The Big Bad Swedish Politics & News Thread

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

BTW all the Swedish posters should check out PolitikExtra on YouTube.
He does some rather funny political satire. (and he's good looking too)

SSU parody
MUF parody

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Since I'm suppouse to study for my finals, I made some maps...

Left-Right result for Sweden's 29 constituencies' since 1973. (First unicameral general election) 

Centre-right = M + C + Fp (+ Kd)
Centre-left = S + V (+ Mp)












The 1994 map gives me nightmares.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

With regards to the former, Västerbotten is interesting. What's behind that shift?

I'm not sure, but I have a few theories.

The county is much more urbanised today than it was in the 70's. In 1976 only 21% of the population lived in the largest city "Red" Umeå, but today it's 31% of the county's population that live there, and a lot are people from other left-wing areas in north Sweden.

The parts of Västerbotten that used to be it's centre-right heartland was also mostly rural/agrarian Centre Party voters, and as C declined as the major force on the right so did these old Centre strong-holds.

Also, I believe what pushed Västerbotten over the edge in the 70's also had a lot to do with home state advantage for Thorbjörn Fälldin.   


What I completly fail to understand though is Gotland, and how it went from the centre-right's 2nd best constituency to it's 18th best. 

 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Fäldin is/was from Ångermanland (I read once his memoirs). There is some free church areas in Västerbotten, which could affect the support of FP.

Which is right on the border of Västerbotten. And if I don't remember incorrectly he was only born in Ångermanland, but lived in Västerbotten.

And he's still alive. I met two of his grandkids at the Centre Youth Congress. ^^

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

And he's [Fälldin] still alive. I met two of his grandkids at the Centre Youth Congress. ^^

Have Fälldin made any statements on what he thinks of the Centre Party of today (certainly much more right-wing than in his time)? And what is the feeling amongst older Centre members in general about the current direction of the party?

Nope, he's not made any statements about the party for a decade as far as I'm aware off. But he's very old and frail. Older Centre Party members have not been happy about the party's direction, but that's a given.

BTW, do the constituencies correspond to counties? Or portions of counties? Or groups of counties? Or is there no relationship at all?

They correspond to the counties, but the three most populus counties (Stockholm, Västra Götaland, and Skåne) are split into smaller constituencies.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Some more maps.
Skåne County this time. (General election results '02-'10)



2002:



2006:




2010:




The right-wing shift of suburban/exurban Malmö is really faciating.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

And as a bonus, while we're at Skåne, here is a map of SD support in Skåne.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Great job

2010 (Yes, there is a 75%+ margin in Danderyd)

Lidingö isn't that far behind...

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Any particular reason the NW corner of Scania is so right wing? There are other rural areas in Scania that are far more balanced.

Because it's the most beautiful place in all of Sweden, and it's not just me who thinks that.
Thus it's a very popular place to live or have a summer house,  which makes it very expensive, which means it's very wealthy.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Some non-riots related Swedish news:

Big Bipartisan Compromise on Free Schools

Six of the major parties today announced an agreement on the Swedish free school system. Free schools are privatly owned schools that are open to everyone and financed through vouchers.

The compromise means that it'll still be possible to run these schools for a profit, while introducing stricer regulation and quality control, more and increased sanctions and punishments when the system is abused.

A very good and common sense agreement all in all if you ask me.

SKOP poll

A new poll by SKOP. It was taken before the riots began, so I wouldn't give it much weight after the last days.

M: 28,5%
Fp: 5,8%
C: 4,2%
Kd: 3,7%
S: 34,2%
V: 5,4%
Mp: 9,9%
Sd: 6,6%


Alliance: 42,2%

Left-wing: 49,5%

Sweden Democrats: 6,6%

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Can someone explain what church elections are fought over?

I'd prefer not to. It's a national emberrassment.

Centre Party (ALDE)
- Kent Johansson (undeclared) (replaced Lena Ek)

The rumours I've heard in the party is that he'll indeed run again.

In exactly one year, I will vote for the first time (except for the Church of Sweden elections this fall), in the elections to the European Parliament.

The EP elections were my first election as well. Can't believe it's already been four years. >.< Where did all the time go?

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Since we've had maps for Stockholm (largest county) and Skåne (third largest county) it'd be unfair to leave Västra Götaland (second largest) out in the cold.*
So here's some more maps:



2002



2006



2010





I discovered three things from this:

1) Suburban/exurban Gothenburg swung heavily to the right in '10, just like happened in Malmö and Stockholm. It would not be incorrect to say that the big cities' suburban middle-class won the 2010 election for the Alliance.

2) This county has way too many municipalities.

3) Västra Götaland East has some of the strangest voting shifts and swings ever. Forget Gotland, this is the new place I can't understand. At all. 


*It's worth noting that 52,3% of the entire Swedish population lives in one of these three counties.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

@Swedish Cheese: What's the likelyhood that Kent J. will be booted by Federley on the basis of more personal vote? Is Johansson known among the Centre Party voters outside the capital?

No idea actually.
I wouldn't be too hopeful for Federley though. Hanna Wagenius is also running, so the young liberal/libertarian faction will be split, and needless to say Federley isn't much loved by the farmer/sane faction of the party.

Personally I wouldn't mind having him shipped off to Brussels, so he can stop being a national emberrasment to us.  

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So, the poll of all polls

It's a vastly overrated poll.
But as always it'll be intresting to see results for sub-groups.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

It looks like the Centre party and the Christian Democrats are doing pretty badly. Is it because their voters are dying off (like the Christian Democrats and the Centre party in Norway), or is it because the voters are disillusioned by the Alliance government?

Christian Democrats are dying off.
Centre Party voters are disillusioned.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So, the poll of all polls - Statistics Sweden's biannual poll - is coming on Tuesday.

It's here:

S - 35,6%   131 seats
M - 26,9%   99 seats
MP - 8,5%   31 seats
SD - 7,7%   28 seats
V - 6,4%   23 seats
FP - 6,0%   22 seats
C - 4,2%   15 seats
KD - 3,6%

Centre-left: 50,5%   185 seats
Alliance: 40,7%   136 seats

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Which party do you think is the best party over-all?

Men:

S - 34,1%
M - 32,7%
SD - 7,9%
MP - 6,3%
V - 6,1%
FP - 5,0%
C - 4,3%
KD - 2,3%

Centre-left: 46,5%
Alliance: 44,3%

Women:

S - 39,0%
M - 26,2%
MP - 11,1%
V - 6,5%
FP - 6,2%
SD - 3,6%
KD - 3,4%
C - 3,0%

Centre-left: 56,6%
Alliance: 38,8%


Age: 18-29

S - 30,3%
M - 26,0%
MP - 16,1%
V - 8,4%
SD - 7,6%
FP - 4,5%
KD - 2,2%
C - 2,0%

Centre-left: 54,8%
Alliance: 34,7%

Age: 65+

S - 44,0%
M - 27,8%
FP - 7,0%
C - 5,4%
SD - 4,8%
KD - 3,8%
MP - 3,3%
V - 3,2%

Centre-left: 50,5%
Alliance: 44,0%

Immigrants

S - 49,1%
M - 22,1%
V - 10,2%
MP - 7,2%
SD - 3,9%
FP - 3,5%
C - 0,9%
KD - 0,9%

Centre-left: 66,5%
Alliance: 27,4%

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

By region:

(Whoever named these "regions" must be an idiot)

Stockhom County:

M - 36,7%
S - 26,2%
MP - 12,2%
FP - 8,2%
V - 7,0%
SD - 4,1%
KD - 2,5%
C - 1,2%

Alliance: 48,6%
Centre-left: 45,4%

South Sweden:

S - 34,6%
M - 33,1%
MP - 8,2%
SD - 8,0%
FP - 6,0%
V - 4,5%
C - 3,4%
KD - 1,4%


Centre-left: 47,3%
Alliance: 43,9%

Middle & Upper Norrland

S - 52,3%
M - 19,4%
C - 7,2%
V - 7,2%
MP - 6,1%
KD - 2,7%
FP - 2,6%
SD - 2,3%


Centre-left: 65,6%
Alliance: 31,9%


North Mid-Sweden

S - 43,2%
M - 19,0%
MP - 7,9%
V - 7,3%
SD - 6,9%
C - 5,9%
FP - 5,7%
KD - 2,9%


Centre-left: 58,4%
Alliance: 33,5%

East Mid-Sweden

S - 39,3%
M - 27,4%
MP - 6,9%
SD - 6,8%
FP - 5,6%
V - 5,1%
C - 3,9%
KD - 3,8%


Centre-left: 51,3%
Alliance: 40,7%

West Sweden:

S - 36,1%
M - 30,3%
MP - 9,4%
V - 7,5%
SD - 5,2%
FP - 5,1%
C - 3,1%
KD - 2,4%

Centre-left: 53,0%
Alliance: 40,9%

Småland and the Islands: (again, what idiot named these "regions"??!)

S - 38,1%
M - 27,9%
SD - 7,8%
MP - 6,2%
KD - 5,6%
C - 5,4%
V - 5,0%
FP - 3,1%


Centre-left: 49,3%
Alliance: 42,0%

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

3,9% of immigrants prefer Sweden Democrats, I guess those are mostly Finns and Swedish talking Finns.

Well there are a lot of Danish immigrants in south Sweden.

Do the results on neighbouring countries affect voting intentions on Sweden?

Nope, not in the slightest.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Just noticed that we get the poll results by constituency as well. I'll try to post that laterz.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

3,9% of immigrants prefer Sweden Democrats, I guess those are mostly Finns and Swedish talking Finns.

I'd be surprised if any Swedish-speaking Finns vote Sweden Democrats. Demographically they're as far from SD voters as one can imagine.

I'd guess those are mostly European immigrants from countries where xenophobia and islamophobia are much less stigmatized than in Sweden. Especially I imagine areas like the Balkans.

And Denmark, of course.

So are the Swedish speaking Finns mainly well paid academics and other upper middle class types?

Yes, the Swedish speaking population of Finland has historicly been either upper-middleclass academics and businessmen or well-off land-owning farmers, the ones who have immigrated to Sweden has tended to belong to the educated liberal middle-class.

They're very much the opposite of the Finnish speaking Finns that immigrated to Sweden who're poor working-class. Traditionally they've been strongly Social Democratic, but it wouldn't actually be that strange if some of them voted for Sd these days

 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

The Finland Swedes were definitely very rural and unacademic. The Finns were from smallholds and people working in forrest industry.

I'm not completly uneducated about Finland and the Fenno-Swedes and the history of your country. The upper-middle class of Finland was almost exclusivly Swedish-speaking before the 20th century.

There's a reason why the Stockmanns learnt Swedish when setteling in Finland and not Finish. Because when they emigrated to Finland in the mid 19th century that was the language of their social class, the upper classes.

So I know what I'm talking about in this case.

Also I'm not saying that there aren't and weren't a lot of rural swedish-speakers. As I said, they were also (in large parts) land-owning farmers. But the Swedish-farmers mostly stayed in      Finland, while the Swedish-speaking Finns that immigrated to Sweden came from the well-educated fenno-swedish middle-class. 

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

According to wiki:
Finlandssvenskarna har genom tiderna haft högre emigrationsbenägenhet från Finland än finnarna. Den första stora emigrationsvågen ägde rum mellan 1840 och 1930 och gick huvudsakligen till USA. Den andra emigrationsvågen som började i mindre skala på 1930-talet eskalerade kraftigt strax efter andra världskriget och riktade sig främst till Sverige. Under ett antal år i slutet på 1940-talet och i början på 1950-talet utgjorde finlandssvenskarna omkring hälften av alla emigranter som flyttade från Finland till Sverige. Den andra emigrationsströmmen av finlandssvenskar till Sverige sinade kraftigt i mitten på 1970-talet som en följd av den gynnsamma ekonomiska utvecklingen i Finland. Sverigefinlandssvenskarna har också genom tiderna varit mindre benägna att återvända till Finland än sverigefinnarna

None of that contradicts anything I said.

As for my "assumptions", naturally I was thinking of Nyland and Helsinki (and Åbo)
Österbotten might be the most Swedish-speaking area, but Nyland is historicly a Swedish county, and Helsinki used to be a city that was majority fenno-Swedish. That only changed in the last hundread years, not only because the Finnish speakers started to move in, but because the Swedish-speaking middle-class moved to Sweden.   

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Time for some shameless attention-whoring.  

I got to meet Swedish poitical star Margot Wallström yesterday. Now I don't agree with her politicly, but you have to give her respect for her work for human rights, especially for women. And she's obviously one of the most talanted poiticians we have in this country. (There are few who're basicly handed a Prime Ministership on a silver plate and rejects it... thrice)



I will admit that I was star-struck.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Are you in Visby Marbury, or are you just following it from home like me?
I saw Gustaf posting on FB that he's there at least.