Ohio Ballot Issue 1 Megathread (August 8)

[BigZuck08]

I say No over 60%. Even hardcore MAGA fans are against it, as mentioned in an earlier post.

I hope I'm right and that Ohioans reject this blatant power grab by politicians. #VoteNoOnIssue1OH

[BigZuck08]

https://decisiondeskhq.com/election-results-ohio-issue-1-and-the-mississippi-primary/

"No" has just won with Ohio Issue 1.

[BigZuck08]

The night wouldn't have been complete without this:

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1689074366514896896

waaaaa waaaa waaaa goo goo ga ga the side I rooted for lost so it rigged waaa waa waaa

Smh.

[BigZuck08]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1689068581810839552

LOL.

[BigZuck08]

I'm watching the election still and "Yes" is starting to gain votes, Fulton, Williams, Ashtabula, and a bunch of other southern Ohio counties flipped to Yes.

At least "No" was already declared the winner.

[BigZuck08]

I'm watching the election still and "Yes" is starting to gain votes, Fulton, Williams, Ashtabula, and a bunch of other southern Ohio counties flipped to Yes.

At least "No" was already declared the winner.

Yeah, the Ohio reporting is always a huge blue mirage, Biden and Ryan also had leads in the 60s into the evening. I think No will end up winning by 10 points or so.

Same.

[BigZuck08]

My official statement concerning this election has just been released:

"Today Ohioans have rejected a blatant power grab manifested by the Ohio Republican Party. Today Ohioans went to the polls to vote on Issue 1, which is an issue that would make it harder to amend changes to the state's constitution. Ohioans saw it for what it is, and rejected it, overwhelmingly. Democrats, Republicans, and Independents all came together in a rare moment of bipartisanship -- and said no to the greedy politicians and special interests. Today is a great day for democracy and bipartisanship within the state of Ohio, and a bad one for special interests in the state."

Thoughts?

[BigZuck08]

I'm watching the election still and "Yes" is starting to gain votes, Fulton, Williams, Ashtabula, and a bunch of other southern Ohio counties flipped to Yes.

At least "No" was already declared the winner.

Well, as mentioned earlier, the typical reporting pattern in recent OH statewide elections is for Democrats to start out with an initial lead (as early/absentee votes are reported first) and then for Republicans to chip away at the Democratic lead and (usually) overtake Democrats into the lead at some point. Thus, on Election Night 2024, we should expect Joe Biden and Sherrod Brown to be ahead in the time period immediately after polls close, but we still need to see the results from key counties (in this case, Butler, Cuyahoga, Delaware, Franklin, Hamilton, Lake, Lorain, Lucas, Mahoning, Stark, Summit, and Warren) in order to get a better sense of which party/candidate is on track to win.

Makes sense.

[BigZuck08]

Flipping pro-choice Republicans into regular Democratic voters should be the biggest focus for the rest of this decade. Imagine what we could accomplish if we got even half of them to come over.

That's going to be tough, considering that abortion is probably not the only issue for a pro-choice Republican...

[BigZuck08]

NO raw vote lead had been holding pretty steady at between 250-275K. ED vote looks to be splitting roughly 50/50.

Note that the ED vote we've gotten is mostly from redder areas of the state; would expect some of the remainder should be a touch more favorable to No.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1689083154403901440

What site did you find that data?

[BigZuck08]

Flipping pro-choice Republicans into regular Democratic voters should be the biggest focus for the rest of this decade. Imagine what we could accomplish if we got even half of them to come over.

The issue is trying to convince them. There are Republican voters who don't agree with abortion rights being completely taken away, but will never vote Democrats for partisan reasons.

True, but in this day and age, I can't imagine it being very successful. The only way you would get these voters to vote on the D side is on ballot questions like OH Issue 1.

[BigZuck08]

NO raw vote lead had been holding pretty steady at between 250-275K. ED vote looks to be splitting roughly 50/50.

Note that the ED vote we've gotten is mostly from redder areas of the state; would expect some of the remainder should be a touch more favorable to No.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1689083154403901440

What site did you find that data?

I'm just quoting the twitter post, I didn't do the analysis myself.

Oh ok.

[BigZuck08]

This is a good night for people who support democracy.

Agreed.

[BigZuck08]

Flipping pro-choice Republicans into regular Democratic voters should be the biggest focus for the rest of this decade. Imagine what we could accomplish if we got even half of them to come over.

The issue is trying to convince them. There are Republican voters who don't agree with abortion rights being completely taken away, but will never vote Democrats for partisan reasons.

True, but in this day and age, I can't imagine it being very successful. The only way you would get these voters to vote on the D side is on ballot questions like OH Issue 1.

I will say it at least works well as a rallying call.

True.