Is McCormick really the best the establishment Republicans can do?
If they're dead set on nominating a phony hedge fund executive couldn't they have found one that wasn't a carpetbagger?
The carpetbagger attack hurt Oz last time and I dont see why it wont be at least partially effective this time, and McCormick is easy to paint as an elitist.
Pennsylvania is a huge state, there are tons of Republicans who are immune to both attacks. I get that someone like Fitzpatrick could never win the primary, but why isn't the establishment uniting behind someone better than McCormick?
Who else is there? I doubt any of the House Rs want to lose their seats for a probable loss, and the State Officers are running for re-election, and so that leaves McCormick.
I dont think the challenger necessarily has to be an office holder. Back in 1994 Mitt Romney temporarily left Bain capital to run against Ted Kennedy, he ended up losing but was able to resume his corporate position. There has to be some born and bred Pennsylvanian Republican executive who could put up a pronounced challenge to Bob Casey from a blank slate. They would probably still lose, but might have a chance depending on the national climate come election day.
Trump and Toomey won Pennsylvania in 2016, and it looks like the republican field is relatively sparse this time around. Oz was certainly hurt in the general by the attack ads directed at him during the primary. If the field stays sparse, and one major contender arises then they wont have to carry over any baggage from the primary into the general. keeping all that in mind I think a good candidate would keep the race close.