Let's Play a Game: Tell me why you think Trump is favored in November WITHOUT using polls

[quesaisje]

High interest rates are choking out economic hope.

The federal government is paralyzed by debt and political dysfunction.

The incumbent party relies on votes from a coalition that suffers from increasingly fraught internal divisions, including on sensitive issues such as crime, border security, and the war between Israel and Hamas.

The administration is struggling to cope with a challenging series of foreign policy crises, few of which appear likely to abate in the coming months, and some of which could get significantly worse.

Given these circumstances, do you trust Your Fellow Americans to vote for a well-meaning incumbent running as a respecter of norms, tradition, and rule of law over a strongman who promises to fix all of their problems by ruling as an autocrat?

[quesaisje]

Regarding high housing prices, President Biden should simply point to Wall Street as the fall guy for puchasing starter homes and pricing ordinary people out of the market, and by extension the Republican Party which has traditionally been an ally of Wall Street, and run on presenting policies that would counter that.  That would make sense to most Amercans. The truth is probably more complicated than that, but I would rather let Repubicans do the explaining, because once you're explaining, you're losing.  

MAGA Republicans always have the advantage in campaigns fought on this level of cynicism, for two reasons: (1) they are more committed to the bit, and (2) the Democratic coalition is more dependent on their ability to deliver results once in office.