Updated list of who is in and out of first GOP debate (FOX Aug. 6)

[Bull Moose Base]

Fox isn't dumb. They will adjust the arbitrary rules to get Kasich in and Trump out.

Why the Hell would FOX turn down having Donald Trump for free on their network? And sharing a debate stage with Cruz, Christie, Perry and Huckabee? Huge ratings and it also helps Bush, Rubio and Walker stand out as the serious options.

[Bull Moose Base]

I still think there's a chance that Kasich, as a "serious person", gets enough fawning media coverage from a campaign announcement that, combined with some favorable stories about establishment figures joining his campaign or what have you, he starts to get ~5% in the national polls.  Not saying it'll happen, but it's possible.  He has to nail his campaign rollout though, and he has to do it within the first ~10 days of July.

So yes, he *might* bump Perry out of the top 10, but otherwise I'd bet against the top 10 changing between now and the first debate.  Trump will obviously make it into the debate at this point.  Even if the Trump bubble were to deflate very quickly, he'll clearly be strong enough to remain in the top 10.

There's also a chance the media just won't be able to resist kicking Christie's a$$ after he announces and marveling over the car crash that are his presidential ambitions while fawning over Kasich. Don't give up on the dream of Christie not making the cut.

[Bull Moose Base]

Questions being asked about whether candidates who haven't submitted their financial disclosure forms will be invited to the debate:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/10/us/politics/donald-trump-republican-party-debate.html?_r=0

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Yeah I brought this issue up in the Mexico Trump thread. Bloomberg and WaPo are saying the statement from FOX means you need to have your financials in. From Bloomberg....

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Not sure what this will mean for Walker and Kasich, but both will be within their 30 day window to file their financials at the time of the debate

So the debate may include Trump, Carson and Jindal but not Bush?

[Bull Moose Base]

Looks like Kasich might be in after all. All he needs to do is lead Perry by 1 in the next poll and he'll get the 10th spot.

At this point, I'm guessing we'll see 2-3 new polls before the deadline and the last 2-3 polls we've seen (excluding PPP probably) will be used for the average. Whether it's 2 or 3 makes a big difference for Christie who, in the 3rd oldest poll (Suffolk), had a 2 point lead over Kasich, Perry, Santorum and Fiorina.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

2 most recent:
Christie's total is 6
Perry 5
Kasich 4
Santorum 3

3 most recent:
Christie 9
Perry 6
Kasich 5
Santorum 4

[Bull Moose Base]

I still think we will see 5 entirely new polls before the debate. Monmouith has confirmed they will do one and yesterday Chuck Todd said NBC will have a new one out in a couple weeks. CNN tends to poll at the end of the month so that is 3. I suspect that FOX would want their own poll to be one of the five polls so that would be 4. So you just need one more. Quinnipiac is due for a poll, they havent done one since May and McClatchy/Marist hasnt since March. And then there are other live phone pollsters that havent done any this cycle including CBS/NYT and Pew.

Maybe. The window is only 11 more days. If there are 5 more or even just 4, obviously the last 2 spots are wide open and no Christie seems pretty realistic. (Obviously all 10 spots are wide open if there are 5 new polls, but hard to imagine the top 8's #s changing enough to knock them out.)

[Bull Moose Base]

If we assume that Monmouth will have another poll out, and that Fox won't count PPP, the 5 most recent polls could be:

Unknown Monmouth
Unknown Quinnipiac
CNN/ORC
ABC/WashPost
FOX

If there are more, it could be that only CNN and ABC are included in the pre-debate average (or even just CNN), which is good news for Kasich and bad news for Perry as newer polls are showing Kasich ahead. Counting just CNN, ABC, and FOX so far, Kasich and Perry are tied for the 10th spot.

Huge bummer for comedy fans and Jeb Bush if Kasich edges out Perry.

[Bull Moose Base]

Ugh, no. I want Rick Perry and his glasses in the debate, not the boring Ohio guy.

My preferred scenario: Perry edges out and humiliates Christie, has a disastrous debate again. Christie, left out of the first debate then makes the second and begins the greatest political comeback of all time, only to get indicted during the primaries.

[Bull Moose Base]

Christie just claimed Monmouth has a vendetta against him, and even went so far as to claim they only polled New Hampshire as a way to get him.

[Bull Moose Base]

Will the percentages rounded up or not?

In that vein, what is the rule if two candidates are tied for 10th place?

They say that if there's a tie for 10th place, they'll just invite both the people who are tied, and have 11 candidates on stage.

But, AFAIK, they haven't explained if there will be rounding.  If the 10th place candidate is at 2.2% and the 11th place is at 1.9%, do they round both of those to 2% and say it's a tie?  I don't think they've explained that part yet.

Not to mention the numbers are rounded within each poll

[Bull Moose Base]

Ironic that the Monmouth helped Christie separate from Perry days after Christie was accusing them of conspiring to sink him.

Assuming those are the only 2 left, Perry would need to lead Christie by 3 total in those 2 to tie him. Not impossible.

[Bull Moose Base]

Do we know that Bloomberg will be included in the average? I wasn't aware that they conducted national primary polls, or if they conduct live phone polling.

They're doing it with Selzer though, which is one of the best pollsters out there, so it probably gets included.

Anyone think Fox will adjust the results of their own poll to get Fiorina or Jindal in for race/gender reasons?

The result they would need in Fox's poll would be absurdly high, and would be met with great suspicion.

Also not on FOX's agenda. I do think they'd be partial to Perry being up there given his willingness to mix it up with Trump and chance for a juicy brain-freeze. But probably not at the cost of losing Christie. But maybe they'll round up to get them both in.

[Bull Moose Base]

Chuck Todd said on Today he's hearing that FOX is uneasy about decimals, so likelier than not there'll be an 11th podium.

There's no reason for an 11th podium, since the gap between 10th and 11th place is ~1%.  No decimals.  There's a smaller gap between 11th and 12th than there is between 10th and 11th.  If you're going to include Perry at #11, then why not also include Santorum at #12?

It's true that regular math does not allow them a way to get Perry onto the stage (unless they did some major arbitrary poll cherry picking which would probably have to include them ignoring their own poll). However there is a very rarely used version of rounding called "floor rounding" where you round down to the nearest whole number. With that you get....

1   Trump    23
2   Bush    12
3   Walker    10
4   Carson    6 
5   Huckabee    6   
6   Cruz    6
7   Rubio    5
8   Paul    4
9   Christie    3
10   Kasich    2
11   Perry    2

12   Santorum    1
13   Jindal    1
14   Fiorina    1
15   Graham    0
16   Pataki   0 
17   Gilmore   0 

So if Fox really wants Perry in and there is a math astute guy in that room with Roger Ailes, then maybe they will pull 'floor rounding' out of their butts.

I figure they'd want Perry in to provoke Trump into an over-the-top response. But if they can't comfortably cheat Perry in, Trump will find a partner somehow.