~18 months ago, the buzz was about Christie and Rubio. Today, after the media narrative of both of their proto-candidacies supposedly imploding…..I'm still kind of thinking Christie and Rubio, because I don't know who else to put ahead of them.
I still think desire to win counts for a lot. Not desire to speak out about your favored issues, to create fame for yourself in the next term of Congress, or to score a book deal or do commentary on Fox News Channel…..but a desire to actually *win* the nomination (and if you're lucky, the presidency). Does the candidate really want to win? Are they willing to do or say whatever it takes to do so, or (like Perry 2012 for example) are they only bothering to run because they think there's an opening?
[People sometimes talk about being in the right ideological space to win the nomination. I'd say an alternative way of looking at it is just to look at who doesn't really have an ideology. The candidates who are committed to a particular ideology are at a disadvantage, because they can't be as flexible as the McCain/Romney types who'll say anything needed to win.]
Both McCain and Romney had that desire more than anyone in the GOP race in 2008, and they came in first and second. Romney had it more than anyone in the GOP race in 2012, and he won the nom. It's early to handicap this for 2016, but I do think Rubio has it more than most of the field, which is why I think many of you are underrating his chances. The only hesitation I have on that score is that he's still young, and so just coming in 2nd might be good enough for him to set up his chances for 2020 or 2024. And of course, he won't run if Bush does, but I still see that as a longshot.
So, anyway, I voted Christie last month, so I'll go with Rubio this time.
I'm not sure the mechanism by which "wanting it most" would translate into success in the primary, other than willingness to grovel for money and willingness to change your positions to please whatever group you had to please. I actually think almost every candidate is willing to do that, they're just betting on different groups. Rand Paul is the most noticeable flip-flopper this cycle but only because of the space between what his positions were and what they need to be to compete in a GOP primary. But he's not really any different on willingness to do that than anyone else as I see it.
Burke proving to be a temporary presence, I'm back to Walker winning the nomination.
Is she? It still looks like she has a very good chance of winning so I can't bet on Walker yet.
Jeb Bush.
Bush will be at the top of my list until he either announces he's not running or withdraws his candidacy.
Also, very tough to tell if he'll run and how he'll navigate his problematic issues.
This speculation is tough but I guess more fun while the field is so nebulous. For now, I'll stick with Cruz, who is almost definitely running, and who excites the base like no GOP candidate in the comparably open races of 2008 or 2012 did. People point to Romney 2012 as an example that moderates win, but I don't know if he would have won had Ted Cruz been his opponent.
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