Can a Congressman ever have a serious chance at becoming President?

[The Duke]

It would not be easy, obviously, but it could happen.  A few things would have to come together though.

First, the person would have to be so exceptionally talented that they could not be ignored.  Second, they would have to be from an area that is very wealthy.  Third, they would have to be running in a field where there is no clear front-runner.

It would also help if they had a compelling reason not to have won a statewide office.

As I said, the person must be so talented they can't be ignored.  They would have be smnart, charismatic, and they would have to have a compelling message.   These things are helpful to any candidate, obviously, but we've seen nominees who were none of these things.  A House member must have all of these qualities in spades.

Second, they have to be from somewhere rich enough to finance an insurgent campaign.  A candidate from Manhattan would have a better chance than one from Buffalo.  If you come from a big city, you may have enough millionaires to put together a fundraising operation, but I don't think that's true of rural areas.  This means Democrats are more likely to get such a person than Republicans because they hold most of the seats in big cities.  There are plenty of districts in Boston, New York, San Francisco, and Los Angeles where you have more donors in your dstrict than in many small states (Though candidates from these places would probably prove unviable in the general election).  There are fewer GOP districts where there are enough rich people.  Where could a Republican district yield enough money besides Orange County?  DeLay's old district?  Tom Davis's district?  The list is not very long.

Third, you can't make it work if you're up against a strong field.  No way a Congressman breaks through the 2008 fields, they're too crowded on both sides.  But in '76, '88, and '92 on the Democratic side and in '96 on the GOP side, you had an opening for a credible dark horse candidate.  The big weakness a Congressman has is name recognition, but if the field has very few recognizable faces and everyone is a muddle of seven dwarves (Democrats in 2004) you could see a dark horse candidate emerge.

And it also helps if you have a compelling reason for not having won statewide office.  A Republican in a liberal state or a Democrat in a conservative state could say the reason they have not risen above their station is the electorate in their state is too extreme.

Christopher Cox is the most obvious example of a person who fits all these criteria.  He had the talent.  He was bright and well spoken and an expert on lots of issues.  He was a sharp guy and would have caught people's attention.  He was in a rich district, basically Newport Beach, full of rich country club Republicans who could bankroll him.  He also had a compelling reason for not having won statewide office: He was too conservative for his state, but not too conservative for America.  In a weak field, he'd have been formidable.