The next flavor of the month after Gingrich?

[Bull Moose Base]

There are 7 weeks to go and with the desperation, frequency of debates and spending of money intensifying, I see Gingrich getting a short "month".  I'd been guessing Bachmann until I saw her woeful unfavorables, including, hilariously, upwards of 20% unfavorables from her own supporters.  I think Huntsman is likely to climb a bit in New Hampshire, which the media will no doubt latch onto and try to drum him up as the next flavor which would spark some backlash from the Tea.  But looks like Romney has a good shot at his ideal scenario: no consensus alternative to him after Gingrich peaks.  But I could also see someone else getting in, in December or even January.

[Bull Moose Base]

I'm not a jmfcst, but I can tell you I've been getting good vibes from Santorum, especially from the debates. He's generic enough, if you take away the whole gay marriage thing. Santorum will be next. Gingrich has "baggage with his baggage" a lot of which we've forgotten, and as that comes back into the limelight we'll remember why he was booted in the first place. December will be the month of Santorum.

However, I think Huntsman's attempts to paint himself as a solid conservative with a moderate streak will finally begin to pay off, resulting in a stronger-than-expected showing in New Hampshire, which might make him the next flavor-of-the month, putting him in a good position for Florida and Nevada.

Paul will never be flavor of the month. His brand of "conservatism", if you can call it that, is just too far-out for most to swallow.

If you look at where Huckabee and McCain were in polling a year ago and the volatility this cycle, the nomination turning into a Santorum vs Huntsman race seems plausible.  Glenn Beck is close friends with Huntsman Sr but has endorsed Santorum and called him the next George Washington.  If such a fight turned ugly, it could push him over the edge into stroke territory.

The last six weeks or so before Iowa is usually when the volatility of the polling *increases*.  But things have already been so volatile that I'm not sure how much faster things are going to change.

Presumably the focus will shift to Iowa, and the big changes in polling there will come as a result of the candidates actually putting up big ad buys there.  Will Gingrich actually be able to keep the party going if he has no money to run ads?

I don't know if past cycles were like this but Iowa polling has so far been way more responsive to the national press and momentum than to retail campaigning.  They'll probably converge a bit because so many of the December debates are in Iowa and all candidates except Huntsman will spend more time there, making gaffes and attacks, including ad buys.  But who besides Romney or Perry has any $ to spend in Iowa?  Presumably they'll both unload ammo on Gingrich if a month from now he's still looking this strong.  But even ad buys, the debates have shown at least damage people.

I'm rooting for a seven way-tie in Iowa with Romney, Gingrich, Paul, Perry, Cain, Bachmann, Santorum all getting exactly 14%.