As you say, Rs aren't participating in the Nevada primary anyway so it's a moot point for them. That said, jumping in in November is 100% insane. It's also a big gamble on how the 2023 off-off year races in VA go. If Dems retake the VA State House (very possible) he looks awful and weak right as he joins.
Well, the nice part about delaying is that you get to re-calibrate your campaign behind the scenes rather than having to do it out in public.
I agree that waiting until November isn't smart at all, but presumably if he's doing that, he'll only join the race if those elections go well for the GOP.
Rather than committing to the race too early and suffering an embarrassing defeat back home (perhaps his nationwide ambitions might even hurt the VA Republicans there) he gets to wait everything out and see how things go, timing his declaration to a moment of positive coverage instead.
