Rick Snyder 2016

[dmmidmi]

You mean the same Rick Snyder who is leading an unknown opponent by single-digits?

Actually, the biggest thing holding him back would be his serious lack of charisma. Marketing himself as The Nerd isn't an accident--it's incredibly accurate. His public speaking skills are obviously lacking, because his demeanor is very, very awkward.

[dmmidmi]

Recently, a Detroit News opinion editorial suggested the Michigan governor for 2016 if he's reelected in November 2014. Would he be a Romney 2.0 since he's a former venture capitalist?

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20140608/OPINION01/306080001

Detroit News is to be dismissed.

This is why I didn't start a thread with this garbage. I saw the editorial a few days back. But after considering the source and laughable subject matter, I figured it wasn't even worth posting.

Governor of a big purple state with a business background?

Incorrect.

Michigan is a Democratic presidential base state.

This is also correct.

[dmmidmi]

This whole conversation is incredibly moot since Rick Snyder will not win reelection in 2014.

But no, he would not be a 2016 contender. He isn't presidential at all.

I love your optimism, but I do think he'll win re-election this year.

Governor of a big purple state with a business background?

Incorrect.

Michigan is a Democratic presidential base state.

Fair enough. I thought it was within five points of the popular vote, although it's actually closer to six. It's winnable for Republicans, but only in a very good cycle.

Technically, that suggests Snyder is even more impressive.

Bush only lost Michigan by five points in 2000 and three points in 2004.  Obama and Clinton carried it by wider margins because those were strong Democrat years nationally.  Michigan is clearly a swing state and NOT safely Democrat.

No. "Swing state or safely Democrat" is a false dichtotomy. It's a lean D state that would only fall in a Republican landslide.

Or possibly in a moderately Republican year like 2004 if the GOP nominee is from Michigan...

Possibly. Gerald Ford lost nationally by two, but won Michigan by six. However, I don't think this will come in my lifetime. Granholm and Engler both left office with hideous approval ratings (I can't find Blanchard, Milliken, or Romney's approvals by the time they left office). Typically, when a Michigan politician is done with their elected office, they're done with politics in the state, period (one reason why Blanchard lost the 2002 Democratic nomination for Governor).

Put another way--in this strange universe where John Engler was the GOP nominee for President (I'm sure I can hear all of the board members laughing at this scenario), he wouldn't carry Michigan's electoral votes unless he won nationally by at least five or six. If Jennifer Granholm was the Democratic nominee for President, she may put those electoral votes in jeopardy--if she won them, it would be despite the fact that she was Governor of Michigan, not because of it.

The theory you suggest, "Or possibly in a moderately Republican year like 2004 if the GOP nominee is from Michigan..." is nice to think about in abstract. But remember--a real, living and breathing politician has to fill that role.

[dmmidmi]

This whole conversation is incredibly moot since Rick Snyder will not win reelection in 2014.

But no, he would not be a 2016 contender. He isn't presidential at all.

I love your optimism, but I do think he'll win re-election this year.

Governor of a big purple state with a business background?

Incorrect.

Michigan is a Democratic presidential base state.

Fair enough. I thought it was within five points of the popular vote, although it's actually closer to six. It's winnable for Republicans, but only in a very good cycle.

Technically, that suggests Snyder is even more impressive.

Bush only lost Michigan by five points in 2000 and three points in 2004.  Obama and Clinton carried it by wider margins because those were strong Democrat years nationally.  Michigan is clearly a swing state and NOT safely Democrat.

No. "Swing state or safely Democrat" is a false dichtotomy. It's a lean D state that would only fall in a Republican landslide.

Or possibly in a moderately Republican year like 2004 if the GOP nominee is from Michigan...

Possibly. Gerald Ford lost nationally by two, but won Michigan by six. However, I don't think this will come in my lifetime. Granholm and Engler both left office with hideous approval ratings (I can't find Blanchard, Milliken, or Romney's approvals by the time they left office). Typically, when a Michigan politician is done with their elected office, they're done with politics in the state, period (one reason why Blanchard lost the 2002 Democratic nomination for Governor).

Put another way--in this strange universe where John Engler was the GOP nominee for President (I'm sure I can hear all of the board members laughing at this scenario), he wouldn't carry Michigan's electoral votes unless he won nationally by at least five or six. If Jennifer Granholm was the Democratic nominee for President, she may put those electoral votes in jeopardy--if she won them, it would be despite the fact that she was Governor of Michigan, not because of it.

The theory you suggest, "Or possibly in a moderately Republican year like 2004 if the GOP nominee is from Michigan..." is nice to think about in abstract. But remember--a real, living and breathing politician has to fill that role.

First off, I really appreciate your opinion, especially since you are from Michigan. That gives a useful insight.

When I wrote that a Republican nominee from Michigan could win the state in a moderately Republican year, I thought of Rick Snyder. If he won the nomination, it seems that he would be well-positioned to carry the state provided he has the wind at his back. It might be hard for Snyder to win the state if he only has 48-49% of the national vote (around Bush's performance in 2000), but if he can make it to 51% nationally, I suspect that Michigan would be about 50/50.

That could certainly be the case--I don't think anyone would say that that couldn't happen.

To be honest--and this is anecdotal, so take it for what it's worth--it seems like Michigan's Governors are chronically unpopular. Jennifer Granholm was never particularly popular--neither was John Engler. The last Governor who seemed to achieve any real level of sustained popularity was William Milliken, and that may have come after his time as Governor.

It doesn't seem like Debbie Stabenow is in a position to make a run for higher office. Neither Gary Peters nor Terri Lynn Land seem like they would ever find themselves in a position to do so, either.

The only person currently serving in any sort of electoral capacity in Michigan that I could see making that sort of run is Justin Amash--and he isn't winning anything statewide in Michigan.

[dmmidmi]

This whole conversation is incredibly moot since Rick Snyder will not win reelection in 2014.

Yes, he will.

Uh did you see today's PPP poll? It looks REALLY good for Schauer. His name recognition is atrocious yet he ties Snyder, and Snyder's approval rating is absolute garbage. And Snyder's "right to work" law is unpopular. It's Michigan, so undecideds will break Democrat, and like pbrower said, GOTV from big labor as well as a general increase in Schauer's name recognition (and as a result, popularity) will get Schauer over the line.

To be fair, no other pollster shows Schauer doing so well (coincidentally, or perhaps not, PPP is the only recent pollster there to not use an LV screen). Of course, many of these other pollsters were dead wrong in 2012. It would be nice to get a good pollster in Michigan to see if the results are similar to PPP, but that's probably too much to ask.

You just accurately addressed the first sentence in your post.

But Snyder consistently posting leads between three and eleven points, among pollsters who collectively showed a significant GOP-leaning house effect in 2012, shouldn't be considered a commanding lead, by any stretch of the imagination.

[dmmidmi]

The Detroit Water issue may cause problems for Snyder if he runs for president in 2016. The issue would be played over and over in  the media.

http://www.mlive.com/news/detroit/index.ssf/2014/07/large_water_shutoff_protest_pl.html

The real issue has nothing to do with people's water being shut off, or the protests. The real issue revolves around the future of the Detroit Water and Sewage Department, and whether or not it becomes privatized.