2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[xavier110]

states with over 50% of 2016 turnout already:

Washington
Colorado
New Mexico
Montana
Texas
New Jersey
Georgia
Tennessee
North Carolina
Vermont

Getting close:

Florida (49.8%)

He hasn’t updated AZ which is at around 52-53% of 2016

[xavier110]

You just never know with Florida

I remember during the 2012 election Mitt Romney was leading in most FL polls and on election night The Obama campaign said that they expected Romney to win Florida

But as the numbers came in on election night Obama pulled off a shocking upset and won a state that even his own campaign said he was going to lose lol

It just goes to show that we dont truly know what FL is going to do until all the votes are counted. So yes the early vote looks ok for Trump so far but things also looked even Better for Mitt Romney in 2012 and look at how that worked out for him in the end......

Well I’ll put on my tinfoil hat and add that they didn’t have to steal votes last minute for Romney in FL because the election was already determined.

Almost every Florida election is suspect IMO, lol.

[xavier110]

are republicans closing the gap in AZ since voting has started or has it been stable? i havent been keeping up

https://twitter.com/TRElections/status/1320213142413168640

but is that ballots returned to date in 2020? we still have more time to go if they are only down by 40k.

Oh they will close the gap. Just it will nowhere be near the 16/18 GOP leads, and 18 was still a D+4/5 win in Maricopa despite the GOP advantage. A small GOP EV lead or tie seems to comport with high single digit maricopa lead for Biden  in polls, and that would basically guarantee a Biden victory in the state

Pima County (home of Tucson) is also looking excellent for Ds

[xavier110]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1320839567516160001

[xavier110]

We're now at 1.85 million AZ ballots processed. That's about 70% of the total 2016 vote (early+election day = 2.65m) in AZ.

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1321173417278619648

[xavier110]

So they mailed out 20k+ ballots with defective bar codes? Lol

[xavier110]

https://twitter.com/cbsdfw/status/1321143375760949256

They figured out Bagel's "lie about being disabled" scheme.

"Duplicating" ballots? Geez, this is guaranteed to be a litigation subject if Texas is close.

This is standard practice in most elections.

If a ballot reader rejects a ballot (say ink spilled everywhere on the area of one race), usually there is a bipartisan board that evaluates the ballot and rules on how the person intended to vote. Then they re-do the ballot with that selection marked off.

For example, in AZ:

Bipartisan boards of elections workers review ballots with crossed-out mistakes to see if they can determine this intent. A law passed earlier this year now allows employees to perform the adjudication process electronically.

[xavier110]

https://twitter.com/cbsdfw/status/1321143375760949256

They figured out Bagel's "lie about being disabled" scheme.

"Duplicating" ballots? Geez, this is guaranteed to be a litigation subject if Texas is close.

This is standard practice in most elections.

If a ballot reader rejects a ballot (say ink spilled everywhere on the area of one race), usually there is a bipartisan board that evaluates the ballot and rules on how the person intended to vote. Then they re-do the ballot with that selection marked off.

I agree, but we're normally talking about tens of ballots. At 22,000 ballots, there will be litigation over whether the original ballots need to be reviewed for consistency with the duplicated ballots.

That's fair. Hopefully no state or local races in that area are decided by 20k votes!

[xavier110]

NV is just simply not a thing. It will not be close. Move on, look elsewhere

[xavier110]

republicans are now tied in maricopa county with early mail in ballots assuming the NPA/others break by 10 points to biden, republicans need to secure around 50k or so to have a shot at winning the county? does anyone have any guesses on this?

does anyone have a good website for AZ that breaks out the vote?

They are still behind by about 11K.

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1321570284197965824?s=20
Republicans are gonna take the lead here as there are just purely more registered Republicans here, but they are not even close to where the county was in 2018 when Sinema won.

yes, but they say it's the opposite of 2018 where repbs voted early and dems closed the gap towards the end, just like repbs are doing now, but i think if they get like 30-50k lead that gives them a shot of keeping it close state wide if the rural margins are there. there isn't in person voting in AZ right?

What? Ds did not close any gap at the end of 2018. As the above poster mentioned they’re not even close to how it was in 2018 either.

The lag that caught Sinema up was simply tranches of mail ballots getting counted from various send dates. They couldn’t process early votes like they do now.

Now, all early votes can get counted two weeks before Election Day.

It’s hard to figure out what lead the Rs would need in early votes to win Maricopa. It would probably have to be significant. Is are going to break way harder than 10 points for Biden here and the GOP registered voter base will also have way more defections to Biden than most counties in the US, if things like AZ06 being competitive are true.

[xavier110]

Arizona at 80% of 2016 turnout and Dems still have a +3% lead. If they're killing it with Indies, then things are looking very good for Biden here.

ARIZONA (80.4% of 2016 turnout)
Dems 833,154 (38.9%)
Reps 768,386 (35.9%)
Other 538,819 (25.2%)
= 2,140,359

Dems at 70.4% return rate, Reps at 64.0%

We are barreling toward 3.2-3.3m total votes

[xavier110]

Most things I see look good. But this sounds...bad

https://twitter.com/nwarikoo/status/1321848871492984836

[xavier110]

I'll just put it here.

https://twitter.com/EricLevitz/status/1322245799682711553

Maricopa County electing a Democrat County Recoder -- and Arizona electing Hobbs Secretary of State -- were also huge. These races do matter.

[xavier110]

The GOP truly are the scum of the earth at this point

Not even up for debate.  Lock them up.

This is straigt up a cartoonish election between bad and evil. This is like picking between Luke Skywalker and Emperor Palpatine. Between Gandalf or Sauron. Between Harry Potter and Voldemort. This type of pure black or white situations don’t normally arise in western politics, but that is indeed what we are facing.

They don't even have a political platform. It is a cult. All hail Trump. It's unsustainable, and the path is either defeat and electoral humiliation until they figure their s*** out or full-blown fascism

[xavier110]

Republicans now hold a +23k lead over dems in Maricopa County,AZ

R - 577,185
D - 554,026
O - 403,687

assuming the independents go to the D's by 10 points it will be a pretty close in this county.

Sinema won while Republicans had a near double digit lead. Also, there are a good number of VBM days still left. Finally, AZ is likely the epicenter for registered Republican defections.

All of this.

[xavier110]

Looks like TX is gone. FL will be a heavy lift too.
https://twitter.com/snowmanomics/status/1323329093136506882?s=21

remember these are internals and the biden campaign does intentionally try to make things coser than they actually are to avoid complacency.Lastly, the ED vote might not be heavily republican as people thought and there will still be alot of D election votes such as ethnic minorities, students, and lower propensity dems. There will also be lower republican voters but the pool of potential voters is smaller than previously thought

Also these polls are deliberately leaving out indies and is just looking at straight D v R

I have no idea how to make sense of their models or what they mean in that chart. They look weird.

[xavier110]

https://twitter.com/ContentedIndie/status/1323374898610319362

Who is this guy and how does he have access to private polls?

He’s a nobody with a Twitter platform. Ignore.