Barrio Latinos could easily turn to voting like Blacks, if the GOP keeps on its current discourse. (Adjusting for citizenship rates, it might even come true for turnout one day.) But I don't see any reason to make integrated HINOs changing their current marginal D voting patterns.
Hispanic in Name Only?
You know I was about to make a comment about how hard it is for one to trace back their ethnic origins or whatever but you make an interesting point here. There is a growing number of "integrated" Hispanics out there that identify politically like the average white person.
Hell, second and third generations exhibit a high rate of defection to Protestantism. Granted, a study in 2000 showed that 70% of Hispanic Americans identified as Catholic, but a lot can change in 10 years, a lot more in 20 or 30. Although there has been a renewal in xenophobia amongst the Republican Party if the trend of integration continues for middle-upper Hispanics (who could become increasingly Protestant) the voting demographics of that group could become decisively less Democratic as more and more Hispanics start identifying with mainstream white America.
Kind of like the integration of the
other HINOs, though that is a bit more complicated when you take in account of the Protestant Scotch Irish who were already here long before the huge Catholic wave of immigration in the 1840s and 1850s. Aww hell f*** it, you guys knew where I was going with this anyhow.
Point is that when it comes to immigrants from overwhelmingly Catholic countries it is usual for the first few generations of new Americans to lean Democratic because they perceive them to be the party of immigrants and because of perceived nativism on the other side. Later on as their descendants begin to integrate into the American culture they begin to turn Protestant, go up the income bracket and then shift Republican (maybe not become Republican but lower the usual heavy Democratic margins).
Just a theory folks, please don't go apesh*t.
With that said though I don't see Hispanics voting 95% Democratic anytime soon unless an insane crazy who is running on a platform of "shoot to kill" border defense and "deport all the spics" is running on the Republican side.
