants to move left and less interested in your more traditionally centrist Liberals.  Also surprised for health minister he didn't chose Brendan Hanley of Yukon as he was PHO during pandemic so would seem like an obvious choice.  But perhaps maybe didn't feel he had chops for cabinet.

[mileslunn]

Vancouver is now a "Laurentian" outpost?

The home base of the most senior figures in cabinet is also telling. Mr. Wilkinson and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland like to remind people they were raised on the Prairies. But Ms. Freeland represents the downtown Toronto riding of University-Rosedale, and Mr. Wilkinson represents North Vancouver. Both MPs are Laurentian in outlook to the core.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-trudeau-cabinets-environmental-focus-could-be-nep-20-in-the-eyes-of/

You could say Canada is becoming like US with the progressive establishment coastal areas and the more conservative hinterland.  Nowadays big divide is more urban/rural divide than West/East.

[mileslunn]

Some blue Liberals are seething about the new Trudeau Cabinet

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/john-ivison-blue-liberals-seeing-red-over-new-trudeau-cabinet

Trudeau has always very much been on left of party and a lot of the younger members in party very much lean left have long wanted to purge party of more conservative elements.  I think bigger problem today in politics is hollowing out of centre.  It seems centrist, while still many exist, aren't interested in getting involved in politics.  Its more the ideologues.  Yes O'Toole has tried to moderate but much of his caucus doesn't want to.  With Liberals Trudeau wants to move left and most in party do to with a few exceptions.  Democrats in US and Labour in UK facing same issue.  Many older members know from past party needs to stay close to centre while many younger members want to move party left.  Problem with Liberals is party skews quite young in terms of MPs and cabinet and don't have a lot of older more experienced ones and what few they do, Trudeau has largely dropped.

[mileslunn]

https://twitter.com/stphnmaher/status/1454234044808548354

It makes sense to me, things are likely going to get a lot worse for a couple years before they get better.  For all of the talk of 'Trudeau called the election to get a majority', I figured he also wanted a renewed mandate before the downturn in order to hopefully get past the downturn before having to go back to the polls. That was what David Peterson hoped to do in 1990.  It didn't work for him, but he did correctly expect that Ontario would have its worst economy since the Great Depression.

Whether it happens or not, I think NDP will be reluctant to pull the plug if the Tories are leading in the polls.  They will basically try to prop up government as long as possible as they know under Liberals they have a chance at getting some things they want, while no chance if Tories win.  I think by 2024, biggest problem Trudeau will have is he will have been in office for 9 years and probably strong desire for change by then.  Now if party gets a new leader, I like their odds.  And off course with Tories a lot depends if O'Toole can moderate as he has tried to or more right wing elements keep the party in infighting as I don't think Tories can win until they marginalize the more right wing elements in party.

[mileslunn]

Tory MP Marilyn Gladu is forming a "civil liberties caucus" to discuss defending antivax constituents who lost their jobs and claims it might have 30+ members soon. She denies it is an O'Toole challenge. One MP wonders if unvaxxed colleagues might be expelled if they make a scene when Parliament reconvenes. The caucus is divided in thirds between pro, anti and neutral-EOT members.

In Montreal, Valérie Plante looks set to comfortably win her rematch with Denis Coderre in Sunday's municipal election.

Seriously it seems like some Conservatives enjoy losing.  You have to be totally tone deaf politically to think this is a winning issue.  Most are tired of pandering to anti-vaxxers.  This looks bad on O'Toole as his moderation won't do any good if he cannot control the fringe elements of the party.  And to win they need to be booted out.  Yes with reform act, tough to do alone, but he can get started on it and also promise not to sign their nomination papers.

[mileslunn]

Conservative Shadow Cabinet

https://www.conservative.ca/erin-otoole-announces-conservative-shadow-cabinet/

More unwillingness to tackle the far-right element of the party, i.e. giving a position to Marilyn Gladu. Leslyn Lewis was also left out.

I'm late to go right now, but I have to correct my error first.  That's the press release of the last Conservative Shadow cabinet, sorry.  Marilyn Gladu has been dropped, but Pierre Polievre is back in Finance.

This is the correct press release
https://www.conservative.ca/erin-otoole-announces-new-shadow-cabinet/

Sorry for my mistake.

Poilievre may knew the finance file well, but seems too much of a Thatcherite and not sure that sells particularly well at this point.  Yet fact Gladu and Lewis kept out says a lot and is probably a sign O'Toole is not happy with their stance on vaccines.

[mileslunn]

Tl;dr I would once again like to remind everyone that Erin O'Toole has another party on his right flank.

So how safe would you say O'Toole's position is overall after the election?

Its a toss up.  Basically party is split in thirds

Right wing base - They want O'Toole dumped as feel he wasn't conservative enough and feel party needs to move right to excite voters on right so more show up.  Otherwise no interest in appealing to swing voters, its all about turning about base.

O'Toole Loyalists - They support O'Toole and feel he deserves a second shot

On the fence - These are mostly moderates who worry if O'Toole dumped, next leader will be too far right to win, but at same time feel O'Toole has been too soft on the more right wing elements in caucus and that is holding party back.

[mileslunn]

Thank you for your lack of interest in my breakdown of the Conservative shadow cabinet. I hate you all.    

I think shadow cabinets get little attention as have little power.  Also if Tories do win next election (which isn't looking likely at moment but lots can happen), its likely actual cabinet would be different.  Smaller as well as it will mean more MPs so probably fewer from Alberta and Saskatchewan while more form provinces they didn't do so well in. 

Pierre Poilievre is most interesting one, but my guess is O'Toole worries he might challenges his leadership so probably more keep your friends close and keep your enemies even closer.

[mileslunn]

There were an additional 28 deputy shadow ministers for a grand total of 83 in the official opposition shadow cabinet or caucus officers.

These are the 36 Conservative M.Ps left out:
British Columbia
1.Rob Morrison
2.Mark Strahl
3.Mark Dalton

Alberta
4.Chris Warkentin
5.Shannon Stubbs
6.Rachael Harder
7.Glen Motz
8.Arnold Viersen
9.Earl Dreeshen
10.Gerald Soroka
11.Michael Cooper
12.Greg McLean
13.Len Webber
14.Bob Benzen
15.Pat Kelly
16.Tom Kmiec
17.Ron Liepert

Saskatchewan
18.Rosemarie Falk
19.Kelly Block
20.Jeremy Patzer
21.Robert Kitchener
22.Cathay Wagantall
23.Michael Kram

Manitoba
24.Dan Mazier
25.Ted Falk
26.Marty Morantz

Ontario
27.Cheryl Gallant
28.Alex Ruff
29.Kyle Seeback
30.Dean Allison
31.Leslyn Lewis
32.Dave MacKenzie
33.Marilyn Gladu
34.Colin Carrie

Quebec
35.Joel Godin

New Brunswick
36.John Williamson

Looks like a lot of the more anti-vax and right wing types were left out so perhaps an implicit signal O'Toole is not happy with them, but doesn't want a direct fight as might hurt his leadership