Make a Bold Prediction for the 2012 election

[Mechaman]

Tancredo landslide-on the Constitution Party ticket

[Mechaman]

Johnson 2012.

I'm dead serious.

[Mechaman]

Johnson 2012.

I'm dead serious.

Any ideas on what a map for that might look like?

Probably would depend a lot on who his running mate is, but there would definitely be some new contests brought into play. Especially after Obama's popularity takes its inevitable nosedive.

Well sadly the evangelical and socially conservative turnout will be lower (and in some places might go Democrat). However, Johnson would suddenly become very competitive in plenty of D states that have a large population of civil libertarians frustrated by the Obama administrations passiveness on ending the Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the Patriot Act.
Here's what I think the map would look like, hell it might become a realignment election:

While in the Deep South Johnson would lose alot of votes he would become the strongest presidential candidate in the Mountain West since Reagan, winning his home state of New Mexico (which usually leans Democrat) with more than 60% of the popular vote. He would capture the entire western United States, even California and Washington (the latter's libertarian nature would finally reveal itself without a social con in the race). In spite of his overall weakness in the South (compared to previous GOP candidates) Johnson would do very well in Texas and Oklahoma thanks to those two states having very fiscally conservative qualities.
As you can see the South will become fractured due to the lack of turnout from evangelicals and social conservatives, causing quite a few states to go Democrat that otherwise would've gone Republican. However, in the place of those lost Southern states quite a few unlikely Republican states like New Jersey, Maine, and even Pennsylvania would go due to many moderates and even quite a few liberals becoming disillusioned with Obama's stances on foreign policy, the War on Drugs, DADT, and other civil libertarian issues.
Once again I will admit that this scenario is a bit insane, but I am sticking by it.

[Mechaman]

There are two dominant forces in American politics, Mechaman: evangelical Christians and labor unions.  There are a number of states where either of those is enough to win the vote.  These states aren't going to wake up with a socialist/fundamentalist hangover and magically become libertarians within a timespan of two years

Granted
I just feel like the time is coming for change! CHANGE GAWDDAMNIT CHANGE!!!!!

[Mechaman]

Johnson 2012.

I'm dead serious.

Any ideas on what a map for that might look like?

Probably would depend a lot on who his running mate is, but there would definitely be some new contests brought into play. Especially after Obama's popularity takes its inevitable nosedive.

Well sadly the evangelical and socially conservative turnout will be lower (and in some places might go Democrat). However, Johnson would suddenly become very competitive in plenty of D states that have a large population of civil libertarians frustrated by the Obama administrations passiveness on ending the Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the Patriot Act.
Here's what I think the map would look like, hell it might become a realignment election:

While in the Deep South Johnson would lose alot of votes he would become the strongest presidential candidate in the Mountain West since Reagan, winning his home state of New Mexico (which usually leans Democrat) with more than 60% of the popular vote. He would capture the entire western United States, even California and Washington (the latter's libertarian nature would finally reveal itself without a social con in the race). In spite of his overall weakness in the South (compared to previous GOP candidates) Johnson would do very well in Texas and Oklahoma thanks to those two states having very fiscally conservative qualities.
As you can see the South will become fractured due to the lack of turnout from evangelicals and social conservatives, causing quite a few states to go Democrat that otherwise would've gone Republican. However, in the place of those lost Southern states quite a few unlikely Republican states like New Jersey, Maine, and even Pennsylvania would go due to many moderates and even quite a few liberals becoming disillusioned with Obama's stances on foreign policy, the War on Drugs, DADT, and other civil libertarian issues.
Once again I will admit that this scenario is a bit insane, but I am sticking by it.

I'd reverse KY and TN. The GOP is stronger in Tennessee, and KY is very similar to West VA in voting patterns at least now. Otherwise, it'd be nice to see a change from the norm.

Like this?

[Mechaman]

What do I honestly think will happen right now? First of all, no health care reform passes before the end of the year. It may pass early next year, then again it may never pass.

Job losses will probably continue into next year, with a flat-line sometime around Spring. That means that unemployment will probably peak sometime between May and November. By election day, voters are still very angry, and the GOP makes major gains. The Democrats manage to hold onto the Senate with 50-55 votes, saved by their poor showing in 2004. On the House side, they are not so lucky and either lose their majority or almost lost their majority, but probably the former. Either way, Nancy Pelosi resigns as House Speaker.

Sometime between January 2010 and January 2012, it becomes clear that Sarah Palin will be the Republican nominee, and it won't even be close. Huckabee doesn't even run, and Pawlenty and Romney try to run but drop out once they have read the tea leaves.

The Democratic legislative agenda is deeply unsuccessful. If health care passes at all, it is the Democratic Congress's last major initiative, except for financial reform, which is saved only because of massive populist anger at banks and broad-based consensus for some change. Cap and trade fail to pass. Any sort of immigration reform fails to pass. Obama's popularity continues to plummet. Finally, in 2011 and 2012, the Democratic party abandons its agenda and takes a sharp turn towards the center.

The public is highly engaged, and it is known from early on the race will be Obama vs. Palin, two highly polarizing personalities. The general mood is bitter and angry in the face of high unemployment and deficits, although these are generally improving slowly. A large portion of the electorate is willing to vote third party, although it is unclear whether any billionaires can step up to the plate. As a result, 2012 is the longest and most grueling general election campaign in modern history, effectively lasting from 18 to 24 months. The result is uncertain, but if the economy is sufficiently recovered, a more humbled Obama can be re-elected, barring unforeseen circumstances.

Wow this is bold..

[Mechaman]

Here's a bold prediction:

Obama kicks the can in late 2011 and Biden ends up as president and decides to run for re-election just to torment us longer. Due to the "legacy" effect he wins election. Also to further the torment he runs in 2016 just because he is that awesome!