Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

And all this time he was under arrest. You can consider that he served a year in prison.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

A small deer was rescued from the water in Antonivka, Kherson region.

https://twitter.com/loogunda/status/1666034376054849536

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

I've got a crazy theory...Prigozhin has been "turned" and is secretly working for Ukraine (or other western intel service).  He says and does crazy sh**t way too often, and not random crazy sh**t, crazy sh**t that actively harms Russia's goals in the "special military operation".  It seems like every third day he is either verbally attacking the Russian Army and it's leadership and every 6th day or so, he's actually attacking them with bullets or fists.

To be clear, I don't actually believe this theory.  Probably only a 20% chance it's true, I just wanted to be the first person to publicly push the idea.

Well, it's kind of like the relationship between the FBI and the local police, only in the Underworld version. The FSO stands above the Ministry of Defense.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

By the way, a couple of years ago there was a very funny case when the main Kremlin propagandist Solovyov tried to prove that Girkin is working for Ukraine. It didn't end with anything.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

If it was a crime against Denmark and Sweden, then it should be up to them to take action against Ukraine, and not Russia. It's also very telling that the Russians call this, as well as the strike on the Crimean Bridge, and the drone strikes on Moscow, as "terrorist" attacks, and not military attacks. That's because they simply refuse to recognize Ukraine as a sovereign state, since only sovereign states have a legitimate military.

It also proves the sense of entitlement on the side of Moscow: they should be free to wage a war of aggression without consequences, but then demand that their victim should treat them according to laws and principles.

It's the manner of the Russians since the First Chechen War, they called Chechen soldiers and partisans only "terrorists" or "gang formations". There is nothing more monstrous in God's world than post-Marxist propaganda.

And this way gave Russian military the right to treat Chechen military as armed non-combatants, saboteurs, that is, not to comply with any rules of warfare and keeping prisoners of war.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

As the counteroffensive snowballs, and based on casualty ratios, it's inevitable that the Allies will have to supply replacement Leopard 2s for Ukraine. The hundred they have now is nothing when you could be burning 3-5 a week. And in a war of attrition they're heading for, you're going to have to continue supplying more of your own arsenal as the Ukrainians continue being more dependent on Western equipment.

Good luck, as they already had a hard time scrambling the will to send the first wave of those tanks.

You may be right but you are making me hope for some very bad things to happen to you reading this in the most respectful way possible. The gloating really is awful.

Okay. I'm sorry. I'll refrain in the future from making it seem that way when posting in this thread.

No, no, please continue. The wave of your posts about downed Leopards reminds me of Konashenkov's semi-hysterical reports about hundreds of destroyed Himarses, which, translated from Newspeak, meant that the Himarses were kicking hard Ruscists' asses. And it's inspiring.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/russia-central-asia/article/3223450/ukraine-war-zelensky-denies-sabotage-nord-stream-russia-seeks-clarification

"Ukraine war: Zelensky denies sabotage of Nord Stream; Russia seeks clarification"

I wonder who is lying? Zelensky or CIA?

This information was not an official CIA statement, but a Discord message from a certain o Sr. Teixeira. So there's a third option.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/russia-central-asia/article/3223450/ukraine-war-zelensky-denies-sabotage-nord-stream-russia-seeks-clarification

"Ukraine war: Zelensky denies sabotage of Nord Stream; Russia seeks clarification"

I wonder who is lying? Zelensky or CIA?

This information was not an official CIA statement, but a Discord message from a certain o Sr. Teixeira. So there's a third option.

The Washington Post reported it.  I am happy for the "liar" to be the Washington Post who printed an article without digging into how authentic the story is.  Of course that would just mean that one should be skeptical of what Washington Post and other collective West MSM reports on the war which I think is the case anyway.

The Washington Post, like any normal media, honestly indicated the sources:

The European intelligence report was shared on the chat platform Discord, allegedly by Air National Guard member Jack Teixeira. The Washington Post obtained a copy from one of Teixeira’s online friends.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/06/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-ukraine-russia/

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

The Washington Post, like any normal media, honestly indicated the sources:

The European intelligence report was shared on the chat platform Discord, allegedly by Air National Guard member Jack Teixeira. The Washington Post obtained a copy from one of Teixeira’s online friends.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/06/06/nord-stream-pipeline-explosion-ukraine-russia/

Right, and for Washington Post to print the news they are obligated to get the USA government's take on it and a chance to deny it before printing it.  If the USA government denied it and the Washington Post failed to print that denial then that is very problematic on the part of the Washington Post.  If the USA government did not deny the report then we are back to who got their facts wrong/lying: USA government/CIA or  Zelensky.

Just to be fair, I think I misspoke when I used the term "lying."  It is totally possible the CIA got bad intelligence or  Zelensky's people are lying to him about the true state of affairs and he is passing on false information without knowing it.

The situation with media in the West is not at all the same as in Russia or the PRC. They are not required to seek government approval for their articles. The CIA might have been outraged if the article was maliciously manipulative unsubstantiated slander in the Marxist/post-Marxist style, but the article was merely analyzed one of Sr. Teixeira's well-known leaks.

Another difference from the media more familiar to you, the information reported by the West media is not considered the ultimate truth by default. Everyone understands that some of Sr. Teixeira's leaks may be military disinformation.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Wow, based on how intense the local wumaos became about the Leopards, we would assume that these tanks really threw the Ruscists into a panic.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Well, one thing is for sure: since the Russian military very often ride tank surface in a crowd, like poor Indians on trains, their losses in tank battles will be greater in any cases.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1667187285983469569?cxt=HHwWgoC9sZyAhaMuA...

For once I agree with Putin. End of tweet: "very long frontline."

https://twitter.com/WorldAffairsPro/status/1667203729513238529?s=20

This tweet is like a feint. Obviously, the big dam explosion deprived the Ukrainians of the opportunity to act in the Crimean direction. And an attempt to cut the corridor in the Donetsk region will only lead to getting into the pocket. I think there is no need for such feints, since all the commanders on both sides have already figured out each other's current plans.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Looks like Zaporozhye area will see rain in the next few days.  The mud will slow down any mechanized advances or movements by either side.

https://twitter.com/Eureka_News_ENG/status/1667832637568761856

Russia can always count on General Weather.

You managed to make the General Frost idiotic stereotype sound even more idiotic, even though it seemed impossible.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

"General Winter", "General Mud", "General Frost" and now seemingly "General Weather" are euphemisms for poor planning and logistics, and they are chaotic neutrals, not pro-Russian:
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kyiv_(2022)

Yes, I know they are not pro-Russian. I'm annoyed by the sheer illogicality of this concept, as if the frost or the mud is a magic from Golden Axe that hits only enemies.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Pretty crazy video.

"The Russian barrier squad (blocking unit, anti-retreat forces) shot the retreating Russian soldiers."

https://twitter.com/PaulJawin/status/1668200611307765761?s=20

Old habits die hard I see

It grows out of the structure of Russian society. There are блатные who can do anything, and there are disenfranchised people who can only serve блатных.

It gives rise to a funny situation that looks like something from a parallel universe, when they put real deserters to prevent desertion, or, for example, real thieves are assigned to prevent theft in an enterprise, or, for example, when racketeers of the eighties break into politics and special services in the nineties and then suppress those racketeers, who have not yet done so. Something similar happened in the 18th century with a robber nicknamed Ванька-Каин, then it was still an out of the ordinary event and became a legend. In modern Russia, this is rather the norm.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

This is an interesting, and sobering,  set of tweets about modern trench warfare. It is going to be a very hard and time consuming slog, particularly given, as we all knew, the lack of air superiority. When was the last time the US attacked anything without air superiority?

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1668482100050141184

The Ukrainian army has UAVs and drones, which are an alternative to air superiority and reconnaissance aircraft. This war represents a new era, a new understanding of aviation.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Terror bombing doesn't work in interstate wars (non-nuclear, anyway). In civil wars it can work if you're ruthless and evil enough (hello Syria). It didn't work in WWII, it didn't work in Korea, it didn't work in Vietnam, it didn't work in Iraq (don't tell me "Shock and Awe" wasn't trying to scare civilians), and it didn't work in any of the wars in Afghanistan. 

At this point, I feel that Russian missile strikes against civilians might simply be a reaction to the lack of success on the battlefield, instead trying to achieve anything. It's not like any of the previous missile strikes targeting civilians have dented Ukrainian morale at all.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1668563526548353024?s=20

In fact, the one who shoots does not know where the projectiles loaded by him will fly. They fire blindly at the coordinates provided to them. For example, the rockets that killed the children of Donbass at the railway station in Kramatorsk were signed by the Russians "За детей Донбасса", i.e. "(revenge) for the children of Donbass". And the people who provide the coordinates absolutely do not care about their accuracy or civilians who may be there, because they are in a hurry to report to their superiors about the next successful operation as soon as possible. They know that the extremists ruling the country will not punish them for the accidental deaths of civilians, and the society, which was brought up by extremists for more than a hundred years, will only be happy about mass deaths.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

In addition to all kinds of support bought from Iran/NK and extorted from Belarus (and the mysterious ship from South Africa), it's worth looking at other sources of military support to Russia which may become relevant in a longer conflict.

Nikkei Asia ran an analysis on military imports/exports and concluded it was probable that Russian military companies had bought back parts from India's and Myanmar's militaries (night vision components for SAMs and tank sights/cameras respectively).

The sum total $ of the examples they touch upon aren't big (only $150k for the night vision components) but this may not be the full picture, now or in the future. It is possible, but unlikely, that this represents defective equipment being returned - but this is more likely to be an excuse rather than the real reason.

Unarmed Chinese MRAPs have been delivered to the Tiktok Chechens:

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1666441410306768899
It's quite possible these weren't bought directly from China - perhaps in violation of a Chinese export license - and they don't mean much on their own, but China could be testing the waters w.r.t. sending military equipment to Russia.

These sources aren't major factors yet (not nearly as important as the Belarusian/Iran/possible NK support), but as Russian stocks run lower, they may be willing to do more to get help from abroad (and their efforts might pay off). Something to consider in analyses which usually assume Russia will have only its (and Iranian) industrial production to rely on.

It's a highly interesting topic to investigate, given that the Chinese Tiger armored vehicles are very similar to the Russian Tiger armored vehicles and are similarly equipped with an American Cummins diesel engine.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

This Maginotski line seems to have been built for show, and for the Governor's friends to make a quick buck.

It's never happened before, and it's happened again

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Meanwhile down in the "Subvert City" town of Leningrad / Saint Petersburg, a Russian Hip-Hop artist, had a concert disrupted by a massive police onslaught under allegations of "drugs", where also allegedly the artist said or sang a song to the theme of: "F**k the War".

EDIT: Forgot Link:

https://zona.media/news/2023/04/23/milano

Atlas Nation can be focused on minute little battlefield threads, cash flow and money, supplies of ammos and munitions, geo-politics, aspects and impacts within "Global South", Asia-Pacific, etc... but yet still perhaps sometimes neglect the realm of popular culture.

Don't have that on video, but might be available on Telegraph somewhere, so shopping for a couple other beats.

Personally not sure this dude is the best Russian Rapper on the planet, but still more difficult not speaking Russian.

Here are some samples from his Rap Mix... curious opinion what Russian language familiar speakers or comprehension think?

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Meanwhile a former image from a certain VA avatar pops up in the bottom of this search...

I haven't heard about this rapper, maybe just another passing freshman. Of the youth anti-war Russian musicians, the most famous are Icepeak, Pussy Riot, Shortparis, Oxxxymiron, Noize, Monetochka, Husky, Little Big.

By the way, some time ago, the ruscists had a heavy butthurt from this parody of Shaman's song "I'm Russian." The original song name is a common ruscist slogan, in addition to "Russia for the Russians" and "Orthodoxy or death".

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

On the lighter side of things:

https://twitter.com/lijukic/status/1669087000501075968?s=20

Those mustaches were supposed to stay in the eighties. Perhaps the whole point is that Belarus was mothballed in the eighties.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Lukashenko’s son is probably the sexiest person I’ve laid my eyes on this decade. After that it is that Teixiera edgelord with those full lips and then my one true love, Psy

Oh yes, those gorgeous mustaches automatically double or triple a sexiness.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Meanwhile down in the "Subvert City" town of Leningrad / Saint Petersburg, a Russian Hip-Hop artist, had a concert disrupted by a massive police onslaught under allegations of "drugs", where also allegedly the artist said or sang a song to the theme of: "F**k the War".

EDIT: Forgot Link:

https://zona.media/news/2023/04/23/milano

Atlas Nation can be focused on minute little battlefield threads, cash flow and money, supplies of ammos and munitions, geo-politics, aspects and impacts within "Global South", Asia-Pacific, etc... but yet still perhaps sometimes neglect the realm of popular culture.

Don't have that on video, but might be available on Telegraph somewhere, so shopping for a couple other beats.

Personally not sure this dude is the best Russian Rapper on the planet, but still more difficult not speaking Russian.

Here are some samples from his Rap Mix... curious opinion what Russian language familiar speakers or comprehension think?

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Meanwhile a former image from a certain VA avatar pops up in the bottom of this search...

Well, I now listened to a couple of his songs, I didn’t find anything oppositional, the topics that are common for modern rap are money, sex, boasting, drugs. By the way, it’s strange that Mizulina decided to find fault with this rapper about drugs, it’s like fined one specific Austin Mini for speeding, while it was driving along the autobahn and other cars continue to drive around at a higher speed.

Yes, this is really not the best Russian rapper, this is the level of a completely novice Russian rapper, and the quality of the recording is very low, it is unlikely that he can become popular in Russia. Even great PR from Mizulina will not help here.

I think the chanting of "F*** the war" at the concert is just what an adequate part of Russian youth thinks, who somehow escaped brainwashing. Unlike the conscious opposition musicians I listed above, he is more of a part of it than a leader.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

The Ka-52 helicopter is one Russia's significant achievements during it's defense so far.

https://twitter.com/GuyPlopsky/status/1669259839653179392?cxt=HHwWgMDTxdy-s6ouAA...
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1669263633661018113?cxt=HHwWgoC-jcibtaou...
https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1669262672590667776?cxt=HHwWgICwyc_jtKouAAAA

Translation from the doublethink language: since April 2022, these helicopters have been afraid to cross the front line, they have completely ceased to be used in offensive operations. And surely it makes no sense to use this huge bustling crap from the nineties as reconnaissance and strike aircraft, when UAVs took over these functions a long time ago.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Translation from the doublethink language: since April 2022, these helicopters have been afraid to cross the front line, they have completely ceased to be used in offensive operations. And surely it makes no sense to use this huge bustling crap from the nineties as reconnaissance and strike aircraft, when UAVs took over these functions a long time ago.

I'm unaware of any drone that can hover in place, pop in and out of terrain features, deliver a Hellfire antitank missile, and skedaddle back across the border at speeds exceeding 300kph.

If anything, it'll probably be like the complements between F-15EX and F-35. Former has the big weapons and radar and everything needed to make the enemy force regret every decision they've ever made, ever, and the latter acts as the eyes and ears that can slip in undetected and conduct some operations independently. Either one could operate in radio silence while the other delivers the actual strike package.

The Russian company ZALA has helicopter-type UAVs, which naturally can hover in place. It has UAVs that are capable of reaching speeds of 300 km/h. And of course there are UAVs, which themselves are an antitank missile, and they don’t have to run anywhere at all, because people don’t sit on them and kamikaze UAVs are cheap enough that it’s not a pity to lose them. In general, it has a lot of different types of UAVs. Glory to Russian corruption and the wooden-brain generals that the Russian military fails to use these developments to their full potential and has to use ancient crap.