Likely this...................
Green - RomneyBlue - GingrichRed - PawlentyEven though Gringrich's approval ratings are still low, it can be assumed that he will have sought to try and raise them beforehand and while campaigning. Pawlenty will probably not gain traction and only split the vote with Romney, which is why Gingrich wins states like Wyoming and Idaho. However, since the economy is likely to be the problem, Romney will have the edge, and after Pawlenty's inevitable withdrawal, wwill cruise to victory.