JC's 2010 Prediction Thread

[pogo stick]

Senate

Safe D's

Hawaii
Maryland
New York (Schumer)
Oregon
Vermont
Washington
Massachusetts

Safe D's, but could face tough fight depending on their predicament in 2010 

North Dakota (If Hoeven runs)
New York (Gillibrand) (If Giuliani /Pataki run)
Indiana (Depends on Healthcare vote)
Wisconsin (If Thompson runs)
California (If a strong GOP Nominee emerges)

Lean D's

Arkansas

Toss-Ups

Nevada
Connecticut
Illinois (might become safe D is Kirk keeps acting like a fool)
Colorado
Pennsylvania
Ohio
New Hampshire
Missouri
Delaware
Louisiana

Lean R's

North Carolina
Kentucky

Should be Safe R, but could turn toss-up

Florida (If Rubio is nominee)
Arizona (If McCain is defeated in primary)
Alaska (If Lisa, is  primaried or a scandal destroys her)
Kansas (GOP Primary will get nasty, Dems may make it a bit close)

Safe R

Utah
Idaho
South Dakota
South Carolina
Iowa
Alabama
Georgia

[pogo stick]

Governor

Safe D's

Arkansas
New Hampshire
Maryland

Moderately Safe D's

Maine
New Mexico
Oregon
Illinois
Massachusetts
Wyoming (Only if Incumbent runs)
California *
Vermont *


Lean D's

Pennsylvania
Connecticut *
Iowa
Hawaii *
New York



Toss-ups

Tennessee
Michigan
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Ohio
Colorado
South Carolina
Nevada
Georgia
Arizona

Lean R's

South Dakota
Oklahoma *
Florida

Moderately Safe R's

Texas
Alabama
Kansas *


Safe R's

Idaho
Nebraska
Alaska
Utah


Third Party Safe or lean

Rhode Island *






* = Pick-up.

[xavier110]

These are pretty good, actually. I'd put KY as a tossup and NY Gov as safe Dem, but otherwise, I think I agree with a lot of this.

[pogo stick]

These are pretty good, actually. I'd put KY as a tossup and NY Gov as safe Dem, but otherwise, I think I agree with a lot of this.

Kentucky would more likely be GOP-Lean, because Rand is shifting hard social conservative right. And Greyson has the "I'm a Clinton Republican" thing going for him. Plus it's Kentucky.

If Cuomo officially announces his run, then I'll move NY in safe-Dem.

[President Mitt]

Put SC as safe Republican, it looks like the Dems are nominating Jim Rex, which means they will be destroyed no matter who the GOP nominates.

[Ronnie]

Put TN gov as moderately safe R.  There's little hope the Dems will win this one.

[CPT MikeyMike]

Looking at the current polls, if Hoeven runs, ND Senate race becomes a toss-up.

[War on Want]

Looking at the current polls, if Hoeven runs, ND Senate race becomes a toss-up.

I really doubt that Hoeven will run.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I know I'm beating a dead horse, but I still think Oklahoma should be moved to pure toss-up in the Governor's race.  Jari Askins (D) has a really good chance to beat Mary Fallin (R).  I know its Oklahoma, but we are still relatively blue at the state level and I think that will show 11 months from now.

[Хahar 🤔]

Safe D's, but could face tough fight depending on their predicament in 2010 

California (If a strong GOP Nominee emerges)

What strong nominee? Carly Fiorina?

[TeePee4Prez]

Governor



Lean D's

Pennsylvania

I hope you're right.  I think we, the Democrats, have to nominate Jack Wagner or Joe Hoeffel to even have a solid chance against Tom Corbett.  If Tom Knox slips through the cracks, we're screwed.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Governor



Lean D's

Pennsylvania

I hope you're right.  I think we, the Democrats, have to nominate Jack Wagner or Joe Hoeffel to even have a solid chance against Tom Corbett.  If Tom Knox slips through the cracks, we're screwed.

The fact that this seat is even in question is either a testament to the growing distrust that Americans have with the Democrats or the GOP gaining a full head of steam coming out of 2009.   I hope Flyers is right and the seat stays Democratic, but if the GOP has at least a shot in Blue PA, then that bodes well for the GOP in the rest of the country.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Governor



Lean D's

Pennsylvania

I hope you're right.  I think we, the Democrats, have to nominate Jack Wagner or Joe Hoeffel to even have a solid chance against Tom Corbett.  If Tom Knox slips through the cracks, we're screwed.

The fact that this seat is even in question is either a testament to the growing distrust that Americans have with the Democrats or the GOP gaining a full head of steam coming out of 2009.   I hope Flyers is right and the seat stays Democratic, but if the GOP has at least a shot in Blue PA, then that bodes well for the GOP in the rest of the country.

Actually, it's more the fact that for the past 50 years, the Pennsylvania governor's mansion has switched parties every eight years. Pennsylvania is not a "blue" state, rather it's a swing state that has been leaning towards the Democrats for the past decade.

[TeePee4Prez]

Governor



Lean D's

Pennsylvania

I hope you're right.  I think we, the Democrats, have to nominate Jack Wagner or Joe Hoeffel to even have a solid chance against Tom Corbett.  If Tom Knox slips through the cracks, we're screwed.

The fact that this seat is even in question is either a testament to the growing distrust that Americans have with the Democrats or the GOP gaining a full head of steam coming out of 2009.   I hope Flyers is right and the seat stays Democratic, but if the GOP has at least a shot in Blue PA, then that bodes well for the GOP in the rest of the country.

Actually, it's more the fact that for the past 50 years, the Pennsylvania governor's mansion has switched parties every eight years. Pennsylvania is not a "blue" state, rather it's a swing state that has been leaning towards the Democrats for the past decade.

it does that.  And yes, the GOP has a solid candidate while the Dems are scrambling between ideologies and regions.

[The Age Wave]

I'm undecided in the Dem primary.

[timmer123]

That provided me a good laugh.  The Kansas senate race becoming competitive?  Newsflash, Dems actually have to have a candidate to make a race competitive.  Louisiana is a Rep. win too.

[Deldem]

Move Texas to Lean R. Perry looks like he'll win the primary, and I have (dim) hope that we can beat the Secessionist.