Updated ratings from Split Ticket

[cherry mandarin]

That's close to where I see it, except I think AZ is is Lean Biden. The recent 19th century abortion debacle, combined with Kari Lake being on the ballot again and the general shift in AZ will likely sink Trump unless Biden has such poor performance nationwide that AZ doesn't matter anyway. I.e. I think AZ will vote to the left of all the other undecided states.

Yes, I'm well aware of the polling that shows a strong Trump lead in AZ. I will believe it if I see it in November.

If I am correct, that means Biden needs GA or MI or WI+NV to win, while Trump needs MI and GA and WI or NV.

It is, of course, possible there's a significant nationwide swing for or against either candidate by November and the above becomes most irrelevant as, for example Trump wins PA or Biden wins NC. But if nothing significantly changes between now and November, I think the election is Lean Biden.

Imo Trump is neither an underdog in AZ nor PA right now.

I also wouldn’t move Georgia just yet, or not if one of the rust belt trio states also aren’t being moved to lean.

Why should any of those three states be moved out of the toss-up column? They’re all within 2 points in the polls right now.

[cherry mandarin]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1791985932523938105

Why is NM Safe D? Also, I think NH is more likely to vote to the left of ME-AL than it is to the right of MN.

To be clear any state I think will be within 15, even if it’s 14.9 (this is roughly where I think KS ends up) gets the “likely” treatment from me

In that case, I think Safe D NJ is a little bit crazy.

Polls in all rust belt states show the race within the margin of error … so I don’t get you saying there is “no data” to back it up.

In that case why not call them toss-ups?

Also, there’s more to predicting an election then just polls, for example, fundamentals, fundraising, specials etc all favour Dems. I’m taking this into account

Is presidential approval rating not a “fundamental” now? How about voters’ opinions on the state of the economy?