Arizona megathread

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https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1575252480824291328

Sigh. Lol

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NYT profiled the race. The usual stuff, it’s competitive, Lake is insane and Hobbs is uninspiring, abortion being back in the conversation helps her, yadda, yadda, yadda. I was hoping to find an interesting nugget, but nope

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https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1575252480824291328

Sigh. Lol

Given that poll is an R+10 sample it's not that bad for the Ds lol

R+10 in terms of registration? Don't Rs still have a pretty big registration advantage in AZ anyways?

Not really. Statewide it’s 35% R, 34% I, 31% D

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What is the main reason Hobbs refuses to debate? Literally comes off as a completely coward.

The calculus is clearly that Lake will walk all over Hobbs or embarrass her in the debate. Hobbs is very timid and by the book and will wilt if Lake raises stuff like the racial discrimination lawsuit.

At the same time, Hobbs also says Lake spews lies that make debating impossible. I guess that is, pardon the pun, debatable, but there’s more to her decision than just that (it’s also the above).

I agree with you, though, that it is cowardly, and that if Hobbs were well prepared and confident she could expose Lake as a fraud. Alas, that will not happen before Nov and we will be stuck with this highly irritating race that she potentially loses (probably loses? I am more down on this race than most, as I get a lot of bad vibes, Hillary vs Trump ish flashbacks).

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Can somebody please explain to me the issues with Katie Hobbs' campaign? Not trying to be snarky or claim they don't exist - it's just been repeated here and in media and I don't know what is driving it. I know she has the racial discrimination lawsuit baggage and the debate dodge has left a bad taste in people's mouths here, but I don't really see either of those as reflective of her campaign being disorganized/incompetent/undisciplined.

By July, over two-thirds of her total campaign staff had quit due to a toxic work environment, so there's that

That is interesting, I hadn’t heard this. Can you link to the story (preferably from a local outlet if possible)?

Here: https://arizonaagenda.substack.com/p/i-cant-believe-i-even-survived-that

Arizona Agenda is the best local pub for political coverage. Also broke Marco Lopez $$$ scandal and the “audit” report that said Biden won (again, with more votes this time).

[xavier110]

The latest pull from the oppo file is that where Katie Hobbs went to high school held a slave day and that Hobbs may have helped organize it.

This one sounds like a school sanctioned event that went on for decades, beyond just Hobbs, where freshmen were “slaves” matched to their senior “masters.” Still, sigh.

Where is the Kari dirty laundry? I’m sure her finances are interesting…

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Early ballots go out in the mail today in Maricopa County.  Every time I open my mailbox and see that big yellow envelope, I feel a little bit like it's Christmas morning.  Oh yeah, I'm also a huge dork haha.

I'm feeling very good about Kelly. Hobbs...  I'm hoping for the best.

How do you feel about the props? I think we are on target for Kelly victory…and then potentially a string of unconscionable wins, including the outcomes of the ten props

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So many of the props just seem like the GOP chewing away at voting rights.  Given how big citizen referenda are here, I hope people can see through them.  It would be funny ('cause it's sad) if 132 (which will require 60% approval for future initiatives) passes with less than 60% of the vote.  I think the same thing happened in Florida when they passed their 60% law.

Since I always vote by mail, 309 doesn't seem like that big of a deal, but requiring photo ID for in-person voting will likely make E-day voting even more of a mess.

I honestly have to confess I'm undecided on 308 though.

All of that said, I'm shocked how little airtime any of these have gotten.  Some of the props in the past (marijuana, marriage, etc) absolutely sucked the air out of the room as I remember.

Prop 309 affects VBM! It will make us write our DL or SS # on our ballot sleeves, which will only add processing time to counting mail ballots. It’s very convenient that the same people who say counting takes too long are adding hurdles that will elongate the process. Easy no from me.

I think all the initiative-related ones pass unfortunately, and so does 309. The one bright spot will be dark money passing. Who knows about the property tax or Lt Gov, but I’m voting no for both.

308 seems like a no brainer yes to me. Keep students in state, get them reinvesting in AZ.

310 is the difficult one, the only one I’m undecided about. Why am I paying a sales tax to fund rural fire districts?? At the same time, we live in a failed state when we can’t operate basic public safety and emergency services. That one probably fails anyway, since no one wants a new tax in this environment.

[xavier110]

So many of the props just seem like the GOP chewing away at voting rights.  Given how big citizen referenda are here, I hope people can see through them.  It would be funny ('cause it's sad) if 132 (which will require 60% approval for future initiatives) passes with less than 60% of the vote.  I think the same thing happened in Florida when they passed their 60% law.

Since I always vote by mail, 309 doesn't seem like that big of a deal, but requiring photo ID for in-person voting will likely make E-day voting even more of a mess.

I honestly have to confess I'm undecided on 308 though.

All of that said, I'm shocked how little airtime any of these have gotten.  Some of the props in the past (marijuana, marriage, etc) absolutely sucked the air out of the room as I remember.

Prop 309 affects VBM! It will make us write our DL or SS # on our ballot sleeves, which will only add processing time to counting mail ballots. It’s very convenient that the same people who say counting takes too long are adding hurdles that will elongate the process. Easy no from me.

I think all the initiative-related ones pass unfortunately, and so does 309. The one bright spot will be dark money passing. Who knows about the property tax or Lt Gov, but I’m voting no for both.

308 seems like a no brainer yes to me. Keep students in state, get them reinvesting in AZ.

310 is the difficult one, the only one I’m undecided about. Why am I paying a sales tax to fund rural fire districts?? At the same time, we live in a failed state when we can’t operate basic public safety and emergency services. That one probably fails anyway, since no one wants a new tax in this environment.

You think the 60% threshold for taxes will pass in AZ?  A similar 60% threshold initiative got absolutely destroyed in SD this spring, and that was with the primary electorate.

I do. It reminds me of Prop 126 from 2018, which passed with almost 65 percent of the vote.

[xavier110]

Here's a NBC News article about the Arizona gubernatorial election. Many of Hobbs' supporters are concerned that Lake is "outshining" Hobbs, and believe that Hobbs' refusal to debate Lake was an unforced error on her part. They are concerned that Hobbs has not been campaigning vigorously enough, whereas Lake has been traveling all over the state and has a packed campaign schedule. Moreover, there is a danger that Lake and her surrogates could outspend Hobbs, with regards to advertisements, in the closing weeks of the campaign.

Hobbs, of course, is hoping that the abortion issue (and Lake's hardline stances on it), will benefit her, and she is counting on the "McCain Republicans", who will be crucial to any victory of hers. She has also argued that Lake is making no effort to appeal to swing voters. But on balance, there are concerns from within Hobbs' own campaign about the trajectory of this race, and these are concerns that should not be ignored.

Oh wow, this article is same old, same old, but some nuggets are wild.

I was not expecting one of the few statewide elected Ds (Sandra Kennedy), who’s on the same ballot as freaking Hobbs, to be on the record shading her like this. I can see why they led with her quotes.

Bowers will vote Fontes but not Hobbs? This is a guy who understands the threat and still won’t vote to stop Lake…….?

I’m so, so curious how these downballot races shake out vs. Senate vs. Gov.

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I’m so, so curious how these downballot races shake out vs. Senate vs. Gov.

Peak banter result would be Lake as Gov, but with Fontes as the SOS…feels like we’re headed here.

I think I prefer that outcome to Hobbs/Finchem, though Hobbs would put a check on the cuckoo legislature.

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Well, my family has filled out our ballots. Time to mule it up and stop the MAGA lunatics.

[xavier110]

Well, my family has filled out our ballots. Time to mule it up and stop the MAGA lunatics.

You have any inkling how they voted? I just dropped off my ballot yesterday.

My household is straight D. My other family member in AZ, my dad, likely votes straight GOP based off my limited texts with him. He’s politically, in my opinion, insane so I am not surprised about that. We agree on not establishing the Lt Gov office at least

[xavier110]

The problem for Lake is that we're 2 weeks out and she still has this albatross around her neck - and much is her own fault. She keeps going on interviews and essentially is constantly keeping the 2020 (and 2022) election denial in the headlines. Not sure why she's so hell-bent on making sure it's still what voters are going to hear about her.

https://twitter.com/sbarchenger/status/1584357184200056832

I have a feeling election denying isn't the third rail people on here people think it is.

Your feeling is wrong, This is THE reason this is even close… it is a complete turnoff to a critical bloc of voters. If she loses, this is why (and in that case Finchem probably loses too).

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Peak AZ. Would love to see this person’s ballot, since this is the type of voter deciding this year here.

https://twitter.com/AZHeidiP/status/1586921776591753216?cxt=HHwWgMCqwdW88IUsAAAA

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Peak AZ. Would love to see this person’s ballot, since this is the type of voter deciding this year here.

https://twitter.com/AZHeidiP/status/1586921776591753216?cxt=HHwWgMCqwdW88IUsAAAA

Kelly and Hobbs are pretty mainstream, especially compared to Lake/Masters, so this comparison seems a bit flimsy to me.

Sure. I mean, I agree with you. But here, there is a core chunk of fairly conservative voters like her who would consider Hobbs extreme on policy (e.g., abortion—this person appears to consider it state-sanctioned murder…) but are still entertaining voting for her. That’s huge. I just see recurring blips of disgruntled Rs like her really struggling this election and I’m trying to read between the lines and empathize with them.

My sense is they need to do a lot of mental gymnastics to justify a D vote. And I don’t blame them — it would be really difficult and out of character for me to suddenly start voting for Trumpers one election cycle.

Otherwise, there’s not much persuasion to be had. Ds just have to rally loyal D Latino voters and youth (Hi Obama), Rs gotta get MAGAs out on EDay, etc.

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https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1587269186161561600


This is amusing. There was another video I saw with her, Hamadeh, and Masters pleading for people to vote early. Curious!

[xavier110]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1587269186161561600


This is amusing. There was another video I saw with her, Hamadeh, and Masters pleading for people to vote early. Curious!

I really dislike how she always uses that camera filter to sort of "soften" her. Lake is extremely good with optics and it's small details like that that could subconsciously influence voters opinions of her.

I don’t like commenting on the appearances of women in politics, but Kari always looks like she is a CGI person. I don’t get it, personally. From an optics perspective, what is more interesting to me is how she is Latina passing. I think she’s used that to her advantage and will do unusually well in non-white precincts, especially versus Masters.

Only now just tuning into this election but this last ad is honestly pretty good. People are being hurt financially by high prices and soaring rent and who doesn't love a tax cut?

Obviously my questions are, "How much would this actually help reduce prices?", "It's not government taxes that are driving up rent", and "That money is gonna have to come from the budget somewhere, so what does that mean for schools, roads, government services, etc" but this isn't how the average voter thinks.

Furthermore I think it's a pretty smart strategy to release these smiling, positive, calm and issue-oriented ads in the last week(s) of the campaign, when the other side has been trying to paint you as Satan incarnate for the past year. It really can deflate the attack. I never heard her speak before but now I clearly can see how her time in the media taught her how to talk to people.

This is again one major complaint I have about the Democratic party: why aren't you addressing material concerns like this? Obviously I am horrified by the Dobbs decision but you need to run broad campaigns that appeal to people for whom abortion may not really be an issue. You can talk about abortion while also talking about similar things like cutting sales taxes on groceries, or (for national Dems) an excess profit tax.

I would not be surprised if Lake stomps Hobbs on election night. I have become very disillusioned with American political discourse but this is exactly the kind of campaigns I wish we had more of: less polemics and culture war stuff, more discussion of material, kitchen table issues. If Lake wins, she will have earned it IMO.

I have no opinion on the upfront messaging — what’s notable is her relentless pushing of early voting. There has been a massive and sudden messaging push around voting early to the GOP base. The bean counters don’t like what they’ve seen thus far.

[xavier110]

Anyone have insights into the Attorney General and Secretary of State races  that Democrats seem to be doing better than the governors races in?

I do think irrespective whether Lake or Hobbs wins or who wins Secretary of State, that if push came to shove and Arizona voted for Biden in 2024 that even Lake and the Republicans would end up certifying the results for Biden.

That would be different from January 6th. It would be a successful over turn of popular will of Arizona. Look how close these races are in a Biden midterm in Arizona. The backlash to the GOP in the next midterm would be very harsh against the GOP if they actually overturned the popular will of voters in Arizona, a marginal state.

I can say the same for Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Virginia (borderline contestable).

AG: People seem to have a range of opinions on Mayes, the D AG nominee. She is a former GOP statewide official. During the debate, she was extremely dismissive of Hamadeh, the GOP nominee who has only a few years of post-degree experience. My impression is that she’s kind of abrasive, but this race has flown so under the radar vs.Gov, Sen and even SoS that I don’t think most voters will have any real thoughts on either candidate. My tip is to watch Hamadeh’s performance in the more far flung rural counties. His name may cost him a few votes here and there, unfortunately. I only see Mayes winning in a complete sweep for Ds.

SOS: There has actually been a spending spree in this race. Several anti-Finchem ads. He seems to be now getting negatively defined, though this race still could always default to generic R vs D ways. Fontes will out run Mayes.

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According to Chuck Todd of NBC NEWS an AZ Operative told him the Overall Electorate in AZ will be R+4.

If that's right I just don't see Kari Lake losing this.

And if I am honest: Kari Lake would be a fantastic Governor. She comes over as very likeable, very down to earth person.

IIRC, R+4 electorate is worse than 2018/2020 for the GOP. Lol. In that model, the Ds sweep most races, hold AZ-06, maybe Schweikert falls…

It will be higher than that.

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I told myself to write my predictions down and, I swear, went down a rabbit hole. It’s hard to make them “consistent” (e.g., how does Fontes win without Hobbs). But I’m going with my gut here!

My expectation: the initial drop will be favorable to Dems. They need double digit leads to have any shot. If Kelly is not +10 out of Maricopa initially, he’s probably screwed.

My other expectation is that Kelly and Hobbs will be more tightly connected than you’d expect from most polls. HOWEVER, I do not know what that means downballot. The Sinema/Kelly/Biden voters have shown enormous willingness to vote Ds for a couple races at the top and then bleed red. That is the true mystery of this year.

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Senate: Kelly (D) 50 / Masters (R) 48.5 / Victor (L) 1.5

AZ-01: Schweikert (R) 52.5 / Hodge (D)  47.5
AZ-02: Crane (R)  54 / O’Halleran (D) 46 FLIP
AZ-06: Ciscomani (R)  51 / Engel (D) 49 FLIP

Gov: Lake (R) 50.3 / Hobbs (D) 49.7

Secretary of State: Fontes (D) 50.8 / Finchem (R) 49.2

Attorney General: Hamadeh (R) 52.5 / Mayes (D) 47.5

Superintendent of Public Instruction: Horne (R) 52 / Hoffman (D) 48

Treasurer: Yee (R) 56 / Quezada (D)  44

AZ House: 33 R / 27 D
AZ Senate: 17 R / 13 D

Proposition “Yes” wins: 128, 129, 130, 209, 211, 309
Proposition “No” wins: 131, 132, 308, 310

My prop results are as illogical as Kelly/Lake/Fontes/Hamadeh/Horne…

[xavier110]

I told myself to write my predictions down and, I swear, went down a rabbit hole. It’s hard to make them “consistent” (e.g., how does Fontes win without Hobbs). But I’m going with my gut here!

My expectation: the initial drop will be favorable to Dems. They need double digit leads to have any shot. If Kelly is not +10 out of Maricopa initially, he’s probably screwed.

My other expectation is that Kelly and Hobbs will be more tightly connected than you’d expect from most polls. HOWEVER, I do not know what that means downballot. The Sinema/Kelly/Biden voters have shown enormous willingness to vote Ds for a couple races at the top and then bleed red. That is the true mystery of this year.

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Senate: Kelly (D) 50 / Masters (R) 48.5 / Victor (L) 1.5

AZ-01: Schweikert (R) 52.5 / Hodge (D)  47.5
AZ-02: Crane (R)  54 / O’Halleran (D) 46 FLIP
AZ-06: Ciscomani (R)  51 / Engel (D) 49 FLIP

Gov: Lake (R) 50.3 / Hobbs (D) 49.7

Secretary of State: Fontes (D) 50.8 / Finchem (R) 49.2

Attorney General: Hamadeh (R) 52.5 / Mayes (D) 47.5

Superintendent of Public Instruction: Horne (R) 52 / Hoffman (D) 48

Treasurer: Yee (R) 56 / Quezada (D)  44

AZ House: 33 R / 27 D
AZ Senate: 17 R / 13 D

Proposition “Yes” wins: 128, 129, 130, 209, 211, 309
Proposition “No” wins: 131, 132, 308, 310

My prop results are as illogical as Kelly/Lake/Fontes/Hamadeh/Horne…

My predictions are basically going to pan out. Except for 128 landslide No …

[xavier110]

It appears Democrats have won Biden + 1 state Senate district 4 which is quite impressive and also unexpected. This is a suburban seat that basically takes in parts of Scottsdale and North Pheonix suburbs that have been shifting left. In 2018 it voted for Ducey by almost 20 points, and many expected the district to experience severe downballot lag.

Dems lost the State Senate by losing SD-04, a Biden + 3 district mainly nested in the city of Gilbert to the West of Pheonix and south of Mesa. Again though, Dems put up a respectable fight considering.

I think Dems really should take AZ-Leg seriously in 2024. Winning all the Biden won seats (15) should be very doable because all the narrow ones have are suburban in nature and been having absolutely brutal shifts for the GOP.

You mean SD-13 in Gilbert. Don't forget district 17 in east and north Tucson suburbs - thats where the State House was lost and the senate is close as well. Also Sd-02 in north Phoenix. Oh and district 16, where the Dems got a surprise State House seat.

Basically, the commissions desire to draw a competitive, recognizable, and fair map was successful.

Yes my bad for messing up the numbering. It seems like the GOP have too many potential liabilities to be able to hold the state legislature. The only remotely competitive seat that seems to be shifting their way is heavily Hispanic district 23 which takes in Yuma and some exurban Hispanic parts of Tucson and Pheonix. It voted for Clinton by 19, Biden by 13 but Dems only held it by 7 this cycle. It's yet to be seen how much of that was due to low Hispanic turnout and how much was due to fundamental shifts.

Ds losing a house seat in 23 is shameful. House would be tied right now. Ducey lost it twice.

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Democrats serving as Gov, SOS, and AG is just mind blowing to me, lol. Pinch me.

Kari Lake is pathetic. On the ground, the vibes to me feel much different than 2020, when the crazies heard people all over the country saying the election was fraudulent. Right now it feels much more contained to AZ, so it feels less potent.

But watch them interrupt and hijack the certification proceedings.

[xavier110]

Democrats serving as Gov, SOS, and AG is just mind blowing to me, lol. Pinch me.

Kari Lake is pathetic. On the ground, the vibes to me feel much different than 2020, when the crazies heard people all over the country saying the election was fraudulent. Right now it feels much more contained to AZ, so it feels less potent.

But watch them interrupt and hijack the certification proceedings.

I’m shocked that Hoffman lost despite all that. Usually Dems do better in education superintendent races than other row offices.

Were there any other notable education races this year? It seems like voters punished her for COVID and being a D was not necessarily an advantage this time around, but I would love to see how other similar races fared. That and Tom Horne was not MAGA, even if he is scandal ridden and embarrassing.