Romney's chances in Nevada and Colorado

[mileslunn]

I think both are tossups with Obama having a slight edge in Nevada and Colorado being a 50/50 at this point.  It is true Nevada has a large Latino population who will go heavily for Obama, but the state has also been hardhit be foreclosures and has an unemployment rate above the national average, none which are good for the incumbent.  In Colorado it ultimately comes down to the Denver suburbs which tend to be moderate and could go either way.  Jefferson County has a slight Republican tilt so if Romney cannot win there, he can forget winning the state.  Araphoe County is probably the best bellwether for both the state and country, while Adams County has a slight Democrat tilt so Romney can win the state without winning the county much like Bush did in 2004, but he cannot lose it by much.  The rest of the state is pretty much set one way or another.  The Republican strongholds are western slopes (large mormon community), central Colorado (large evangelical community), Eastern Colorado (sparsely population and largely ranchland much like neighboring Kansas and Nebraska), while the Democrat strongholds are Denver and Boulder (liberal cities), southern Colorado (large Latino community), continental divide counties (many ski resorts so tend to be much more liberal than surrounding areas much like Blaine County, Idaho, Teton County, Wyoming, and Summit County, Utah).  Although Colorado has a large latino community and liberal cities like Denver, as a whole the state has a strong libertarian bent and Obama's policies that advocate greater government intervention are not exactly the most popular here.

[mileslunn]

I think both are tossups with Obama having a slight edge in Nevada and Colorado being a 50/50 at this point.  It is true Nevada has a large Latino population who will go heavily for Obama, but the state has also been hardhit be foreclosures and has an unemployment rate above the national average, none which are good for the incumbent.  In Colorado it ultimately comes down to the Denver suburbs which tend to be moderate and could go either way.  Jefferson County has a slight Republican tilt so if Romney cannot win there, he can forget winning the state.  Araphoe County is probably the best bellwether for both the state and country, while Adams County has a slight Democrat tilt so Romney can win the state without winning the county much like Bush did in 2004, but he cannot lose it by much.  The rest of the state is pretty much set one way or another.  The Republican strongholds are western slopes (large mormon community), central Colorado (large evangelical community), Eastern Colorado (sparsely population and largely ranchland much like neighboring Kansas and Nebraska), while the Democrat strongholds are Denver and Boulder (liberal cities), southern Colorado (large Latino community), continental divide counties (many ski resorts so tend to be much more liberal than surrounding areas much like Blaine County, Idaho, Teton County, Wyoming, and Summit County, Utah).  Although Colorado has a large latino community and liberal cities like Denver, as a whole the state has a strong libertarian bent and Obama's policies that advocate greater government intervention are not exactly the most popular here.

Don't forget Colorado Springs as an advantage for Romney. Large Air Force base there.

That would be included in central Colorado, but you are right Colorado Springs is a GOP stronghold.

[mileslunn]

If Romney has a shot at Nevada, he's already won the election and doesn't need to try.

Not totally sure about that.  Nevada has usually been a swing state.  After all since joining the union, it has only twice voted for the losing candidate.  I believe 1976 when Ford won Nevada but lost to Carter was the last time it went for the losing candidate.