If Trump had won with margins similar to 2016, what would have been the lesson for Democrats?

[xavier110]

Hm. I guess this hinges on what you mean by “lesson for Democrats.”

My sense is that it would reinforce the existing world views of the left and the establishment:
— the left (Bernie and Warren-crats, Justice Dems, etc) would have said Bernie would have won, lol. Which, IMO, isn’t the right lesson, but they would have over-indexed on populism and pointed to a Biden loss as a continued indictment of the ruling class.
— the establishment would have said BLM/riots/leftists dragged down Biden, and that he did as well as he did while Ds down ballot were destroyed was a sign that centrism rules supreme electorally.

Honestly, I don’t think either “lesson” holds true for national elections. Ultimately these presidential elections turn more on emotion, charisma and relatability. Most Ds in waiting are voids of charisma or extremely unrelatable to the average Joe. IMO, they got lucky with Trump governing as a right winger and that Biden won over Warren, Harris, etc.