Can a Congressman ever have a serious chance at becoming President?

[SPC]

Is there any way that a Congressman who's never been a governor or a senator could have a serious chance at his party's nomination?

[DownWithTheLeft]

Yes, Gerald Ford

[AndrewTX]

I honestly think we can, but this Congressman really needs to be someone else.  There a many shining stars in both partys who can become President.  I honestly believe that Harold Ford would have been one of them.

[MasterJedi]

It can happen but it's very unlikely.

[memphis]

I honestly think we can, but this Congressman really needs to be someone else.  There a many shining stars in both partys who can become President.  I honestly believe that Harold Ford would have been one of them.

Just curious. What about Harold Ford makes you think he's presidential material? He was my Congressman for 10 years, and I just don't see it.

[Governor PiT]

I don't see why an inexperienced Senator like Obama and Thompson is considered more qualified than an experienced Congressman like Duncan Hunter?

[SPC]

Yes, Gerald Ford

I was talking more along the lines of an incumbent congressman.

[Adlai Stevenson]

In other circumstances one could imagine the Democrats nominating a Hispanic Congressman for Vice President in order to increase the appeal of the ticket - although of the current crop most are too old or too localised to be considered. 

[DownWithTheLeft]

Yes, Gerald Ford

I was talking more along the lines of an incumbent congressman.

I was suggesting with that its possible but requires a strange set of circumstances.  I could legimatley see a congressman like Mike Pence making the jump into 2012 if Republicans lose.  The only reason he doesn't run for higher office is because Bayh would probably beat him and the other senator and governor are Republicans.  So, I put Mike Pence at the top of the list

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I would say yes. After all in 1880, Congressman James Garfield of Ohio was nominated as a compromise candidate for the Republicans. Don't forget, a considered Republican frontrunner in 2012 is Congressman Mike Pence of Indiana.

[Keystone Phil]

Only if that member was the Speaker or House Majority/Minority leader.

[12th Doctor]

Possible but unlikely.  First off, most don't have the name recongnition or the fundraising base to pull it off.  Secondly, you wanna talk about paper trails?  House members make far more votes than Senators, and on things that they know far less about.  It you knew how Congressmen voted....

[Reaganfan]

Only if that member was the Speaker or House Majority/Minority leader.

Right...I was hoping for Pence for Minority Leader. Infact, I think it would be very cool if Pence could run for Governor in 2012...then run for President in the future.

[pragmatic liberal]

I'll echo the comments of others here. It's unlikely, but possible. They're likely to be bottom-tier, though, unless they are in the leadership (either Majority Leader, Minority Leader, of Speaker). Someone who isn't in the leadership, even if they're longtime incumbents and are a powerful chairperson of a committee, isn't really that likely to be a frontrunner. Even powerful representatives remain relatively anonymous and they usually have not run statewide.

Their chances of being a VP nominee are somewhat higher, but still low.

Still, there have been a few serious runs by members of the House in the past 30 years. Morris Udall made a credible run in 1976 (would have been a better nominee and president than Carter). Dick Gephardt was a credible potential nominee in both '88 and '04, although in neither case did his run actually get very far.

[MasterJedi]

Yes, George H. W. Bush and Lyndon Johnson. Also, as was minchened before, Gerald Ford.

Just by saying that you show you have no idea what anyone in here is talking about.

[The Duke]

It would not be easy, obviously, but it could happen.  A few things would have to come together though.

First, the person would have to be so exceptionally talented that they could not be ignored.  Second, they would have to be from an area that is very wealthy.  Third, they would have to be running in a field where there is no clear front-runner.

It would also help if they had a compelling reason not to have won a statewide office.

As I said, the person must be so talented they can't be ignored.  They would have be smnart, charismatic, and they would have to have a compelling message.   These things are helpful to any candidate, obviously, but we've seen nominees who were none of these things.  A House member must have all of these qualities in spades.

Second, they have to be from somewhere rich enough to finance an insurgent campaign.  A candidate from Manhattan would have a better chance than one from Buffalo.  If you come from a big city, you may have enough millionaires to put together a fundraising operation, but I don't think that's true of rural areas.  This means Democrats are more likely to get such a person than Republicans because they hold most of the seats in big cities.  There are plenty of districts in Boston, New York, San Francisco, and Los Angeles where you have more donors in your dstrict than in many small states (Though candidates from these places would probably prove unviable in the general election).  There are fewer GOP districts where there are enough rich people.  Where could a Republican district yield enough money besides Orange County?  DeLay's old district?  Tom Davis's district?  The list is not very long.

Third, you can't make it work if you're up against a strong field.  No way a Congressman breaks through the 2008 fields, they're too crowded on both sides.  But in '76, '88, and '92 on the Democratic side and in '96 on the GOP side, you had an opening for a credible dark horse candidate.  The big weakness a Congressman has is name recognition, but if the field has very few recognizable faces and everyone is a muddle of seven dwarves (Democrats in 2004) you could see a dark horse candidate emerge.

And it also helps if you have a compelling reason for not having won statewide office.  A Republican in a liberal state or a Democrat in a conservative state could say the reason they have not risen above their station is the electorate in their state is too extreme.

Christopher Cox is the most obvious example of a person who fits all these criteria.  He had the talent.  He was bright and well spoken and an expert on lots of issues.  He was a sharp guy and would have caught people's attention.  He was in a rich district, basically Newport Beach, full of rich country club Republicans who could bankroll him.  He also had a compelling reason for not having won statewide office: He was too conservative for his state, but not too conservative for America.  In a weak field, he'd have been formidable.

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

Yes, George H. W. Bush and Lyndon Johnson. Also, as was minchened before, Gerald Ford.

Just by saying that you show you have no idea what anyone in here is talking about.

[Lincoln Republican]

Prior to being elected President, the only political office one of the greatest Presidents in the history of the United States, Abraham Lincoln, held, was that of member of the House of Representatives, and that for only one term, 1847-1849, until he was chosen as the Republican Presidential nominee in 1860, going on to win that Presidential election.

Yes, a member of the House of Representatives can be elected President.

It could still happen nowadays, however, the right person would have to be chosen, and the right circumstances would have to exist.

[SPC]

One of the greatest Presidents in the history of the United States, Abraham Lincoln

So you feel that declaring martial law, suspending habeus corpus, ignoring the 10th Amendment, violating the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 8th Amendments, suspending elections, deporting members of Congress, violating the Geneva Conventions and the rules of war, illegaly admitting West Virginia into the Union, and starting an undeclared war thatr killing 600,000 Americans makes a good president?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

It's possible, but I doubt it for the immediate future.  Most of the congressman are seen as more partisan, and are generally at the far extremes of the party (Kucinich, Tancredo, etc.)

[Boris]

What about everyone's favorite three-term Texan Congressman, Matthew Santos?

[J. J.]

No, not without holding some other high profile post, like governor, a department or agency head, VP, or Senate Seat.  People look for foreign policy or administrative experience.  No president since at least 1880 was been elected without either a major public sector administrative post or foreign policy experience.

Aside from Perot in 1992 (who was a company head), no candidate without public sector administrative experience, or foreign policy experience, has received more than 15% of the vote since Wilke in 1940.

[Governor PiT]

I don't understand why inexperienced Senators like Thompson and Obama are taken more seriously than experienced Congressman like Duncan Hunter.