1) I don't think Paul is winning anything (apart from the CPAC fluke) other than Internet polls.
2 flukes 2 years in a row?
Trust me, he is running a serious campaign to win this straw poll. They are making calls all over to identify supporters and have invested into buses to get them from every county in the state to show up. Just the other day the GOP Chairman of Story county (the location of Ames) endorsed Paul which will help as well. Plus it is not like he is polling at 1% or 2%, he is up there with the rest them in a lot of polls. I wouldn't be so quick to assume he won't win.