Let's not rule out Dick Cheney...if we lose just one jetliner (though, obviously, I pray we don't), Cheney will be polling even with Obama.
Don't be silly. And also, Bush still got re-elected after 9/11... One could possibly argue that Bush wouldn't have gotten re-elected if not for 9/11.
I'd actually argue that Bush would have been re-elected in a landslide without 9/11. Wartime policy galvanized the hardline left against him. Additionally, wartime economies have crazy swings. The economy was beginning to improve prior to 9/11 and then it sunk into despair (with help from George Soros saying sell, sell, sell after old grannies pulled out their pensions to invest). There is also a massive increase in spending that occurs everytime we are involved in some war. Now, with that said, it would still be likely that we would still have the housing crash, but Clinton, rather than Obama succeeding Bush in office.