This. There's always a swoon of low info voters for candidates who purportedly "tell it like it is". They tend to fade.
How is Trump going to maintain the media attention by invoking increasingly inflamatory statements for the next 6 months without people getting bored and/or turned off? Answer, he won't.
Likewise, I wouldn't hold hope of him doing well in the debates.
The one thing to separate him from being another Bachmann is his fortune. That'll keep him in the game as long as he wants (i.e. until the field has winnowed out to a few real contenders and his showings become humiliating).
Donald Trump has been capturing headlines by being an @sshole for as long as I've been alive. To think that he can't sustain this for six months is wishful thinking.
If this were some newcomer, you might be right.