Will be interested to see if this seat becomes competitive again under the right circumstances. Gianforte is dragging his feet on declaring for a second term so I wonder if something’s going on there. Given how he trounced Cooney last time round (while Cooney still held statewide office as well) and has maintained solid approvals since, I think an open seat is the only way D’s will have any chance here.
Speaking of Cooney, he was running for a position he wasn’t already occupying back in 2020 (as was Bullock), so that greatly reduced his incumbency advantage. Additionally, his political instincts weren’t as good as those of Bullock and/or Tester. Furthermore, from 2014 onwards the only Democratic statewide victories in MT have been incumbent officeholders running for re-election to their existing posts (which was true of Bullock in 2016 and Tester in 2018), while all other Democratic statewide candidates running for posts they hadn’t already occupied (this includes Democratic candidates who were termed out of their existing positions in 2016/2020) fell short in their respective races.
I agree with your points. It does seem however like the state is going down the same path as West Virginia, used to be quite friendly to downballot Democrats but is now picking them off one by one as more and more people just vote straight R tickets. Granted Cooney wasn’t an incumbent governor but as the lieutenant to a popular D governor facing an odious character well known for a public act of physical aggression, the race should have been closer than it ultimately was. The fact that both he and Bullock went down by double digits in their respective 2020 races poses a possibly insurmountable challenge to Tester next year. The problem is not that Republicans are winning all the downballot races now, but that they are winning them easily.
