JC's 2010 Prediction Thread

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Senate

Safe D's

Hawaii
Maryland
New York (Schumer)
Oregon
Vermont
Washington
Massachusetts

Safe D's, but could face tough fight depending on their predicament in 2010 

North Dakota (If Hoeven runs)
New York (Gillibrand) (If Giuliani /Pataki run)
Indiana (Depends on Healthcare vote)
Wisconsin (If Thompson runs)
California (If a strong GOP Nominee emerges)

Lean D's

Arkansas

Toss-Ups

Nevada
Connecticut
Illinois (might become safe D is Kirk keeps acting like a fool)
Colorado
Pennsylvania
Ohio
New Hampshire
Missouri
Delaware
Louisiana

Lean R's

North Carolina
Kentucky

Should be Safe R, but could turn toss-up

Florida (If Rubio is nominee)
Arizona (If McCain is defeated in primary)
Alaska (If Lisa, is  primaried or a scandal destroys her)
Kansas (GOP Primary will get nasty, Dems may make it a bit close)

Safe R

Utah
Idaho
South Dakota
South Carolina
Iowa
Alabama
Georgia

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Governor

Safe D's

Arkansas
New Hampshire
Maryland

Moderately Safe D's

Maine
New Mexico
Oregon
Illinois
Massachusetts
Wyoming (Only if Incumbent runs)
California *
Vermont *


Lean D's

Pennsylvania
Connecticut *
Iowa
Hawaii *
New York



Toss-ups

Tennessee
Michigan
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Ohio
Colorado
South Carolina
Nevada
Georgia
Arizona

Lean R's

South Dakota
Oklahoma *
Florida

Moderately Safe R's

Texas
Alabama
Kansas *


Safe R's

Idaho
Nebraska
Alaska
Utah


Third Party Safe or lean

Rhode Island *






* = Pick-up.

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These are pretty good, actually. I'd put KY as a tossup and NY Gov as safe Dem, but otherwise, I think I agree with a lot of this.

Kentucky would more likely be GOP-Lean, because Rand is shifting hard social conservative right. And Greyson has the "I'm a Clinton Republican" thing going for him. Plus it's Kentucky.

If Cuomo officially announces his run, then I'll move NY in safe-Dem.