Arizona poll from PPP: Romney+9 (user search)
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  Arizona poll from PPP: Romney+9 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Arizona poll from PPP: Romney+9  (Read 2683 times)
5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

« on: September 11, 2012, 07:07:57 PM »

Looks like a reasonable poll of AZ, good news.  Basically, south Utah with an increase of Hispanic population.
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5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2012, 02:21:54 AM »

Purportedly, Team Obama wanted to campaign in Arizona but decided not to because of security reasons (high chance of him getting shot)
Source, otherwise I'm only going to believe the story slightly.
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5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2012, 05:34:21 PM »
« Edited: September 12, 2012, 05:52:56 PM by RockyIce »

What would happen if Gary Johnson decides to swing by AZ and is able to take away some Romney voters and makes the state competitive?? Tongue

Most polling indicates Johnson takes from Romney and Obama about equally...

This is in fact not the case.

This is in fact the case -- if anything, most polling actually shows Johnson taking slightly more from Obama than Romney:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/09/obama-up-by-3-in-colorado.html

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/07/obama-lead-in-new-mexico-declining.html

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/08/obama-remains-ahead-in-nevada.html#more

The only polls PPP has done with Johnson are the three above and the recent Montana poll (that I could find using Google). Johnson's impact is R+1, R+1, 0, and D+2; which averages out to 0. I couldn't find polling including Johnson from other pollsters.

Once people vote and Johnson is on the Libertarian line, he will hurt Romney like all libertarians steal votes from Republicans.

Well, that goes against available statistics (in other words, you are pulling the idea Johnson is hurting Romney out of your ass). Plus, a lot of belief about where the third-party vote comes from is wrong; most people who vote third-party always do so, they aren't stolen from anywhere. I remember reading an article a few years ago -- unfortunately I can't find it now -- that actually said Ralph Nader helped Al Gore in Florida, because he attracted environmentally conscious and far-left voters to the ballot box (otherwise they may have stayed home), where some amount probably realized Nader had no chance and voted Gore; this, the author said, explained exit polling which showed Bush winning Florida by a full percentage point if Nader wasn't on the ballot. But, then again, exit polling isn't famed for accuracy.
Johnson is only taking more votes away from Obama in CO is the legalization of marijuana. On the other states, not sure what takes more away from Obama. Maybe foreign policy and ending the war.
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