Florida, Missouri, and Ohio swinging GOP

[wnwnwn]

1 Parts of Florida has southern style electoral dynamics. Southern Florida has an unusual number of urban latino republicans.
2 Missouri is a semi southern state, with some great plains parts.
3 Ohio electorally nowadays is Indiana with more cities.

[wnwnwn]

Ohio is interesting as urban vs. rural split close to national average.  It is just as urbanized as Pennsylvania and Michigan while more so than Wisconsin.  Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati all have over a million people in greater area.  While Cleveland always solidly Democrat, Columbus has moved from swing to solidly Democrat and even Cincinnati which was once solidly GOP has swung opposite direction of state.  Biden won Hamilton County by double digits while Obama only by single and Bush in 2004 won it and I believe prior to 2008 it always voted more GOP than state as a whole, was bang on under Obama but voted to left of state since.  So with three million plus metro areas how does GOP win it so decisively is my question?

The Democratic Party in Ohio was always reliant on running it up in industrial cities and their surrounding areas in the North East like Cleveland, Akron, Youngstown, Warren, Toledo, Sandusky, Toledo and others to make up their large base. That provided with the Democrats a solid base in Ohio and then what the Democrats then had to do from there was to do either well in Cincinnati/Columbus like Obama did or in Appalachian Ohio like Clinton did.

In fact Cincinnati/Columbus trending Democratic actually caused the state to trend Democratic from 2000 to 2012 as well but then from 2012 to 2016 the Democrats just utterly collapsed in North East Ohio outside Cleveland and Akron and the problem with that is that was a core part of their base and without that the democrats have no chance of winning Ohio.



 

Northwestern Ohio was also part of the Clinton and Obama coalitions to win the state. Out of that, Obama didn't do that bad in southeastern Ohio.

[wnwnwn]

1 Parts of Florida has southern style electoral dynamics. Southern Florida has an unusual number of urban latino republicans.
2 Missouri is a semi southern state, with some great plains parts.
3 Ohio electorally nowadays is Indiana with more cities.

And a lot of those Latino Republicans and Latino Independents are composed of Cuban-Americans and Venezuelan Americans who overwhelmingly went to the Republicans because they see Democrats as too soft on issues like Cuba or Venezuela and they saw free enterprise as system that can guarantee freedom.

Absolutely and while not a huge part of state, places like Hialeah vote unusually Republican for a suburb, especially one as close and as densely populated as it is.  At same time seems much of the growth in Florida is in secondary cities like Daytona Beach, Melbourne, Fort Myers, Sarasota and GOP dominates those as very sprawled.  Northern part of state is a lot like other parts of Deep South and more racially polarized in voting patterns.  Amongst non-Hispanic whites, Biden did much better in Florida than Georgia.  Big reason won Georgia is much larger African-American population who are reliably Democrat and also better ground game so higher turnout too amongst them.

Keep in mind that Venezuelan, Colombian & Nicaraguan Hispanics in South FL were more open voting Democratic during the Obama Presidency but they got really ticked off when the FL & Democratic National Party moved too far to the left in recent years.

They are just scared by the Squad and the anti-West discourses by them and other leftists. Those voters usually value the 'american dream' and republicans try to appeal to those feelings. On the issues Biden (well, a younger Biden) could appeal for those type of voters, but we and they know that the party direction doesn't go that way.