New Hampshire Primary (January 23) Megathread

[Birdish]

I’ll go against the grain here a bit. I think that the increased GOP “turnout” (or uptake, more likely) we’re seeing is indeed good for Haley, but bad for Biden. Granted, I don’t think much should be gleaned from Biden’s performance here no matter the results.

I'd argue the opposite. You'd imagine undeclared voters who would normally vote in the dem primary would be more likely to vote for Philips or Williamson.

[Birdish]

Has turnout analysis ever proved correct ?

No, but it sure is fun

[Birdish]

Klobmentum 2: The Haley-ing

[Birdish]

Hmmmm......

[Birdish]

AP Votecast/Early exit Poll :

https://apnews.com/article/how-why-new-hampshire-voted-primary-election-6768e1ae04ce2b88d64773a9672d04d8

Only 4 in 10 democrats say Biden is too old. Terrible for Phillips.

AP is giving a very different picture, more anti-Biden more pro-Trump.

Were AP, CNN or NBC most accurate for Iowa?

ABC, CBS, CNN and NBC all use Edison.

Fox News uses AP vote cast(along with the Associated Press)

[Birdish]

ABC, CBS, CNN and NBC all use Edison.

Fox New uses AP vote cast(along with the Associated Press)

Yeah, AP is better than Edison. AP/Fox split off from Edison after Edison has garbage exit polls in previous elections. IIRC the impetus for the change was the miss in 2016 being so bad.

Exit polls weren't great in 2020 either, from either provider.

[Birdish]

"Unprocessed write-ins" up with 75.3% in the dem primary.

I assume the majority of that is Biden.

[Birdish]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1749949911796183372?t=a5YdEbCkxUPsxIcxSFf7...
Joe you've shocked the nation.

Makes all those Politico articles seem abit silly in hindsight.

[Birdish]

Dean Phillips is winning Farmington, but I imagine that's because they haven't included any write-ins yet(which is at 0).

[Birdish]

Why would Democrats vote for Haley in a primary? Wouldn't you want Biden to have the weakest possible opponent in the fall? That is unquestionably Trump.

Haley doesn't have 91 criminal indictments and over half the country violently hating her guts. If Haley were nominated the election would end up being a referendum on Biden, his age, the economy, etc.

Did none of the Democrats pay attention to 2022 or are they still just shell shocked and terrified by 2016? Seriously, Trump and his brand of politics are weak in a general election.

Because they think Trump is going to end democracy, and don't want any risk at all because they are afraid he will create a dictatorship if he wins.

It's partially that, but a lot of moderates would rather just have a normal republican over Trump, or Biden for that matter.

[Birdish]

A new category just popped up seperate from "Unprocessed Write-Ins", "Other Write-ins".

So I imagine "Other" are other write-in names and "Unprocessed" is Joe.

[Birdish]

Van Jones once again on one again on CNN, saying how it's a warning sign for Democrats that Republicans are "not afraid of Biden" and that they're okay with putting Trump up despite his issues.

I guarantee Republican voters who are still with Trump don't care whether or not they're afraid of Biden or not. These are the people who believe Trump won in 2020 and will beat whoever is the Dem nominee.

Those voters aren't afraid of Biden because they believe his win wasn't legitimate and Trump already beat him.

[Birdish]

The needle is live

[Birdish]

Another great night for the president. Thank you!

Yes, a good showing for Biden.

[Birdish]

Most boring primaries ever.

Also it looks like polls are pretty accurate so far this year. Which should concern Biden supporters.

Polls clearly underestimated Haley, and Biden for that matter. I don't think I saw a single poll with him over 70%.

[Birdish]

Some of those CNN percentages look off.

[Birdish]

Found on twitter:

Durham, New Hampshire

Phillips 214
Williamson 93
Vermin Supreme 12
Others 46

Write-ins
Biden 1210
Ceasefire 71
Haley 21
Robert Kennedy 10
Whitmer 4
Buttigieg 4
West 4
Michelle Obama 3
Trump 3
Haya 2
Claudia de La Cruz 2
Al Gore 1
Ilhan Omar 1
Hunter Biden 1
Phoebe Bridgers 1

[Birdish]

Also, are we going to talk about how the polling average overestimated Trump? This of course I believe was due more to a last minute surge of Indies wading into the GOP primary, which was a bit unpredictable in terms of share (even 1% or 2% more or less would change things a few pts) but I do think there is an argument to be made for the whole "Trump always outperforms his polling" when he has now underperformed his polling twice now this cycle.

On the other hand, the Exit polls had Trump + 3.5%, so there is further evidence for the thesis that Exit Polls always underestimate Donald Trump. Which also confirms that "traditional" polling methods do. Of course, a lot of pollsters in response are producing polls that deviate from traditional practices for their public releases, but there isn't much evidence the underlying situation has changed since 2016. There is still a shy Trump voter, it is just some pollsters correct it in bizzarre ways.

The 2020 exit polls overestimated Trump.

[Birdish]

Biden will finish below 65%.

@emailking beat you to it by about 10 hours.

I think closer to 60 than 70. Should be 64 if the same take from unprocessed holds and I mathed that right.

[Birdish]

I'd imagine a good chunk of those 4600 Haley voters in the dem primary were hoping it would crossover and actually count in the Rep primary.