2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[xavier110]

Lol the suburban Independent/Democratic rage is real. I’ve never seen anything like this!

[xavier110]

Maricopa
New update:
All: 169739  Dem: 78333  Rep: 53436 Other: 37970
Dem: 46.1  Rep: 31.5 Other: 22.4

Is that good for Dems or expected?

Yes. The largest lead Ds ever had in AZ early vote return in 2016 was about 7k. If AZ Ds maintain a lead, that will be a good sign.


https://mobile.twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1311763867903553536

[xavier110]

Daily Arizona update...

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1318230224052518912

[xavier110]

Daily Arizona update...

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1318230224052518912

If Democrats continue to outpace Republicans in Maricopa (where some Romney/Clinton voters probably haven't changed their registration yet), that's very bad news for Trump.

The largest lead that Ds ever held statewide in 2016 early returns was 8K votes. And it was a few days into early voting before GOP eclipsed them. So yeah, not looking good for the GOP when we are two weeks out and almost +90K D.

[xavier110]

https://twitter.com/abc7/status/1318176906932588544?s=21

Are California dropboxes under video surveillance?  Georgia ones are required to be.  If so, I hope they catch the perpetrator and send them to prison for a long time.

Yeah they must?

The 24 hour Dropbox in Phoenix has video surveillance and in-person security stationed when I went

[xavier110]

Turnout among Dems is still strong in AZ: https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns

Statewide:
Democrats 370,045
Republicans 276,305
Other 192,310

Maricopa:
Democrats 281,525
Republicans 218,631
Other 154,484

Yeah AZ is looking good. Even in 2018 Ds never had a lead like this. And they started counting today (online, it says our ballots were counted).

[xavier110]

Turnout among Dems is still strong in AZ: https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns

Statewide:
Democrats 370,045
Republicans 276,305
Other 192,310

Maricopa:
Democrats 281,525
Republicans 218,631
Other 154,484

Yeah AZ is looking good. Even in 2018 Ds never had a lead like this. And they started counting today (online, it says our ballots were counted).

Personally I think this underestimates the Democratic lead. It has Pima (Tucson) at around 91,000 returned. This article from 3 days ago (!) had the returned ballots at already 197,000.

https://www.kold.com/2020/10/18/record-number-early-ballots-returned-pima-county/

Yep. Numbers just grew.

Total Ballots: 938k
D: 421k
R: 303k
I: 213k
Turnout: 22%
Party Adv: +118k Dem

Pretty noots.

[xavier110]

AZ breaks 1m ballots cast two weeks before election day (out of 4m registered voters and 3m early ballot requests). There were 2.6m ballots cast in 2016 (74% turnout among registered voters).

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1318939182627123200

[xavier110]

look, I think Biden is favored in Nevada for sure, but it seems to be the only Clinton state Trump is still actively campaigning in.  I don't hear anything about Maine, New Hampshire, New Mexico, or even Minnesota anymore.  There has to be a reason for this.  Either an internal poll or optimism that he can make an economic argument that Biden will shut down the economy again or something which would hurt a resort town like Vegas.  It's a weak argument but I do worry that workers or unemployed people there will believe it.  

There’s also been a lot of crime on Vegas Strip recently. Law and order message could actually play well there.

[xavier110]

AZ seems like an under-looked at state too - Dems are still blowing Reps out of the water there.

Not only that, the I and R registered here will be a weird mix with some pro-Biden / Lincoln Project ish voters. So a D lead doesn’t matter that much - Ds were overwhelmed in ‘18 and still won.

[xavier110]

Your daily AZ update. 1.3 million ballots. Ds lead by 127k over Rs. Not looking like 2018 or 2016 here in the desert.

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1319361665444409345

[xavier110]

at least 6 states over 50% of 2016 totals now: Texas, Montana, New Mexico, New Jersey, Vermont, North Carolina.

A bit of a strange group (I'm looking at you, NM, NJ and VT)