🇨🇦 2024 Canadian by-elections

[Open Source Intelligence]

This Newfoundland result is surprising - is the incumbent provincial government really popular or something?

I don't know if the Liberal government is especially popular but from what I've read and have been told by a person in Newfoundland, they've hit upon a success in economic development which should mean at the very least that the province won't have a decline in population as had been expected.

Essentially, the government has decided to focus on what business professor Michael Porter coined 'clustering' about 40 years ago (referred to as 'network effects' in economics) and focus on tourism and especially the arts for economic development. The people behind this say they want to turn Newfoundland and Labrador into the leading arts hub in North America.

As a person admittedly old economy I hear this as the economic plan for a province and just think "eff off, come back to me when you've grown up and become serious".

There's nothing wrong with being artsy, but when you're talking about the arts as we're going to drive economic development with that, the arts only work economically if they have patrons, and those patrons make their money from what? It's no different than a pro sports team. A pro sports team in an area can generate economic development to a point, but it only works if there's people and/or corporations buying the tickets, and if business sucks/there's no jobs, they're not going to. The sports team's financial health at the gate is dependent on the economy that surrounds them. Arts like the sports team or any entertainment enterprise are not primary economic generators, they are derivatives.

[Open Source Intelligence]

This Newfoundland result is surprising - is the incumbent provincial government really popular or something?

I don't know if the Liberal government is especially popular but from what I've read and have been told by a person in Newfoundland, they've hit upon a success in economic development which should mean at the very least that the province won't have a decline in population as had been expected.

Essentially, the government has decided to focus on what business professor Michael Porter coined 'clustering' about 40 years ago (referred to as 'network effects' in economics) and focus on tourism and especially the arts for economic development. The people behind this say they want to turn Newfoundland and Labrador into the leading arts hub in North America.

As a person admittedly old economy I hear this as the economic plan for a province and just think "eff off, come back to me when you've grown up and become serious".

There's nothing wrong with being artsy, but when you're talking about the arts as we're going to drive economic development with that, the arts only work economically if they have patrons, and those patrons make their money from what? It's no different than a pro sports team. A pro sports team in an area can generate economic development to a point, but it only works if there's people and/or corporations buying the tickets, and if business sucks/there's no jobs, they're not going to. The sports team's financial health at the gate is dependent on the economy that surrounds them. Arts like the sports team or any entertainment enterprise are not primary economic generators, they are derivatives.

California:
Overall, the creative economy directly contributed 14.9 percent ($507.4 billion) of the state's $3.4 trillion economy, and 7.6 percent of its jobs.

Show business is big business.

You're confusing two items and acting as though they are one. Hollywood is not an "arts" business as you're saying Newfoundland should be. It's in that context much more a cold manufacturing business. The widgets they're manufacturing are films that use the inputs of local labor, get distributed globally, and they have budgets and cost accounts and are required to make back their costs plus more to pay back the investors. Black Adam made $400 million and was considered a box-office bomb (read: business failure), no different than a car that moves units but after engineering, marketing, rebates, etc. is deemed a business failure. What widget would the Newfoundland arts hub produce that generates long-term sustainable jobs for the province to the point it can positively influence the Newfoundland economy above asterisk level and can also be a business success not subject to the whims of the greater economy?

"Arts" is a guy makes one painting of the Newfoundland landscape and sells it for $5000. It's a one-time thing and the economic activity is done after the sale and then trickle down economics/economic multiplier is everything the guy then spends that $5000 on, so if the guy buys a coffee every morning a small percentage of that $5000 goes into the coffee shop and its workers (i.e. service industries are likewise derivatives and not primary economic generators). What's unknown here is who is the guy that bought the painting for $5000 and from where did he make his money, because if not for him and his trickle down/economic multiplier, no economic activity would have occurred and we would just have a landscape sitting on the wall collecting dust.

Manufacturing that generates economic development in contrast would be a setup of a few people working together that mass produce paintings of Newfoundland landscapes, selling them each for $25 and their production numbers are based on balancing supply and demand to be a long-lasting business that runs steady instead of just a one-off creation.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Final results

Matt MacFarlane (Green) 1,226 (48.9%) +14.1
Carmen Reeves (PC) 964 (38.5%) -21.7
Gordon Sobey (Liberal) 272 (10.9%)
Karen Morton (NDP) 40 (1.6%) -1.3

Green gain from PC.

Turnout: 58.9% (-9.1)

Congrats to the PEI Greens. I think this makes them tied with the Liberals in terms of seats now - who gets to be the Official Opposition?

It will be up to the Speaker. They could go with the Liberals, since they are the incumbent official opposition, or the Greens, since they got a higher popular vote total in the last election. Or they could have both parties rotate or share the role. I believe there are precedents for any of those options from other jurisdictions.

I hope Rock Paper Scissors occurs.

[Open Source Intelligence]

This Newfoundland result is surprising - is the incumbent provincial government really popular or something?

I don't know if the Liberal government is especially popular but from what I've read and have been told by a person in Newfoundland, they've hit upon a success in economic development which should mean at the very least that the province won't have a decline in population as had been expected.

Essentially, the government has decided to focus on what business professor Michael Porter coined 'clustering' about 40 years ago (referred to as 'network effects' in economics) and focus on tourism and especially the arts for economic development. The people behind this say they want to turn Newfoundland and Labrador into the leading arts hub in North America.

As a person admittedly old economy I hear this as the economic plan for a province and just think "eff off, come back to me when you've grown up and become serious".

There's nothing wrong with being artsy, but when you're talking about the arts as we're going to drive economic development with that, the arts only work economically if they have patrons, and those patrons make their money from what? It's no different than a pro sports team. A pro sports team in an area can generate economic development to a point, but it only works if there's people and/or corporations buying the tickets, and if business sucks/there's no jobs, they're not going to. The sports team's financial health at the gate is dependent on the economy that surrounds them. Arts like the sports team or any entertainment enterprise are not primary economic generators, they are derivatives.

California:
Overall, the creative economy directly contributed 14.9 percent ($507.4 billion) of the state's $3.4 trillion economy, and 7.6 percent of its jobs.

Show business is big business.

You're confusing two items and acting as though they are one. Hollywood is not an "arts" business as you're saying Newfoundland should be. It's in that context much more a cold manufacturing business. The widgets they're manufacturing are films that use the inputs of local labor, get distributed globally, and they have budgets and cost accounts and are required to make back their costs plus more to pay back the investors. Black Adam made $400 million and was considered a box-office bomb (read: business failure), no different than a car that moves units but after engineering, marketing, rebates, etc. is deemed a business failure. What widget would the Newfoundland arts hub produce that generates long-term sustainable jobs for the province to the point it can positively influence the Newfoundland economy above asterisk level and can also be a business success not subject to the whims of the greater economy?

"Arts" is a guy makes one painting of the Newfoundland landscape and sells it for $5000. It's a one-time thing and the economic activity is done after the sale and then trickle down economics/economic multiplier is everything the guy then spends that $5000 on, so if the guy buys a coffee every morning a small percentage of that $5000 goes into the coffee shop and its workers (i.e. service industries are likewise derivatives and not primary economic generators). What's unknown here is who is the guy that bought the painting for $5000 and from where did he make his money, because if not for him and his trickle down/economic multiplier, no economic activity would have occurred and we would just have a landscape sitting on the wall collecting dust.

Manufacturing that generates economic development in contrast would be a setup of a few people working together that mass produce paintings of Newfoundland landscapes, selling them each for $25 and their production numbers are based on balancing supply and demand to be a long-lasting business that runs steady instead of just a one-off creation.

You're getting hung up on a word.

Read the Forbes article I posted and you'll see I mean the widgets and not just the paintings. Certainly however, film production needs the 'painters' as well (set decoration, storyboarding...)

The artists are needed with the widgets. You can either call them complements or network effects.

I'm a mechanical engineer on satellites that go up in space. By the esteemed arts definition, I guess I should instead be called fabricated exotic metal designer.

[Open Source Intelligence]

While letting the Tories widen the gap in a seat like Milton is undoubtedly an embarrassment for the Liberals, some OLP people are claiming that federal dynamics made it hard for them to turn out voters, because not many people are interested in voting for someone who calls themselves a Liberal right now due to its association with the federal government (maybe they should change their name? Ontario United, maybe?) But if this really is a significant factor, the silver lining for Ontario Liberals is that by 2026, this may no longer be an issue.

Indeed, Ontarians love to elect different parties in Ottawa and Queen's Park.

Wouldn't it be in Ford's interest then to call a snap election?