Argentina 2023 election

[Aurelius2]

Dollarization makes more sense from the 1980s to 2008 when the USA had a stable monetary policy.  Since 2008 the entire USA monetary system has gone haywire.  If I were Milei which I am very sympathetic to I would advocate for an independent central bank with inflation targeting plus laws that mandate balanced budgets.

The dollar is imperfect but have you *seen* the Argentine peso? This is like if a teenager is having a heart attack and a doctor says give them an aspirin, but you refuse since giving aspirin to minors for fever and pain is discouraged due to slight risk of Reye Syndrome.

[Aurelius2]

I wouldn’t even say Peronism is social democratic. Kirchnerism, maybe, but one could make a case that the UCR is more of a historically social democratic party than the Justicialistas.

Peronism is essentially a chamaleonic and massive clientelist machine with no other ideology than to remain in power. It may have had a quasi-fascist "third position" flavor (Perón), a 90s free-market liberal flavor (Menem, even when he won his first election as a center left populist), a "Pink Tide" progressive one (Kirchnerism) and a long etc... But basically, it's just one movement in the sense that the actors are mostly the same in each of its different incarnations.

Their members will justify themselves saying that Peronism is some kind of mystical metaideological position always "on the side of the People", defending them against the bourgeoisie (gorilas), the traitors (vendepatrias), the oligarchy, etc.  Obviously, this is a lot of bullsh**t.

Basically, they created the perfect populist movement. And now Milei is some kind of anti-populist populist candidate. I know that doesn't make sense but Argentine politics rarely does.

Don't the Kirchners claim to be anti-Peronist nowadays? I'm so confused.

[Aurelius2]

I do think Argentina is heading towards hyperinflation circa 2026 or so, the situation will only keep getting worse during Milei’s term, which could or could not add force to the narrative of dropping the Peso for a US currency.

Didn't they do that in the 90s and their economy collapsed?

I get what you're saying about how it might be better if he's the one in power when the economy implodes so that he and his politics are completely delegitimized, I'm just worried that he could become a dictator based on his complete inability/unwillingness to compromise with anyone who disagrees with him.  He seems for more dangerous than Bolsonaro or Trump IMO.

I hope that idiotic comment about the Malvinas kills his campaign.

"Idiotic" in what way?

[Aurelius2]

There’s been a big storm after Milei’s proposed Foreign Minister said about Falklands that “the will of the islanders should be respected”. Much of Argentine media (especially left-wing, Página/12 and such) reacted by writing articles full of fire-breathing ethnic nationalism seemingly straight out of 1990s Balkans that put “self-determination” in scare quotes and talked about “a population of occupiers”. The Secretary of Falklands (an actual government position!) said that “Milei wants to impose the desires of 3,000 islanders on 46 million Argentinians.”

Really, this confirms that the Argentinian obsession with Falklands is just a hilariously pathetic attempt to imitate 19th century European imperialism.

This is a pathetic and ignorant thing to say. According to the UN, the Malvinas are a non-self-governing territory, where it is specified that the British settlers are not a people with the right to self-determination, study resolution 2065, please.

I don't give a damn what the pansies at the UN say.

[Aurelius2]

Friendly reminder that this thread is about Argentina.

[Aurelius2]

Links to follow election day (official results expected around 9PM ET):

LN+ (liberal conservative, pro Bullrich):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4e8Iw3Frf1A

TN (hmmm, maybe anti Peronist centrism?, pro Bullrich):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cb12KmMMDJA&pp=ygUKdG4gZW4gdml2bw%3D%3D

C5N (Kirchnerist):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xwupNXFI7-4

1. Is 9PM ET when the results begin coming in, or when it's all counted?

2. Are there any pro-Milei channels to follow?

[Aurelius2]

Is Massa outright good or simply the lesser of two evils?

He's the economy minister who lately has overseen 200%+ hyperinflation, so...

[Aurelius2]

I imagine that essentially all of the 2.5-3% who voted communist will vote Massa if they even bother voting. Who will the Schiaretti voters go for? My impression is that he's sort of taken the "harmless inoffensive moderate hero" lane and I have no idea how that demographic will break in a race between Mr. Hyperinflation and Mr. Chainsaw.

[Aurelius2]

Take a drink each time Massa says "convivencia democratica".

My Spanish is only good enough to understand about half of what they're saying (a bit less for Milei, whose accent is a bit harder for me to follow). Still been kind of interesting to listen though. A minute ago they were shouting at each other about Macri. Been surprised how calm it's been overall though.

[Aurelius2]

Closing statements just happened. Disclaimer: my Spanish is terrible - I'd probably be like an A2 or low B1 if I tested. Take this all with a huge grain of salt until we hear from one of the Argies or other actual Spanish speakers.

I didn't catch Massa's entire statement, but he talked a lot about a "crack in society" (there's probably a better translation of "grieta"?) between the north of Argentina and the richer parts. Said there is a choice between a path of violence and a forward-looking vision and he offers the latter. Said the government needs to work for the whole people and uplift everyone.

Milei called it the most important election in 100 years, said Argentina has an opportunity to reject the path of poverty and indigence it's been on for far too long, and I think said something about choosing between the same old populism and a stronger economy for a better future. Said Argentina can become a model of freedom and prosperity but first the people need to vote to free it.

[Aurelius2]

Any official results out yet? When do polls close?

[Aurelius2]

Man, this is gonna be so f**kin' lit.

https://twitter.com/bennyjohnson/status/1692224414593478923
https://twitter.com/mistergusano/status/1726253574588649647
Great days are ahead for Argentina!

[Aurelius2]

if they want to run the country into the ground in this way, more power to them, I guess. I don't expect things will get better with this nutcase in power.

Massa, who wanted to abolish taxation entirely while continuing to grow social programs and handouts, sure would be better.

[Aurelius2]

Step 1: call the Pope, who is from your country, a socialist son of a bitch.
Step 2: call Margaret Thatcher, who won a war against your country, your hero.
Step 3: ???
Step 4: win.

[Aurelius2]

I made a thread in IGD for non election talk. https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?board=3.0

[Aurelius2]

What was so appealing about him?  He seems like a libertarian and always thought libertarianism only benefits very wealthy in society while bad for everyone else?

Argentina has 143% inflation. Massa, the candidate who Milei was running against, has been economy minister for the past year and a half as inflation has surged. Massa spent $8 billion handing out goodies to voters in advance of the election, and notably promised to abolish taxation entirely, while also scaling up such goodies and expanding welfare and handouts in general. He's the latest of the Peronists who have spent decades running Argentina into the ground, and the voters finally decided they'd had enough.

[Aurelius2]

What was so appealing about him?  He seems like a libertarian and always thought libertarianism only benefits very wealthy in society while bad for everyone else?

Argentina has 143% inflation. Massa, the candidate who Milei was running against, has been economy minister for the past year and a half as inflation has surged. Massa spent $8 billion handing out goodies to voters in advance of the election, and notably promised to abolish taxation entirely, while also scaling up such goodies and expanding welfare and handouts in general. He's the latest of the Peronists who have spent decades running Argentina into the ground, and the voters finally decided they'd had enough.

I get why people wanted Massa out, but why not vote for Bullrich who would move away from Peronism but not go for something crazy like libertarianism.

Bullrich is a neoliberal who is perceived as the candidate for rich people. Most of Argentina is poor.